The wolf in the tech world is coming and why it hasn’t come yet

The media always want to make a big news, and the same is true in the technology circle. In order to be different, editors and reporters are never afraid of sensationalism, but they are afraid that you will find it boring. So there are news headlines like: "Automation will take away 100,000 jobs in the next 20 years", "Robots are coming and humans are facing large-scale unemployment", "New breakthrough in battery technology: iPhone battery life reaches 7 days", "The 200 billion market is beckoning, and driverless cars are ready to go", "Google allows the world to access the Internet: 1 billion US dollars to build 180 satellites", "Human life in the next 100 years: Mars vacation underwater city" . I don't know how you feel about this kind of news. When I see such headlines, I always feel like I hear the cry of "wolf" again. When I click on them, the content I see is nothing more than "maybe", "probably", "in the future", etc. In short, the meaning is: this function cannot be realized at this stage.

It is no wonder that so many people want to speak up for Yue Fei. “False accusation” has existed since ancient times and is still active today.

So let’s talk about why these news are the wolf coming, and why the wolf hasn’t come yet.

The concepts of robots and automation have been hotly discussed for a long time. Asimov proposed the famous three laws of robots in his "Robot Series", which are called "the cornerstone of modern robotics". The fantasy about robots has a long history. Zhuge Liang's "wooden ox and flowing horse" in the Romance of the Three Kingdoms is actually an early simplified version of robots, 1,700 years earlier than the modern robots. The "Tang Wen Pian" records that the skilled promoter who was born with the craftsman Yanshi "sings in tune with the rhythm when the skillful man nods his chin; dances in rhythm with the rhythm when he holds his hands. It changes in thousands of ways, as long as he is satisfied." It vividly describes a robot that is almost indistinguishable from the real thing. According to records, this robot is made of leather, wood, glue paint, and pigments such as white clay, black charcoal, and cinnabar. King Mu of Zhou was greatly impressed by the work of nature. King Mu of Zhou reigned from 1003 BC to 949 BC, 3,000 years ago. This means that humans have been fantasizing about robots for at least thousands of years, but we are still so far away from the era of robots. The main reason is that there is a huge difference between intelligent creatures and inanimate objects, which cannot be compensated by simple programs and logic.

The term battery technology revolution is very interesting. Almost every year, an individual or organization claims that they have discovered or invented a new method that can effectively increase the efficiency of battery use and provide such and such a huge change in production and life. At first, the public still believed it, but after a few years, more than a decade, the status of lithium batteries is still unshakable. The so-called battery technology breakthroughs during this period were either found to be academic fraud, fictitious, or the technology was immature and there were safety hazards, or the materials were scarce and the commercial conditions were insufficient. In a word: you can't see them in the consumer market.

Autonomous driving is a hot technology at the moment, and various manufacturers are competing to promote its development. However, safety issues have always been a sword of Damocles hanging over their heads. Important automobile companies such as Google and Tesla, which are competing in the field of new technologies, rely heavily on third-party suppliers to assemble their vehicles, which means that they may not be able to check all the codes of their autonomous vehicles. For hackers, it is easy to attack a car and take over all components from brakes to radio. More importantly, all driverless cars rely heavily on software design and cannot make effective adjustments to real-time road conditions, resulting in this seemingly promising technology not being able to make any breakthroughs. On the other hand, comprehensive popularization and commercial use also requires a lot of time.

Let's talk about satellite Internet access . Using satellites as global Internet access connectors sounds good, right? Users can access the Internet through computer satellite modems, satellite antennas and satellites. However, the reality is not as good as fantasy. First of all, you need a device to receive satellite signals, which has isolated most users. Secondly, the price is not cheap. A 2013 document shows that if you use the buyout terminal method, the basic version of IPSTAR satellite broadband 1M costs 596 yuan/month, and the professional version 2M costs 996 yuan/month. It is more than ten times more expensive than wired Internet access. The Internet access efficiency is still very low, and users need to actively apply to relevant operating companies. Motorola once spent a huge amount of money to promote the "Iridium Plan" but it always ended in failure. Overall, this is an industry with high input and low output. In the current network environment, the market is not ideal.

As for human life in the next 100 years, it is a bit far away from us, but it is certain that a vacation on Mars in 2116 is unrealistic. First of all, Mars is not suitable for human habitation. The atmosphere, which is mainly composed of carbon dioxide, is thin and cold, with sand and dust suspended in it, and dust storms often occur every year. The temperature difference between perihelion and aphelion is nearly 160 degrees Celsius, and the average surface temperature is minus 55 degrees Celsius. Vacationing under such conditions? Let's not talk about anything else. Let's talk about how to go there. Mars is about 55 million kilometers away from the earth. The United States' "Spirit" Mars rover took nearly seven months of flight to successfully land on Mars. Such a device with a cost of 414 million US dollars has a design life of only three months. The investment cost of the Curiosity Mars rover reached 2.5 billion US dollars. How can civilians afford such a large cost? So far, no human footsteps have set foot on the surface of Mars. The great humankind set foot on the moon, which is very close to the earth. However, almost half a century has passed. Apart from those astronauts who were selected from thousands of people to shoulder national missions, how many of us can complete a vacation trip to the moon? Not to mention Mars, which is more than 100 times farther away than the earth and the moon, and has even harsher conditions. In comparison, being a Martian is much easier than going on vacation to Mars.

In short, if you want to ask why the wolf hasn't come yet, I can only tell you that the conditions are not yet ripe. The revolution has not yet succeeded, comrade, please wait patiently. If you don't want to sit back and wait, then your inventions and creations may also change the status quo of the times.