What is the existence of a pig farming O2O project that is said to be valued at 1 billion US dollars?

[[153523]]

Wang Dapeng was going to the countryside to raise pigs. Before leaving, he asked me out for dinner.

He said: Pig farming is a big hot spot.

I asked: Why? Wang Dapeng was going to the countryside to raise pigs, and before he left, he asked me out for dinner.

He said: Pig farming is a big hot spot.

I asked: Why?

He said: When the wind is right, even pigs can fly, so I have to raise pigs.

I said: Damn.

He added: So I plan to do pig farming O2O.

I asked: How to do it?

He said: It’s very simple, raise pigs offline and sell them online.

I asked: So you want to open a pig farm?

He said: No, I will build a pig farming platform. I will first invest money, do offline promotion, acquire offline pig farms, then make an app, vigorously promote online, and sell at a loss. Others sell for 19 yuan per kilogram, and I sell 19 kilograms for one yuan. Pre-orders will be open at 12:00 a.m. every day. Flash sales. Dimensional strikes. Kill all meat sellers and form a monopoly. Then build a community and then an ecosystem. Continue to sell chickens, ducks, cows, sheep, and grasshoppers.

I said: Awesome. No, it’s a pig.

He said: My story is very big. The money and people are all in place. The angel round alone is valued at 5 billion yuan. I have a sales team of 1,000 people. Now I am ready to buy train tickets to travel around the country.

I said: Then go quickly, why do you need me here?

He said: No, before buying the ticket, let me ask you, where do you think is the best place for me to acquire a pig farm?

After saying that, he looked at me with burning passion in his eyes.

I'm not good at answering this question. Pig farming is a kind of animal husbandry, which is generally developed in non-urban areas. But seeing his passionate eyes, I decided to help him.

So I made a phone call. A good friend of mine who specializes in econometrics sent me a national county economic census. I found the economic indicator of meat production and put it on a national scale. It looked like this:

[[153525]]

In terms of production, the meat production areas in China form a clear belt-shaped corridor, stretching diagonally from the northeast to Hainan, and forming a continuous area in the Sichuan Basin and Yunnan. Among them, according to a rough statistics, there are 581 county-level units with an annual production of more than 50,000 tons (marked in red).

There are 581 counties. Assuming that the number of "pig farm acquisition promotion team" in each county is 10, Wang Dapeng needs at least 5,810 people to form a platform-level monopoly at one time. Therefore, despite having a luxurious promotion team of 1,000 people, Wang Dapeng can't help but feel a little worried.

He asked: These are too many. Can we select some more?

Well, I'll give you what you want. Actually, it's not so scientific to just choose meat production. It's better to refine the indicators. But before that, I need to understand the specific needs first.

So I asked: What are your in-depth thoughts on this project? For example, do you have any other requirements for the pig farms you want to acquire? Or is this a commercial secret that can't be discussed casually?

Wang Dapeng's eyes began to burn again, and he became incessant:

This is a highly confidential business plan, but given our relationship, it's okay to talk about it.

First, I play the ecological card.

The surrounding environment of the pig farm should be good, and the customer experience should also be good. In the A round, I plan to raise another 1 billion yuan to acquire a smart home company and install various smart devices, such as cameras and air purifiers, one for each pig pen. The camera is directly connected to the customer's mobile phone. When you click it, you can see that the pigs are all living in the green mountains and clear waters. It's both exciting and sentimental.

What indicators are better for this requirement? I suddenly had an idea. According to the development characteristics of China's rural areas, industry will inevitably bring pollution. Therefore, the lower the industrial output value, the better the ecological environment will be.

I found the industrial output value indicator from the economic census data. After standardization, it was placed on a national scale map. It looks like this:

[[153526]]

As can be seen from the picture, the greener the color, the better the environment we think. Generally speaking, the areas with better environment are in the northeast, northwest, southeast mountainous areas and the entire southwest region.

But before I showed this picture to Wang Dapeng, he started talking again:

Second, I play the logistics speed card.

In the B round, I plan to raise another 2 billion yuan, acquire 10 cold logistics companies, and launch a lightning pork delivery service. I guarantee that orders placed at night will arrive in the morning. I have even thought of the advertising slogan: We are not pigs, we are just pig porters.

What indicator would be better for this requirement? But before I could think about what new indicator to choose, he couldn't stop talking:

Third, I play the local human resources card.

Think about it, I invested several billion yuan in the angel and A rounds, and the pig production increased by a hundred times. The whole village had to raise pigs. There had to be enough human resources, and once the employment rate went up, the county party secretaries would line up to chat with me.

Fourth, I play the human cost control card.

It’s not just about raising pigs. I’m going to raise another 5 billion yuan in the C round to set up a property management company, build a security, veterinary and sanitation team, one for every five pig pens. One year later, we will upgrade from pig pens to real estate, overtaking others. We will split and list.

But I have a strong sense of crisis.

So, fifthly, I have to play the competitive barrier card.

