A universal formula for user growth

I have always believed that no matter what you do, we are all in the same industry in some sense.

Because everything grows.

from "What skills should ordinary people learn to make a comeback? | Attachment: Knowledge Map》

Whether you want to design an event to attract 10,000 new users for a product;

I still have to find a way to double my salary within 1 year.

As long as there is a gap between the current situation and the goal, what we need to do is to grow.

From this perspective, everyone is a growth officer.

But in real life, there are very few people who can actually fill the gap.

Most of the time, there is a sense of helplessness, like "how to put an elephant into a refrigerator."

Recently I also took on an "elephant problem".

The goal is clear and arduous: in 100 days, to increase the average reading volume of a WeChat public account with 8,000 readers to 40,000 readers per article.

This article will use this project as an example to provide a growth idea for solving the problem, dissecting it from the outside to the inside like peeling an onion.

It is divided into 4 parts:

1. Build a model and find gaps

2. Collect implementation paths and practice deliberately

3. Identify the project phase

4. Find the North Star Indicator

1. Build a model and find gaps

Question: How many steps are needed to put an elephant into a refrigerator?

There are only 3 steps: open the refrigerator door, put the elephant in, and close the refrigerator door.

What remains is to optimize and implement each link one by one.

The same logic applies to growth.

Ms. Qu Hui, the author of "Silicon Valley Growth Hacker's Practical Notes", once said that any business can be described by a simple data model.

Taking this project as an example, "elephant" refers to the number of readings, and "refrigerator" refers to "increasing the number of readings from 8,000 to 40,000."

The first step in getting the task is to build a model.

1. Build the model

First, what does reading consist of?

The number of readings of a public account = the number of readings by the public account’s existing fans + the number of readings by non-fans outside the public account after they spread the word.

Next, split the right side of the equation:

Readings by existing fans of a public account (hereinafter referred to as: readings within the account) = number of fans of the public account * daily active users of the public account.

Non-fan reading outside the official account (hereinafter referred to as: extra reading) = reading in the circle of friends + reading by friends/groups + reading by just looking at it + selected reading, etc.

Furthermore, the behavior of existing fans after reading the official account articles (reading within the account) will affect the off-account reading part.

Now, the problem of "putting an elephant into a refrigerator" has been broken down into a simple mathematical model.

If we want to increase the amount of reading, we just need to find ways to improve each link in the equation.

Of course, we can also reconstruct the whole equation, which is the so-called disruptive innovation.

When Elon Musk was looking for ways to reduce Tesla's battery costs, he directly broke down the battery costs from a physical perspective and reconstructed the battery cost structure.

The idea is exactly the same as ours, which is to dismantle and reconstruct.

2. Find the gap

Now that we know what formula to use to solve the problem, the next step is to substitute the existing data into the equation and calculate the gap between the goal and the current situation - the difficulty is equivalent to solving a junior high school word problem.

In this project, the goal is to increase the number of readings from 8,000 to 40,000 in 100 days.

So, the target reading volume on the left side of the equation is 40,000;

Let's introduce a few more constants:

For an article that has been proven to have the ability to spread, about 50%-80% of its reading volume comes from "extra reading";

For a relatively active public account, the opening rate within the account (daily activity of the public account) is approximately between 5% and 10%.

It is not difficult to calculate that if the reading rate of extra-issue articles is 80% and the opening rate of articles within the article is 10% (which means the articles are good and the daily activity is high), 30,000 new users will be needed to achieve the goal.

Of course, we only calculated the optimal case. There are several other cases that need to be calculated, and we can use a two-dimensional table to enumerate them.

At this point, the task of "increasing reading from 8,000 to 40,000 in 100 days" has been broken down into finding ways to:

1. "Extra reading rate" reaches 80%

2. "Opening rate within the account" should reach 10%

3. Attract 30,000 new target users.

After breaking down the goals, the next step is to collect the growth paths in these three dimensions and test them one by one.

2. Collect growth paths and practice deliberately

In the field of public accounts, the main factor affecting the "extra-edition reading ratio" is the content itself, which we will not elaborate on here.

Let’s talk about promoting activation and attracting new customers. These two areas have strong reusability, so we will continue to break them down.

