The “disappearing” mobile Internet

“Mobile Taobao” has finally been renamed “Taobao”.

The name "Mobile Taobao" seems like a relic of the PC era. It finally got rid of the traces of the previous generation yesterday. When the PC was the main terminal, we needed to add a modifier prefix like "mobile phone". But today, mobile Internet is no longer an object that needs to be emphasized and educated, and the modifier "mobile phone" should finally be removed.

Just like "Mobile Taobao" became "Taobao", "Mobile Baidu" had already become "Baidu" a year ago.

Behind the change in product name is the change in the entire media and market.

The era of coexistence of PC Internet and mobile Internet has ended. The product form of mobile phones is no longer a "subset" but has become the main body of most mainstream Internet products.

The mobile Internet is also “disappearing.” With the formation of super apps, other small apps have begun to become the service tentacles of super apps in various forms, and super apps are becoming more and more basic, while dividing their own territory and covering the entire population.

In the foreseeable future, the carrier of mobile Internet - mobile phones will gradually "disappear". The advent of intelligence will deconstruct the interaction that was originally focused on mobile phones, and everything will be connected, including scenes and entrances.

So a few questions are raised. When the mobile dividend has peaked and mobile Internet has become the new normal, will it become as desolate as PC Internet? In addition to moving towards industry, where can the end of the Internet be? After mobile Internet "disappears", what will the future look like?

The Lonely PC Internet

It’s only been a decade since the first iPhone was released, but people can no longer imagine a world without mobile phones.

As McLuhan said, media is an extension of the human body. When portable and compact tools like mobile phones appeared, everything about the PC Internet was reborn and evolved on them. Mobile phones extend our vision and hearing, making it possible to "do whatever you want, anytime, anywhere."

New media and new entrances have also brought new opportunities to the Internet. The world that once existed on PCs has undergone a complete reshuffle here.

WeChat has brought all Tencent products into the mobile era. In May 2012, Tencent's last major restructuring officially divided its business into six business groups, especially integrating mobile-related businesses. The adjustment of the Mobile Internet Group (MIG), the independent upgrade of the WeChat Group (WXG), and several adjustments to Mobile QQ and Mobile QQ Browser have determined the status and development direction of mobile products.

Baidu's mobile search share exceeded that of PC in 2014, and its mobile revenue exceeded that of PC in 2015. At that time, it had already established a mobile strategy. In the past two years, after clearly consolidating its mobile foundation and winning the AI ​​era, it has comprehensively adjusted its content strategy and transformed itself into an information flow app. After a series of heavy investments since the Spring Festival this year, it has become a super app that cannot be underestimated in terms of total time spent by the public.

Alibaba's pace was not very fast, but in 2015, Taobao Mobile's DAU exceeded 100 million, making it the fifth app in China to have DAU exceed 100 million after WeChat, QQ, UC and Baidu Mobile. In March 2015, Taobao's mobile GMV accounted for 51%.

But from the perspective of the overall market environment, while mobile Internet has become the focus of all spotlights, PC Internet seems to be a little lonely. When PC Internet was still the premise, Internet companies used "Mobile Baidu" and "Mobile Taobao" to distinguish them, but now, the disappearance of the word "mobile" seems to symbolize the end of PC Internet - not many new things will emerge, and the mobile world has become the default.

The trend of mobile Internet

According to the latest data from CNNIC (China Internet Network Information Center), as of December 2018, the number of Internet users in China reached 829 million, with only 56.53 million new Internet users added throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. Among them, the number of mobile Internet users reached 817 million, accounting for 99% of all Internet users.

The number of Internet users increased by only 3.8% in 2018.

This data shows that the dividends from the shift from "PC" to "mobile" have been eaten up. And from the gradual decline in the growth rate of Internet users, it is foreseeable that the traffic dividend will be exhausted. Especially under the acceleration effect of mobile Internet, this moment has already arrived.

Apart from the traffic dilemma, the mobile Internet has presented an unshakable pattern. Super Apps have gradually taken shape in the mobile Internet era. At the same time, after more than ten years of market education, user habits have become increasingly stable.

For this reason, when the mobile dividend has peaked and mobile Internet has become the new normal, everyone naturally turns to looking for additional traffic and tapping the value of existing traffic.

Moving towards "incremental" markets such as the sinking market and the silver-haired market is to solve the problem of "new traffic".

For example, official data from the Baidu World Conference shows that the monthly active users of more than 20 apps in the Baidu family have reached 990 million after deduplication. The positioning of all users will inevitably force leading companies like Baidu to strive to increase product penetration at all levels and in all regions.

The rise of Pinduoduo and Qutoutiao also seized the opportunity to enter the lower-tier markets.

In addition to acquiring new traffic and expanding the market, extracting greater value from existing users is another option. Service-oriented and efficiency-oriented are two key words.

In terms of services, the mobile Internet, which has experienced extensive growth, has begun to provide more diversified services and has begun to enhance the value of existing users by expanding different entrances and businesses.

Mini Programs can be regarded as new territories opened up by super apps such as WeChat, Baidu, and Alipay in their own ecosystems. As a convenient user portal, Mini Programs can reach different scenarios and efficiently activate users. At the same time, the diverse applications carried on Mini Programs also make super apps platform-based, and can build open and diverse business formats within their own systems.

Therefore, various giants are currently continuing to invest heavily in mini programs. In addition to the mini program-style enclosure movement, for companies, expanding the business chain is the most basic and practical way to increase value.

Many giants have extended their tentacles into financial businesses with higher barriers to entry, in order to enhance the value of individual users and increase the contribution of existing users based on the existing huge user base.

In terms of efficiency, in addition to continuously expanding territory, improving business efficiency within a single business format and obtaining greater single-user value than others is also a way to build one's own moat.

Everyone is "making it thicker". WeChat is no longer just a social platform, Baidu is no longer just a search platform, and Taobao is no longer just an e-commerce platform.

Behind these super apps is a complex ecosystem.

Another clear trend is that the future of the Internet and mobile Internet will no longer be limited to the single medium of mobile phones.

Robin Li once said: "In the next 20 years, people's dependence on mobile phones will gradually decrease. The reason is intelligence, because the era of artificial intelligence has arrived. The arrival of this era will gradually fill the environment around people with various sensors, and these sensors can respond to people's needs more conveniently."

The portability and connectivity of mobile phones have made them a symbol of mobile Internet. In the future, as IoT and Internet of Vehicles develop comprehensively, mobility may also mean more possibilities for more media. New media, new platforms and new ways of interaction may bring new opportunities and growth space to the market.

Zhang Fei, an early investor in Kuaishou, once expressed the view that "the development of the Internet is like the evolution of life, which is the multi-level growth of a complex system. The birth of a new thing will not simply disappear. Even the PC Internet, which has become less active, is still playing its role."

While new technologies such as 5G and AI are forming their own energy fields and preparing to go, the mobile Internet is also embracing the future by integrating with these new technologies and the new business models that come with them.