The era of "traffic-centric" operations is over

1.

In fact, 2016 was a very interesting year for the entire Internet industry. A lot of things happened in this year, and many people kept making many seemingly subversive remarks.

For example, Wang Xing and Li Feng have publicly expressed this year that the first half of the Internet has ended and the second half is about to begin .

For example, Li Yanhong publicly stated at the World Internet Conference not long ago: The era of mobile Internet is over .

For example, Luo Zhenyu once wrote an article saying that for the entire Internet, the so-called number of users is no longer our core competitive dimension. On the contrary, the user's "time" will become the biggest battlefield .

2.

So why did so many people come up with such seemingly shocking opinions this year? I believe there must be many issues behind this that are worth our consideration.

Here I would like to put forward an axiom, that is: any new industry or field will always go through a development process from barbarism to civilization. The development of any product must often go from "extensive" to "fine".

For example, more than ten years ago in 1998 and 1999, I still remember that all the websites of that era were very crude, without any aesthetic appeal at all. The portal websites at that time were full of all kinds of pop-ups and small advertisements flying around. In today's words, they were simply blinding. But now, we have a large number of design specifications for how to design a website or even a page or a module. This is driven by the development of the industry, the so-called transformation from "barbarism" to "civilization".

For example, a website like Taobao, in the early days, the pages and logic it used to serve all users were the same. In other words, the Taobao that everyone saw everywhere was the same Taobao. But later, with the growth of Taobao's user base and the intensification of market competition, Taobao's operations began to change from "extensive" to "sophisticated". Specifically, later on, you will find that the Taobao homepage you log in to from Beijing and Shanghai may see completely different interfaces, including completely different recommendations made by Taobao’s algorithm under each category. So, this is what is called from "extensive" to "fine".

In my opinion, by 2016, the Internet has taken root in the country for 20 years. It has been more than ten years since the function of "operation" first appeared. I have a vague feeling that now, with the changes in many underlying logics, the development of such a function as "operation" is approaching a critical turning point, a so-called turning point from "barbarism" to "civilization".

To quote Chairman Mao’s words, “ the situation is changing .”

3.

So here I want to put forward my core point, which consists of two sentences.

The first sentence is: The era of traffic-centered operations is over.

How do you understand this sentence? I think that in the past ten years of the Internet industry, the job and function of "operation" has been "traffic-oriented" in most companies, and we will examine many things with traffic as the center. From this perspective, "operation" often plays the role of a promoter.

What is Push Hands? It means that you push traffic or users to various places at will. For example, I know a friend who used to do a very profitable business called traffic distribution, which is to buy traffic from channels such as hao123 at a lower price, and then sell it at a higher price. To put it bluntly, it is reselling, which is a typical "pusher".

In addition, a large number of operations oriented towards "occupying channels", "closing transactions" and "conversions", such as advertising , APP promotion , etc., all belong to this category.

You will find that in this "traffic"-centered perspective, users lack a sense of presence and are more often seen as lambs to be slaughtered. For example, for traffic portals such as hao123, Baidu, etc., they will definitely not care about the "users". They care more about which keywords have more traffic and how the overall traffic market changes.

Under this logic, operations tend to pay more attention to traffic flow, conversion rate , and channel and entrance occupation. However, in my opinion, this era is over now, and I will explain why in detail later.

4.

Okay, now I can lead to my second sentence: I believe that the era of "user-centric" operations is coming in full swing.

What is user-centric operation? Simply put, you will find that in today's Internet world, users' presence and voice are becoming increasingly stronger. Ten years ago, users had no say in the Internet world. As long as you occupied key channels and entrances, you could have beautiful data. As long as you did a better job in conversion rate and distribution, you could have beautiful data and high valuations and make money.

However, after entering 2016, I began to have an increasingly obvious feeling: even if you occupy a large number of key channels, even if you have good exposure at the traffic entrance, but without the endorsement of users, if there are not a large number of people telling you that this product is good, you will find that the efficiency of traffic distribution, including the cost of acquiring traffic at the entrance, will become higher and higher, more and more terrible, and the corresponding user retention will also become lower and lower - in short, the extensive "channel" and "traffic"-dominated approach is no longer so effective.