First, reconstruct the model using mathematical formulas:

“New” fans = activating old fans in the official account + attracting new fans outside the official account

1. Activate old fans of the official account

Suppose you are now dating a high school classmate.

He/she is sleeping in your WeChat and is your "old fan".

Then, we can do at least two things to flirt with him/her. First, find an opportunity to let him/her see you now, rediscover your unique value, and know what to ask you for.

The second is to interact with him/her more and appear frequently in his/her life.

In the scenario of promoting the activation of public accounts, in addition to content means, the public account Kuang Beibei's comment area paragraph reply, Banfoxianren's slacking off activities (lottery) for each article, Xinshixiang's UGC collection, and Nian Gao Mama's "Parenting Encyclopedia" are all means to let old users rediscover the value of the product;

During the period of suspension, Xiaosheng Bibi will increase the frequency of daily contact with users through various short and fast content such as "readers know that the author is standing down and not writing seriously, but want to know what excuses he made up", while also strengthening his personality.

2. Attract new fans

After disassembling how to activate old fans, let’s disassemble how to attract new fans:

Fans outside the WeChat account = fans in the WeChat ecosystem + fans on vertical platforms outside WeChat.

Traditional WeChat fission, or account mutual promotion, are both methods of attracting new fans within the WeChat ecosystem;

However, it is becoming increasingly difficult to spread information within the WeChat ecosystem, and we still need to go to centralized platforms with traffic dividends to attract new users.

For example, for a public account for mothers and babies, you can go to a vertical platform like BabyTree and set up hooks to attract new members;

Or you can start a tongue twister challenge on Douyin, and guide people to follow the official account in the comment section (the prerequisite is to make it clear what the official account can provide to fans, which is user value that Douyin cannot provide).

Or you can collaborate with a fashion blogger to interview these career-oriented mothers, thereby penetrating into the target group and attracting fans.

There are many methods, but the core thing we need to think about is just one thing: where will the target users of our product gather?

Go fishing where there are fish, don't be restricted by fish ponds.

The above solutions are just examples. What was effective in the past does not mean it will be effective in the future. We still need to constantly update the corresponding growth paths, look at more cases and do more analysis to enrich our arsenal.

And, most importantly, keep testing and iterating.

No matter how many weapons there are in the arsenal, you still have to take them to the battlefield to practice and find the most handy one.

As for how to practice, here is another model recommended: learning trigonometry.

Some people call it "deliberate practice" or "AB testing". Anyway, I think it is the same thing. The key is to verify with a purpose. If it succeeds, it will be precipitated into a methodology. If it fails, the reasons will be analyzed, optimized and new experiments will be started.

Let’s summarize here - when you get a difficult task, I suggest you do 4 things:

1. Reconstruct the most basic mathematical model; (Ask yourself what influences and constitutes the goal)

2. Calculate the gap between stock and target;

3. Collect methods on the market to fill the corresponding gaps (growth paths);

4. Design experiments and AB test these methods.

But the story is not over yet, because many times, we have both goals and methods, but we just can’t get it done.

This is like buying assembled furniture from IKEA. You have the instructions and materials, but you just can't put it together.

From my personal experience, there are at least two possibilities:

1. The assembly order is incorrect (the project stages are not clearly divided);

2. There is a problem with the indicator settings.

3. Identify the project stage

I firmly believe in this saying: products create value, and growth amplifies value.

Suppose we have just taken over a hamburger restaurant that is on the verge of bankruptcy. If we want to improve its performance, the first thing we should do is definitely not to hand out flyers on the streets.

Instead, you should first check whether the burger tastes good and whether it meets the needs of diners.

Once it is confirmed that the hamburger has user value, subsequent publicity will be a positive accumulation.

Many times, our operations and marketing work are not going well, not because of our ability, but because the product itself is not good enough - if the burgers are not tasty, no matter how much we promote them, it will be useless.

This is also the reason why many companies now put marketing in the forefront - because in an era where everyone can spread the word, good products often spread themselves.

For example, the bubble mask that became popular on Douyin some time ago has incorporated the communication attribute (bubbles on the face) into its product design. It does not cost much (relative to its peers) and can trigger self-propagation on Douyin.

