Domestic oil prices may see their first increase this year! How much will the increase be? Attach details

During the epidemic, the rise and fall of oil prices have attracted global attention. Due to the launch of relevant policies by many countries, oil prices fell for a time. According to the latest news, domestic oil prices may see their first increase this year. How much will the increase be? Or what impact will it have? Will international oil prices continue to rise?

Domestic oil prices may see first increase this year

At 24:00 today (28th), a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil will open. Many institutions predict that domestic oil prices may see their first increase this year.

The reporter found that since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 11 adjustments, including 8 suspensions and 3 reductions. The prices of gasoline and diesel have been reduced by 1,850 yuan/ton and 1,780 yuan/ton respectively. It is worth noting that since the price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on March 31, domestic refined oil prices have been stranded for six consecutive times due to the international crude oil price being lower than US$40 per barrel.

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It is worth noting that since the price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on March 31, domestic refined oil prices have been stranded for six consecutive times due to the international crude oil price being lower than US$40 per barrel. If the current oil price increase is implemented, the domestic refined oil price adjustment in 2020 will present a pattern of "one increase, three decreases, and eight stagnation".

Will international oil prices continue to rise?

Citibank said that OPEC+ is still maintaining its efforts to curb crude oil supply. U.S. shale oil production has declined recently. The average target for Brent crude oil futures in the fourth quarter of this year is US$48 per barrel, and the average target in the fourth quarter of 2021 is US$61 per barrel. The crude oil market in 2022 is relatively optimistic because the OPEC+ organization has done a good job in complying with the production cut agreement, some crude oil production projects have been postponed, and global crude oil production has declined.

The bank believes that the average price target for Brent crude oil in 2022 is US$59 per barrel, and the average price target for Brent crude oil in 2023 is US$55 per barrel. Global crude oil demand will continue to grow as countries relax lockdown measures. But global crude oil demand will not reach 2019 levels until the second half of 2021. Crude oil inventories will see a strong build in mid-July.

Regarding the future trend of international oil prices, Haitong Futures stated that in the medium and long term, the logic that fundamentals drive prices upward is still valid, and there is a high probability that there will be a supply shortage in the second half of the year. It is expected that after this round of correction, if the demand side does not disappoint, oil prices will return to the general upward trend in the future. Satellite data showed a strong recovery in traffic flows in major economies around the world, suggesting improved fuel demand. Data provided by technology company TomTom shows that traffic jams in Shanghai have increased in recent weeks compared with the same period last year, and traffic conditions in Moscow have returned to last year's levels.