Throw a bucket of cold water on foldable screen phones. They really won’t be popular this year.

The development of science and technology is getting faster and faster. The "brick phone" was popular for decades, but it was transformed into a full-screen mobile phone in 2017. However, in less than two years, a new term "folding phone" has appeared again. Many problems have also emerged. The high price and worrying quality are difficulties that need to be overcome. Faced with such folding phones, I have to pour cold water on everyone.

The technology is immature and manufacturers are unsure

First of all, we need to know what is the attraction of foldable screen phones? In fact, it is the larger screen than ordinary phones. Recall that we have waited nearly 40 years from the two- or three-inch screen of feature phones to today's full-screen phones. Now, it is obviously unrealistic to transition from full-screen phones to foldable phones in just two years.

There are still technical difficulties in folding screens, such as yield rate and folding hinges. Even if products have been launched today, most people are unlikely to tolerate their thickness.

Previously, when I attended MWC, I gave the products on display a very nice name - "showcase products". This means that the current folding phones can only be displayed. If you want to hold them in your hands and play with them, there is still a long way to go.

You can tell the authenticity of the picture above at a glance. It is impossible for current technology to make the unfolded screen of a foldable phone so perfect.

Previously, I had the honor of interviewing an insider in the screen industry. His words pointed out the current status of foldable phones: mass production is impossible, the technology is too immature, and manufacturers only bring out their works to occupy a niche. Putting aside the foldable phone technology, the screen is too prone to wrinkles after being folded multiple times for a long time, so you can't possibly feel it.

In addition to technical difficulties, the software level is also a gap that is difficult to cross for the time being.

At the end of last year, Google released Android P optimization for foldable devices on its official forum, which mentioned three features: screen continuity, task resumption and multi-display. Yes, this is what Google can do now. But for users, it is obvious that we can't use it to our heart's content.

The hardware technology is not mature and the software level is not fully supported, so today's foldable screen mobile phones can only become "showcase products". Like 5G, it also takes time to make up for it.

The high price means it is not a civilian phone.

The price of a foldable phone is also a very high threshold. If you want to buy one, you have to spend at least 10,000 yuan, and what you get in return is just a market test product. Can you accept such a result?

Nowadays, OLED panels are basically monopolized by Japanese and Korean companies, and the same is true for the hinge, the core technology of foldable phones. There are problems with technology, cost, and supply, and these are problems that cannot be remedied in a short period of time. This is a very big challenge for mobile phone manufacturers, and naturally makes the price of foldable phones soar.

If there are still netizens who want to wait for the release of foldable phones this year to play with them, I advise you to give up this idea. Large screen = high power consumption = high battery requirements, and you still want a low price, which is quite contradictory.

Why are users looking forward to foldable phones?

The current situation of the mobile phone industry is very worrying. The turnover of various manufacturers has gradually declined, and the market has become saturated. Traditional mobile phones and even full-screen mobile phones can no longer meet the needs of users. Products with the most innovative spirit are what users pursue.

The mobile game and video industry has developed by leaps and bounds. Traditional mobile phone screens can no longer meet users' daily audio and video and gaming needs, and even limit the expansion of many application scenarios. The emergence of foldable phones can just meet everyone's needs in this regard, which is the most important point that users expect foldable phones to be launched.

The second is innovation. Smartphones have been developed from scratch for many years, and the interaction mode has always been a topic that we have to pay attention to. The emergence of foldable phones is bound to break this mode and create a new interaction mode. In the early years, fingerprint recognition and facial recognition caused a global sensation when they appeared, which led to changes in the entire industry. The emergence of foldable phones can also bring new vitality to the entire industry.

The real commercialization of 5G is the time for foldable screen mobile phones to rise

At present, China's and even the international manufacturing industry is constantly networking and intelligent, but today's connection technology can no longer meet the factory's needs for low latency, big data and other precision. The advent of 5G will be able to provide the Internet with a peak rate of more than 10GB and millisecond-level transmission, which will enable technology to develop faster.

Only when science and technology develop can technical difficulties be solved, and this is when foldable screen mobile phones will truly rise.

Now that we are talking about 5G, it is necessary to tell you when it will be commercially available. According to the news from MWC Shanghai last year, the three major Chinese operators have almost set the time for 5G commercialization at 2020.

China Mobile: Currently, China Mobile has promoted 5G scale trials in five cities, and it is expected to build more than 100 5G base stations this year and 1,000 5G base stations by the end of next year. It is understood that China Mobile plans to open 5G product testing to industry customers at the end of 2018; friendly user testing will be available in October 2019, and commercial use will be officially realized in 2020.

China Unicom: China Unicom will conduct 5G scale experiments in 16 cities this year, and is expected to build more than 600 experimental networks. The next step will be to conduct cooperative experiments in ten major industries such as industry, sports, video, and smart cities to enrich 5G applications. Unicom will conduct large-scale demonstration applications and trial commercial use of 5G services in 2019, and plans to officially commercialize them in 2020.

China Telecom: China Telecom was one step ahead, releasing the "5G Technology White Paper" on June 26 last year. This is the first white paper released by a global operator that comprehensively expounds on 5G technology views and overall strategies. The white paper proposes that China Telecom chooses 4G/5G collaboration and fixed-mobile convergence as the short-term and medium-term development strategy for 5G wireless networks, core networks, and bearer networks. The overall technology evolution strategy is in line with China Telecom's network reality, which can avoid frequent network transformation, reduce networking complexity, and reduce network investment. (Data from MWC Shanghai Exhibition)

It will take another year for 5G to be truly commercialized, and by then foldable screen mobile phones will be able to "break out of the window" and meet everyone.

***, if you are still looking forward to foldable phones after reading this, I advise you to consider buying one next year, not now. What do you think?