Wired Magazine: Data from March 2025 shows that Tesla has sold only 46,096 Cybertrucks in 14 months, far below the annual sales forecast of 250,000

Recently, Wired magazine published an article that the latest Cybertruck recall revealed some surprising situations. Tesla appears to have sold only 46,096 Cybertrucks since it began delivering them to customers 14 months ago. This sales volume is far lower than the number predicted by Musk in the weeks before the car was launched; he told investors that Tesla would soon be able to sell 250,000 Cybertrucks a year.

During an earnings call a month before the production car is expected to launch in November 2023, Musk boasted that Tesla had received "over 1 million" reservations for the Cybertruck and said that "demand is extremely strong."

"The auto industry typically targets conversion rates of around 2% to 16% for reservations," said Stephanie Valdez-Streety, director of industry insights at Cox Automotive. By that calculation, Tesla's conversion rate is just under 5%. That's on the lower end of the conversion rate spectrum, but many experts accustomed to Tesla's super-high sales volume might consider it a failure. Analysts generally don't treat Tesla as a regular car company. Its stock has a high price-to-earnings ratio and is valued several times higher than those of car companies with higher sales.

If Tesla's expected sales figures are measured against manufacturing capacity, the company is bound to be very disappointed, as the Texas Gigafactory where the Cybertruck is produced has the capacity to build more than 125,000 of these pickup trucks per year. But poor sales of the Cybertruck reportedly led to workers being transferred from the "Cyber" production line to the Model Y production line.

Tesla’s current high market value is not based on its actual sales, but on the expected sales of driverless taxis and humanoid robots that have not yet been launched. Just like the Cybertruck, which was originally planned to be launched three years before production, but was delayed, these products may still be years away from mass production.

On March 20, Musk said at a Tesla employee meeting: "My predictions have always been accurate." But no one present dared to ask him whether he predicted that the current wave of boycotting Musk is causing Tesla's global sales to decline.

Although Musk boasted at the employee meeting that Tesla is "undoubtedly the most innovative company in the automotive industry," this is not the case. Chinese automakers like Xpeng, NIO and Li Auto are far ahead of Tesla in autonomous driving and other technologies.

Waymo is already offering a driverless taxi service. Tesla isn't the only company planning a humanoid robot future, either. Writer Peter Diamandis says 15 other companies are in the race, and none of them has a leader as controversial and divisive as Musk.

"This year, we're on track to build about 5,000 humanoid Optimus Prime robots," Musk said. "That's the equivalent of a Roman legion. That's pretty scary to think about, like a whole robot army. I'm like, 'Wow.'"

Musk went on to excitedly claim that Tesla "will probably make about 50,000 humanoid robots" next year. He further claimed that Optimus Prime "will be the best-selling product of all time, bar none, and 10 times larger than the next best-selling product. Ultimately, I think we'll be making tens of millions of robots a year." A few seconds later, he even went further and said that Tesla will actually "probably make 100 million robots" a year.

Musk’s grandiose predictions have excited Tesla bulls who believe his claim that “I understand manufacturing better than anyone alive today.” But in the real world, Musk runs a car company that can’t even choose the right glue for its body panels.

Musk's controversial Cybertruck, which has been recalled for the eighth time in the past 14 months for problems including faulty wipers, a sticking accelerator pedal and possible loss of wheel power, is now seeing sales plummet. According to estimates by Cox Automotive, Cybertruck sales fell 32.5% in February from the previous month.

"The Cybertruck generated a lot of attention with its unique design and ambitious specifications," said Streety of Cox Automotive. "However, sales fell short of expectations due to higher-than-promised pricing, lower range and payload capacity, and production issues. The unconventional design failed to resonate with traditional pickup buyers, and fierce competition from Rivian and Ford also intensified the market."

She added that Cybertruck is "a niche product with a unique design and high price that may not appeal to mainstream consumers. In addition, recalls and quality issues will seriously undermine customer confidence and sales, posing a major challenge to Cybertruck's success in the market."

Experts estimate that Tesla has invested at least $2 billion in the development of Cybertruck. Olaf Sorensen, a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, estimates that due to the Cybertruck's stainless steel body panels and unconventional construction, it may need to sell up to 300,000 vehicles a year to make a profit.

Any novelty factor that may have driven initial Cybertruck sales has certainly worn off by now. Earlier this year, a Morgan Stanley research note cited "slowing Cybertruck sales growth" as a reason for lowering Tesla's sales growth forecast for 2025.

Other analysts have also expressed concerns, with Cybertruck seen as a drag on Tesla's valuation. Swedish billionaire hedge fund manager Christer Gardel recently issued a stark warning about Tesla's stock. He said on Swedish television that Tesla's valuation could fall sharply.

"Tesla is probably the most expensive stock on the stock exchanges in the world right now," Gardel said. "It could go down 95%, and maybe it should go down 95%."

Ultimately, Musk may come to regret ever saying his predictions “have always been accurate.” During a 2023 earnings call, Musk admitted that Tesla was “digging its own grave with the Cybertruck.” If the brand continues on its current trajectory, he may be right about that.