What changes will happen in the mobile gaming industry in 2016?

In this maddening industry, there is only one thing we can agree on: it is always changing. Since the launch of the App Store in 2008, the entire gaming industry has been in constant change, although sometimes some emerging products cannot survive in this industry for a long time.

One month, all the media was talking about Ouya (an open source game console based on Android 4.0), but somehow the topic suddenly changed and everyone was talking about smart TVs... We don't need to be serious about why there are such big contrasts between these two products, because no one takes them seriously anymore. So now the question is, what will happen next? With only a few months left in 2016, we can't help but wonder, what will become the mainstream of the gaming industry in the next twelve months? What services will be loved by users and what products will be favored by developers?

Let's sit down and have a nice exchange of ideas here and see what might be in store for 2016.

Prediction #1: Ad network integration

There are signs that mobile advertising is recovering, with in-game ads proving to be one of the main revenue sources for developers in 2015. This uptick will trigger a new round of consolidation among major ad networks, with mergers and acquisitions narrowing the industry.

We can't be too sure about this. One of the issues developers currently face is choosing between ad networks (unless they tap into a product that can bring all the big ad networks together into one workable solution), so anything that can inspire them will be welcome. Some of the existing network companies may come together, and in the video industry, expect leading companies such as Google and Facebook to play a larger role.

Mobile ad spending in general is already dominant, with eMarketer claiming Google and Facebook spent $28 billion in 2015, half of which was spent in the U.S. (Google’s share was about 35% of the total, Facebook’s share was about 17%), and the study on market dominance insists that this trend will continue until at least 2017.

Prediction #2: Mobile and PC games will become bedfellows

Cross-platform may be going mainstream for most developers—true iOS and Android exclusives are increasingly rare—but it hasn't always been easy to combine PC and mobile games in a way that's easy to do. In 2016, that will start to change.

We predict that smartphone and PC gaming will become increasingly connected through apps - although we've talked about this a lot before - and this will become a reality for developers, not just a theory. In 2015, Fallout Shelter was a great example of a mobile game being made to support a controller or PC IP, and its success is likely to lay the foundation for similar adaptations.

Fallout Shelter has been a huge success on both iOS and Android

In part, this is because the two platforms have come to compliment each other; smartphones are no longer competitors to PCs and Macs, but simply components of our lives. Likewise, tablets haven’t destroyed laptops, they’ve just come to carry the manufacturers’ games.

Developers have been talking about the increasing number of independent developers on the PC platform before, and now platforms like Steam have begun to help more independent studios get their projects online. Microsoft is working hard to make every device possible to install Windows 10, and cross-platform carriers will become more and more popular in the market, blurring the line between mobile phones and computers further in 2016.

Prediction #3: YouTubers and bloggers will become more important than charts

For too long, the charts have become a self-fulfilling prophecy. To get a spot at the top of the charts, you either cross-promote one app to get it at the top, another, or spend a lot of money to acquire and accumulate enough users that the app lurks slightly lower in the charts, hoping to use momentum to push it up.

We've been doing this for a long time because the key factor influencing the charts is downloads, but we're starting to think that this influence is starting to wane. Players are getting smarter, and more and more insightful players are blogging, and some video blogs have huge followings. This will grow even more in 2016, and YouTube will be much more important than the charts, and we shouldn't focus too much money on user acquisition.

Prediction #4: VR will take off, but not at home

Over the past few years, the vast majority of activity in the games industry has been around VR. In 2016, VR will have a profound impact, but it's unfounded to think that gamers will only play with Oculus in their bedrooms.

What is clear is that whether we are talking about Oculus, Sony, Valve or HTC, their technology is relatively mature and can provide players with unique VR experiences, but this does not mean that players will only play this in their living rooms or living rooms. Putting aside the issue of giving VR devices a suitable price (which will undoubtedly hinder VR devices from becoming truly mainstream), players will think it is stupid to wear a VR headset alone at night to play a stupid game of "Call of Duty", "Halo" or "Fallout".

HTC's Vive is a bit of a beast, and it's been making a big splash since its announcement

However, the impact of VR on gamers is still significant, and may have a similar effect to watching 3D movies: best for movies, but not for playing games at home. 3D TVs failed because people didn't want to be glued to them all the time, but this didn't stop 3D movies from becoming the norm in theaters. Regarding VR devices, we will see a more profound impact in 2016.

Prediction #5: Mobile gaming growth will slow, but play time will rise

We’ve taken for granted the continued growth of mobile gaming in recent years, especially since the iPhone entered the industry. But in 2016, the growth rate is likely to slow down.

At least in the West, smartphone users have reached saturation, and most users rarely take the initiative to upgrade their phones, but will buy a new one every two years. For smartphones, games are one of the core pillars, and it is not just a few people who play mobile games - every generation in the family, regardless of gender, age or status, owns a smartphone and they will play games at least once or twice.

While the growth of the gaming industry will slow down in 2016, the amount of time people spend playing games on their mobile phones will rise significantly. Developers have spent the past few years mastering how to take full advantage of leading mobile devices and their expertise has led to a large number of games appearing on the market that better integrate with each mobile gamer's lifestyle, which will increase the amount of time each player spends on their mobile phones in 2016. This gives developers a huge opportunity to make players as immersive as possible in their games.