Dr. Mo's seven comments on 2015: This year's technology industry is a bit dull

2015 is coming to an end in 7 days. What were the successes and failures in the technology circle this year? In this regard, Walt Mossberg, a senior technology media commentator, has listed 7 important events for us. Come and see the technology circle in 2015 from the perspective of an "expert"!

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1. Is the smartphone market going to be saturated?

Smartphones have become part of our lives, but in 2015, they seem to be less and less able to surprise us. Whether it is Apple, Samsung or Google, the 3D Touch in the high-end market feels bland, and there is almost no new idea in the mid- and low-end markets. Where are the surprises?

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At the same time, according to market research firm IDC, the growth rate of global smartphone shipments will drop to single digits in 2015 - 9.8%, while before that, its growth rate has been maintained at more than 10%, with total shipments reaching 1.43 billion units. At the same time, IDC predicts that the growth rate will continue to decline in the next few years.

However, does this really mean that the world is saturated? Of course not, there are consumers in other parts of the world who need a mobile phone! It’s just that Cupertino (Apple), Mountain View (Google), Seoul and Shenzhen need to worry more.

2. The laptop market is still struggling

After much anticipation, Microsoft finally released the Surface Book this year, hoping it could boost global PC sales. However, it turned out to be of no use at all.

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According to market research firm Gartner, global PC shipments fell 7.7% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2015, with Windows machines being the main reason (Macs, which were already weak, actually saw an improvement). Some industry insiders believe that the situation may improve in the fourth quarter due to the Christmas season, but Dr. Mok does not think so.

As IDC pointed out, the decline of the entire tablet market is difficult to reverse, as the appeal of detachable tablets is not enough to bring about significant growth. In 2015, the total global tablet shipments may decline by 8.1% compared with last year. It is useless to remove the USB port from the MacBook, as consumers still don't get why they want to buy it.

3. That Microsoft is finally coming back!

Since the mobile phone revolution in 2007, 2015 has finally allowed Microsoft to stand up for a while. In this year, Nadella led Microsoft to launch the Win 10 ecosystem, reshape the Surface Pro product line, and promote software and hardware together. Hard work pays off, and Microsoft ushered in a year of growth in 2015 - although there are still many useless things, such as the delayed WP Win 10.

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Dr. Mo believes that the most wise decision Microsoft made in 2015 was the online support in the field of software improvement and mobile cloud platform. This new policy helped Microsoft gain an explosion in the application market - although the consumer market was not very receptive, it at least won back the developer market and won back the reputation of its own brand.

Although there is still a lot of room for development, it is clear that Nadella and his Microsoft now have a clear plan for the future.

4. Apple's new products disappointed the world

There is no doubt that Apple Watch is Apple's headline product in 2015. It is Apple's first foray into new hardware since Steve Jobs' death in 2011, but its achievements are controversial.

"The supporting system ecosystem is still very poor, and there are very few applications," Dr. Mo said. So far, the main purpose of Apple Watch is still text input and health tracking. Throughout 2015, Apple did not find a good position for Apple Watch.

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"Of course, this is not to say that Apple Watch is not selling well as a smartwatch, although they (Apple) have not announced sales figures so far. It's just that as an Apple product, it failed to make the world feel refreshed."

Overall, the best new product of Apple this year is - no. Yes, they are still relying on classic models to support themselves.

5. The IoT industry is still a mess

In fact, since about 2014, the Internet of Things has become an industry that major technology companies have been vying to get involved in, from various smart hardware that claims to be able to control home facilities, to format applications that can achieve remote control, from thermometers that automatically adjust room temperature to smart door locks... Yes, the Internet of Things has been touted, but it has been a mess with no progress, at least in 2015.

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Are Apple, Google and other big companies not working hard? Of course not. The continuous innovation of Nest and HomeKit shows that they still make contributions. However, no one has managed to convince consumers to quickly accept and use them.

6. AI is getting smarter, especially on mobile phones

Although Tesla CEO Elon Musk is still popular again, AI technology has indeed developed rapidly in 2015. Most platforms have their own AI technology, whether it is voice control or somatosensory, and most importantly, their accuracy and scope of application have been greatly improved in 2015.

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Four years later, Apple's Siri is finally here, and it can be used in the living room on Apple TV. Google Now's voice control is even more remarkable, and even Amazon has squeezed in with Amazon Echo, not to mention Microsoft's Cortana, which already has a slight advantage.

There is no doubt that the AI ​​market will become more cruel in the next 10 years. It is precisely because of the fear that some people will be forced into desperation that Musk established his own OpenAI alliance.

7.4 The foundation of the future of big technology has been built

As of now, there are still 4 important technologies that, although they did not become mainstream technologies in 2015, play an important role in the future of mankind.

***, virtual reality and augmented reality technology. Oculus, Samsung and other companies have successively handed in their answers. Although there are many complaints, they have taken shape, and even the New York Times has joined in.

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Second, mobile wireless payment technology. In addition to Apple Pay, there is Android Pay. In Asia, Samsung Pay and Alipay should not be underestimated. Although most offline merchants are not enthusiastic about them, consumers and online merchants have shown great favor for them. Yes, 2015 is just a growth year for mobile payment, and it will usher in a revolution in the future.

Third, driverless cars. There is no doubt that Google is the leader in this field. Recently, there are rumors that Google has reached an agreement with Ford Motor to establish a joint venture for joint research and development, which means that driverless cars will really move from the laboratory to ordinary people's homes - although not in 2015. Apple, you really should work hard.

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Fourth, civil drones. In fact, people pay far less attention to it than the former, but the industry should not be held responsible but the relevant legislative departments. In 2015, the US government required the registration of civil drones. A series of cumbersome procedures doomed the US drone market to lag behind countries led by China. Amazon, don't cry!

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All in all, 2015 was a bit dull for the technology circle... Where are the surprises?