Xiaomi Auto sets its first FLAG for 2025 - to deliver 300,000 vehicles. Whose share will be eaten up?

After entering the stock market, if anyone in the Chinese auto market takes a bigger bite, there will definitely be someone who takes a smaller bite, or even gets nothing to eat.

During the New Year's Eve live broadcast two days ago, Xiaomi Chairman Lei Jun set the first FLAG of the new year for Xiaomi Auto, setting the delivery target for 2025 at 300,000 vehicles.

In the past year, Xiaomi Auto has revised its annual target again and again, from 70,000 to 100,000, 120,000, and 130,000, and finally achieved 135,000 deliveries. At the same time, Xiaomi Auto's sales network has covered 58 cities and 200 stores.

As Lei Jun said, Xiaomi achieved "undimaginable results" in 2024.

It is not uncommon for car companies to shout slogans in the New Year, but if the car company is Xiaomi, it may be a different story. After all, in the past year, Xiaomi has achieved good results in terms of product strength and market reputation. The only thing that can stop it now is production capacity. The delivery target of 300,000 vehicles may be a relatively conservative number in the future.

Now, the size of the Chinese auto market pie is basically fixed. If Xiaomi really sells so many cars next year, it means that the market share of other automakers will be eaten up.

Some people may wonder, can 300,000 vehicles affect the current automobile market structure?

Lei Jun's words in the live broadcast may be able to answer this question. He said: "Maybe many friends don't know much about car manufacturers. Many car companies may not have sales of more than 300,000 vehicles in more than ten years. Reaching 300,000 vehicles is not an easy target. BYD, the most outstanding car manufacturer today, also took 10 years to reach 300,000 vehicles."

Therefore, the answer to this question is undoubtedly yes. Once the 300,000 target is reached, the living space of some car companies will be squeezed, or even kicked out of the market.

So, the next question is, looking at the current car industry, who is most likely to be "hit"?

As a newcomer in the automotive industry, Xiaomi will focus on new energy vehicles, and its main target will be new power brands. In the past two years, the automotive industry has been fiercely competitive, and after a fierce battle, there are less than 10 new car-making forces, and some of them even have monthly sales of less than 1,000.

Yu Chengdong once said that in the future, competition among auto brands will be like the mobile phone industry, with no more than five major players left. Now it seems that the industry is moving towards this result.

Among the few remaining main forces, Weixiaoli, Leapmotor, and Nezha are likely to be benchmarked by Xiaomi Auto. Among them, Ideal's performance is relatively stable. As early as the third quarter of 2024, Ideal Auto's delivery volume reached 152,831 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 45.4%.

According to recent data, in December 2024, Ideal Auto delivered 58,500 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, setting a new record for Ideal's monthly delivery volume. As of December 31, 2024, Ideal Auto delivered a total of 500,500 vehicles in 2024, with a sales completion rate of 100.1%.

Moreover, Ideal Auto has always been obsessed with extended-range vehicles, while Xiaomi Auto is currently mainly involved in pure electric vehicles, which is basically not on the same track as Ideal. Although it is rumored that it has plans other than pure electric vehicles, it is still unknown whether the specific power form of the new car will overlap with Ideal's price and product positioning.

From this perspective, it is unlikely that Xiaomi will be able to capture an ideal market share.

NIO is also an early entrant in the automotive industry, and its current market position is relatively stable. In terms of sales, NIO will deliver a total of 222,000 new vehicles in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 38.7%.

Weilai focuses on pure electric vehicles, which is highly similar to Xiaomi Auto. However, Xiaomi Auto and Weilai have different market positioning and user groups. Weilai focuses more on the high-end market, while Xiaomi Auto focuses on cost-effectiveness to attract young users. Therefore, Xiaomi is unlikely to shake Weilai's market share.

It is worth noting that in order to make profits as soon as possible, NIO has also been planning new brands in the past two years. Putting aside Firefly, a small car brand that focuses on overseas markets, NIO is using the newly released Ledao brand to target young users. In terms of appeal to young consumers, Xiaomi Auto may have more advantages. From this perspective, it is still possible for Xiaomi Auto to gain some market share of the Ledao brand in 2025.

Let's look at Xpeng Motors. Among the "Wei, Xiaopeng and Li Auto", Xpeng Motors is undoubtedly worrying. According to relevant data, in the first half of this year, Xpeng Motors' revenue was 14.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.2%, and its net loss was 2.65 billion yuan, compared with a net loss of 5.14 billion yuan in the same period last year. Xpeng Motors' interim report shows that it has been incurring operating losses since its establishment. By the end of the first half of 2024, the accumulated losses were 38.4 billion yuan.

Judging from the delivery data, Xpeng Motors delivered 190,100 new vehicles in 2024. Although this increased by about 34.2% compared to 2023, its sales target for 2024 was reduced from 280,000 vehicles to 200,000 vehicles. This is enough to show that its development is somewhat weak.

Xiaomi Motors has raised its 2024 targets repeatedly, and the market performance is quite optimistic. Now, Xiaomi Motors and Xpeng Motors are basically in the same echelon in terms of sales. The prices and positioning of Xpeng P7i and Xiaomi SU7, the main sales models of Xpeng, overlap. If Xiaomi SU7 continues to perform well, then Xpeng Motors' market share is likely to be greatly squeezed.

Another company that is likely to lose market share is Nezha Auto. Nezha Auto and Xiaomi Auto both attract young users and have overlapping products, so they could have become direct competitors.

Since 2023, Nezha Auto has been experiencing a cold winter. Its new car sales in 2023 were only 127,496 units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.16%. In the first nine months of 2024, Nezha's cumulative sales were only more than 80,000 units, and it has not been seen to announce its sales since then.

Nezha's development momentum is insufficient, and Xiaomi Auto is growing rapidly. There is a great possibility that Nezha's potential users will turn to Xiaomi.

In the automobile market, whoever has the strength will have the seat at the table. At present, Xiaomi Automobile has great potential. If Xiaomi can keep up with its production capacity and technology and maintain a good reputation, even mainstream new power companies may have to worry about their market share being squeezed.

In the 2025 new energy vehicle elimination round, Xiaomi fired the first shot. Who will be hit in the bud will be revealed in half a year rather than a year.