For example, the average cost of acquiring users through promotion on the app store is now at least 10 yuan. Just imagine that two or three years ago this cost was only around 3 yuan. This is a huge change.

5.

Why does this phenomenon occur?

One thing we must mention here is the change in the underlying logic of information distribution and dissemination .

I have a relatively macro definition of operations - I believe that the ultimate goal of operations is to better connect your products and your users. This connection may include two levels. The first is to make the user willing to use your product. The second is that you can keep him while he is using your product, making your relationship with him better. If this is our goal, how do we connect users? We must connect with users through a large number of information distribution and dissemination channels.

How did we do this before the Internet? You will find that before the Internet, our entire information dissemination and distribution model was completely dependent on our key core nodes. For example, before the Internet appeared, if we wanted to reach and influence our users, the easiest way was to advertise on CCTV, in local authoritative media, in newspapers or magazines, etc.

Later, when things like text messages became available, we could store user information and create a CRM system, reaching and influencing them through CRM and text messages. This was the typical way we influenced users before the Internet.

So after the Internet came into being, in the first ten or fifteen years of its existence, what changes have taken place in this regard? You will find that the essence of the matter has not changed much. The only difference is that the way we influence and reach people has changed from traditional ways to online ways.

For example, the most effective way to reach users in the past was to advertise on CCTV. However, in the first decade of the Internet, this became nothing more than having to rank high enough on the first page of Baidu search, and advertising in the most prominent position on the portal website, etc. As long as I could do this, I could get a lot of traffic.

This is what happened in the online world in the first decade after the Internet came into being. Even though places like BBS forums did appear for a time, their logic of information distribution and dissemination was still relatively centralized, centered around moderators, opinion leaders, and others. If you want to do forum promotion, maybe there is a moderator or opinion leader in the forum to endorse you. This is more important than anything else.

This includes between different forums. For example, if someone and someone else both set up a forum, it is difficult for user information to flow between the two forums. So overall, it is difficult for users to influence each other. They are basically in an isolated state. Therefore, "users" have no say.

6.

So now, has the logic of information dissemination and distribution changed? In fact, it is a big change. We will find that with the rise of social media, the logic of information distribution and dissemination has become increasingly "distributed" and "decentralized."

For example, even just five years ago, when something like Wang Baoqiang’s divorce happened, where did we go to get the relevant information first? I believe that most people would choose to search on Baidu, Sohu Entertainment, or Sina Entertainment. This is what we did five or six years ago.

But today, after Wang Baoqiang’s divorce, where do we get the information? We get information from places like WeChat Moments and Zhihu - more and more traffic entrances are beginning to become places like WeChat Moments, and people are more willing to believe the information obtained from these places. On the contrary, the credibility of portal websites has been getting lower and lower.

In other words, in this era, if you cannot make your own information occupy a large amount of exposure in places like WeChat Moments and Zhihu, and obtain a large amount of traffic and attention in these places, then your efficiency in influencing users and interacting with users will definitely be low. For example, you can ask Mimi Meng to place a big advertisement today, but if the content of this big advertisement itself is poor and few people forward it, then this placement is still likely to fail. This is completely different from ten years ago - ten years ago, we were very impressive as long as we could appear on the homepage of Baidu search results.

This is a huge change in the logic of information distribution and dissemination.

7.

Because the purpose of operations is to help establish connections between products and users, when the logic of such information distribution and dissemination changes, the work orientation of operations will also face tremendous changes.

Specifically, because of this trend change, I think that a lot of traffic-oriented operation work and operation positions will become increasingly weaker and more difficult to do in the entire industry in the next one to three years.

For example, it includes the traffic distribution we talked about, simple channel promotion , simple content transfer and maintenance, and channel-occupying jobs, including a large number of app store promotions, point walls , advertising alliances , etc. If your job is like the above, I think you will find it increasingly difficult and increasingly disadvantaged in the next one to three years. You will find that your cost of acquiring users will become higher and higher, and the results will become worse and worse, including the degree to which you may be valued in the industry, which will actually become lower and lower.