So, how should a project be divided into stages in a relatively reasonable way?

My current experience is this:

Phase 1: Creating Value

1. Make MVP (minimum product prototype)

2. Find PMF (product-market fit)

Phase 2: Amplify value

3. Run the growth process

4. Optimize each node in the growth process

The first stage is to use rapid trial and error with minimal cost to create products that are worth growing;

The second stage is the process of amplifying the value of "putting the elephant into the refrigerator".

Growth is not omnipotent. Products determine the upper limit of growth, and growth only helps to approach the upper limit.

So, next time we receive a task, we should try to step out of the task itself, go back to the beginning of the project, and re-examine the project.

Is the product ready? What is the standard for doing well? How to verify? …

What is the core selling point of the product? How to amplify the value around it?

Whose pain points does this selling point solve? Where will they be? …

If you continue asking questions, you will find clues to many of the questions that you were clueless about in the past.

4. Find the North Star Indicator

Compared with not being able to identify the project stage, what is more frightening is that even the goal is problematic.

If you can’t find the right stage, it will be ineffective at best;

If the goal is wrong, the more you do, the worse it will go.

In most cases, we are all executives, and there is nothing wrong with leading the goals and doing things.

But sometimes, the goal is a vanity indicator, which not only fails to solve the problem, but also leads astray.

For example, there is an old saying: More friends, more paths.

That’s why some people hang out in various executive classes and advanced EMBA classes, adding friends crazily.

But in reality, when they really need friends, no one is willing to help them because the other party does not see the value of cooperation in such people.

In this example, “number of connections” is a “vanity metric”;

"How many things have I accomplished independently" is more likely to be a reasonable indicator - because what determines whether others are willing to cooperate with us is not how many friends I have, but how many things I have accomplished.

This indicator, which points to the core issue and can bring positive growth, is called the "North Star Indicator."

So how do you find the North Star Indicator for your project?

In "North Star Indicator: Facebook's Secret to Success", Qu Hui provides 6 criteria for judgment:

1. What is the core value of your product? This metric lets you know if your users are experiencing this value?

2. Can this indicator reflect the user’s level of activity?

3. If this indicator improves, does it mean that your entire company is developing in a positive direction?

4. Is this metric easy to understand and communicate to your entire team?

5. Is this indicator a leading indicator or a lagging indicator?

6. Is this indicator an actionable indicator?

Taking "increasing the quality of public account content" as an example, frankly speaking, the number of readings is not a good North Star indicator.

Because for readers, what truly reflects user value is not whether they click on the article or not, but how long they read it after clicking on it, and whether they like, collect, comment, or forward it after reading it (each behavior represents different user value).

On the contrary, if you only pursue the number of readers, it will be easy to become the UC shock department.

Therefore, instead of looking at the number of readings directly, if the value of the content is to "help users express themselves" (dissemination), I would recommend looking at the percentage of article readings.

If the percentage of extra-edition readings is high but the number of readers is low, it means the content is good and you need to find more accurate readers to read it.

If the reading volume is okay but the reading percentage is very poor, then this means that the content itself is not good. Don't rush to attract new users, polish the content first.

To get back to the point, the core is this: vanity indicators are the result, and North Star indicators are the cause. We cannot put the cart before the horse.

V. Conclusion

Among the most viewed videos in TED history, there is a speech on the "Golden Circle Rule".

It divides a task into three layers from inside to outside: Why——>How——>What.

When we receive a task, we actually only come into contact with the outermost layer of What (what to do).

At this time, we need to break down What by building a model and finding gaps.

Then, based on the decomposed What, collect growth paths and practice deliberately. This is the How.

But if you really want to get things done, you must ask yourself, Why?

Because many times, what is delivered to us has already been distorted.

Therefore, finding clear project stages and the North Star indicators for each stage can help us get closer to Why.

If you think the above content is valuable, please stay tuned.

In the next three months, I will output a lot of similar experiences in practice.

For me, what is more important than accomplishing a specific what is to constantly practice and iterate my methods and cognition in the process of doing it - this is my why and the growth I want. mutual encouragement.

Author: Hu Chenyu

Source: I don’t like to talk about reason (norule_hu)