The local Internet penetration level must be low enough, and it would be best if the whole village does not even have a broadband interface, and the villagers have never seen Taobao, and all their mobile phones are Nokia, and they can't even use QQ. Otherwise, what if my idea is so awesome and it is copied by BAT? They have big capital, strong technology, low morals, and no pressure to crush me.

How about that? Can you help me find the pig farms that can meet my requirements?

I was just trying to help, but now I was so excited by what Wang Dapeng said that I wanted to elope to the countryside with him and embark on the dream of changing the world by raising pigs. But in the spirit of science, I still asked weakly: You have too many indicators. I have to search for more data. At the same time, modeling, screening and verification will take a lot of time. How about I give you a preliminary result next week?

Wang Dapeng slammed the table and said: How can the Internet industry wait for a week for the results? It has to be fast, right now!

I was deeply shocked by his determination, so I gritted my teeth and said: Okay, then I will select the indicators for you now.

1 Meat production indicators. District and county economic census data have been obtained.

2 Environmental indicators. Replaced with industrial indicators logarithmically, it's done.

3 Logistics speed index. How to do it? Take the distance from the county to the nearest provincial capital (which may not be in the province) as the speed index. Generally speaking, China's logistics system is arranged according to the hierarchy of "province, city, prefecture and county", and the provincial capital is often a regional logistics hub. It's about the same. It's done.

4. Local industry human resources indicator. How to do it? Use the number of people engaged in agriculture in the county to measure it. Although growing grain and vegetables may not be the same as raising pigs, compared with people working in the secondary and tertiary industries, at least the primary industry practitioners have seen pigs run. Choose this indicator. Done.

5. Local labor cost index. How to do it? Use the per capita savings level of the county to measure it. Poor people have low costs, and the logic is very smooth. It's done.

6 Internet penetration index. How to do it? Use Taobao online merchant index to measure it. Wait for me to make a phone call later and use the relationship of Ali Research Institute. See which counties have the weakest online merchant development, and they must have the deepest Internet barriers. Already done.

Soon, I calculated all these indicators and landed on a national scale, which looked like this:

[[153527]]

In the above figure, from left to right, the first and second rows are: meat production distribution, environmental index distribution, distance to the nearest provincial capital distribution, county agricultural population distribution, per capita savings distribution, and Alibaba online merchant index distribution.

Wang Dapeng and I sat side by side, looking at this magnificent map, as if we were seeing a bright future.

Suddenly, Wang Dapeng broke the silence and asked: Investors may have seen these data. Are there any cooler core algorithms of econometric models?

This is simple. How can we use these six indicators to build a model that can be applied to the O2O business model? We can modify the coupling model in physics and make an "ultimate pork acquisition model". To put it simply, it is like this:

If Wang Dapeng requires that every indicator in the pig farming O2O project must not be too bad, especially there must be no obvious shortcomings in the indicators, that is, to follow the "bucket effect", then we can adopt the coupling degree model.

If, in the pig farming O2O project, Wang Dapeng hopes that certain indicators will be particularly prominent and one or two pain points will be maximized, regardless of whether there are shortcomings, then we can adopt a comprehensive development model.

If Wang Dapeng hopes to balance the coupling degree and comprehensive development in the pig farming O2O project and seek a safe middle ground, then we will combine the two indicators to create an "ultimate pork purchasing model."

This model probably looks like this:

[[153528]]

I finished writing these formulas on the blackboard and was about to explain them when Wang Dapeng interrupted me with his passionate eyes:

Great, since the investors won’t understand anyway, just tell me the conclusion using that acquisition optimization health model.

OK. The result looks like this after it lands on the map:

[[153529]]

As can be seen from the above figure, after the six indicators were used to screen the pig farming corridors in China, only a few areas were left that were more suitable for Wang Dapeng's project, which were located in the Northeast, Henan and Anhui in the Central Plains, Hunan, Guangxi, eastern Sichuan, and Yunnan.

Considering the size of Wang Dapeng's angel round marketing team, I decided to help him select the 100 counties (or county-level cities) with the healthiest pig farming O2O projects. The list is as follows:

[[153530]]

Wang Dapeng asked: "So, what about the first batch? Please help me pick out 20 more."

OK, please see the picture below.

[[153531]]

Wang Dapeng read each name in the picture carefully: Well, fortunately, the top rankings seem to be in the same place, Changchun. This also means that the initial field sales staff do not need to be too scattered, and it is easier to concentrate. Not bad.

I said: Yes, you can start from Nong'an County. It seems that the three models here are the most suitable for your project.

Wang Dapeng held my hand tightly and said emotionally: "Xiao Tuan, thank you so much. When the company is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, I will definitely take you to ring the bell. But before that, I have one more thing to ask of you."

I lowered my head and said shyly: What's the matter? Tell me.

The passion in Wang Dapeng's eyes burned even more vigorously. He seemed to have mustered up a lot of courage and said to me:

Can you lend me some money to buy a train ticket to Changchun? K76 hard seat is not expensive, only 273.5 yuan.