Steve Jobs’ prediction—e-commerce

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As early as 1996, shortly after the birth of eBay and before the emergence of PayPal, Apple co-founder and CEO Steve Jobs had foreseen that the real kings of the Internet would be e-commerce companies.

In February 1996, Wired magazine published an interview with Jobs titled "Steve Jobs: The Next Great Invention." In the interview, Jobs talked about where the then-nascent "network" would develop.

According to Wired magazine: "Jobs said the core of the Internet is commerce, and the core of commerce is American companies providing customized products to individual consumers."

This sounds very similar to Amazon's product recommendation engine and how Google and Facebook help advertisers target specific groups of people through ad targeting technology.

Jobs' computer company, NeXT, had abandoned its underperforming hardware business to focus on providing developers with tools to write software for the World Wide Web, and Jobs did not return to Apple until late 1996, when Apple acquired NeXT.

Here are the relevant parts of the interview:

Wired: What other opportunities are there here?

Jobs: Who do you think will benefit from the Internet? Who will win the most?

Wired: This is the kind of person who...

Jobs: Someone who has something to sell.

Wired: Anyone with something to share? (ToShare)

Jobs: No, there’s stuff to sell.

Wired: You mean distribution?

Jobs: It's not just distribution, it's commerce. People are not going to go to multiple stores anymore, they're going to shop online.

Wired: So the web becomes a democratizing tool?

Jobs: If you look at what I've done in my life, there's an element of democratization in it. The Internet is an incredible democratizing tool. Small companies can look just as big as big companies, and through the Internet, small companies can be just as visible as big companies.

Large companies have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in building distribution channels. The Internet will eliminate this advantage.

Wired: What changes will occur in economic development after this democratization process enters another cycle?

Jobs: The Internet is not going to change the world, certainly not in the next 10 years. It is going to enhance the world. Once you are in that space, you will see democratization happening.

The Internet is not going to catch everyone. If the Internet took over 10% of the goods and services in this country, that would be phenomenal. I think it will be much higher. Eventually, the Internet will become a significant part of the economy.

Jobs's speech can be further interpreted. It is important to note that Jobs linked online distribution with commodity sales, which is very forward-looking. Currently, social networks like Pinterest and Twitter are actively developing shopping functions to help users shop directly on the distribution platform.

Jobs didn't foresee the birth of social networks. So far, Apple's only attempt at social networking, Ping, has also failed. But he believed that selling goods would be the only way for Internet companies to make money.

In addition, Jobs believed that the Internet would "augment the world", which was very consistent with Apple's design philosophy after Jobs returned to Apple. Under Jobs' leadership, Apple's product and marketing concepts were based on the idea that computers would improve users' lifestyles.

Regardless, Jobs was right. While brick-and-mortar stores still dominate retail, we are increasingly shopping online. Services like Apple Pay will ensure that trend continues.