Correspondingly, as I mentioned, user-oriented operations, I think will become more and more popular in the entire industry. What is user-oriented orientation? The most basic thing is that you must be able to establish a stronger emotional connection and a stronger relationship with your users, and complete more frequent interactions with them.

For example, in the past, many operational positions, such as managing QQ groups, were often regarded as miscellaneous jobs in the industry. But now, I think that once you are very good at interacting with users, can make your presence very strong in a group, make everyone love you and like you very much, and can mobilize everyone's enthusiasm to make the whole group active and happy, I think the status of such operators in the industry will become higher and higher and more popular.

8.

From this perspective, I think the things that "operations" need to focus on have also changed. It may no longer be a one-dimensional channel delivery and conversion, but will become three things like this:

• First, manage user expectations;
• The second is to manage the composition of users;
• The third is to manage user experience.

If I were to talk about these three things in detail, it would actually be very long, so I probably won’t be able to elaborate on them. Simply put, at different stages of a product development, the things to consider around the above three directions should be completely different.

For example, in the early stages of a product, when it has just been launched, what should you do? You should lower users' expectations of your product. Why? Because when a product is just launched, its user experience, core functions, core values, etc. may be imperfect and may have problems. Including products like Didi, if you look at the early reviews on the app store, you will find that their early reviews are basically like this - what a crappy app, I called a car and it didn't come for four or five hours.

I think this is true for any product, so especially in the early stages you must lower user expectations and not go around telling the world that you have made a really cool product.

Then you manage user composition, which at a particularly early stage is consistent with the management of user expectations mentioned earlier. You have to know, especially in the early stages, what kind of users a product needs? It requires a group of users with higher tolerance, rather than mass users. Simply put, users with high tolerance will accompany you and are willing to tolerate your imperfections and shortcomings, while general users will basically curse you to death as soon as they find something wrong with your product.

Then the third is to manage user experience.

9.

Let’s talk about how we manage user composition, user expectations and user experience.

Let’s talk about the first and second things first. You will find that we often communicate with users in a very “self-deprecating” way . For example, if we have conducted some activities that have hurt user experience, we will apologize honestly and say publicly: We feel that we have done a terrible job on this activity.

You may have never seen an institution that sells courses promote its courses in this way - we will tell you that all courses produced by Sanjieke do not guarantee learning, employment, or salary increase, and are not suitable for everyone to participate. Please be cautious when registering.

In fact, things and expressions like this are all us controlling user expectations and user composition. Think about it, you still come here after we have said all this, which means you must recognize us very much, or you have suffered a lot in learning product operations . Because you are in such deep pain, even if we are not doing well at this stage, you will be able to endure it and will not curse us all over the world. This is the logic.

In addition , we have our own set of logic in the user experience management of all courses. We will carefully look at and think about every aspect of the user experience. What can we do at the operational level to provide users with an experience that exceeds their expectations? After following this thinking and method for a year, we can now say that after a course, about 60 to 70 percent of users will spontaneously post to their Moments, and the content they post is like the following, which will often move you after reading it.

11.

So if the Internet operations in the past decade required you to play the role of a promoter, then operations now require you to play the role of a toucher - that is, you need to move users while being moved by them. Only by doing this can the foundation of your operations be solid in this era.

In this era, the cornerstone and foundation of a product operation may increasingly become: Is there anyone willing to endorse you on a large number of social media platforms, such as in the circle of friends? This thing is the foundation. With this foundation, promotion and conversion will be most efficient. But without this foundation, many things will be in vain.

12.

Finally, let me share with you some of my judgments on operations.

The first judgment is this: in the past five to ten years, when we evaluate whether an operator is good enough, how do we judge more? We will pay more attention to whether this person has been responsible for a product from scratch and has grown it to tens of millions of users. Operations experts in the industry will also use such resumes to prove to everyone that I am awesome and authoritative.

However, this will be difficult in the next three to five years. In this era, almost every sub-industry and every professional field has already had a very good product occupying a position. I think this kind of opportunity of “growing from 0 to tens of millions of users” may be difficult to exist.

This is not a question of ability, but a question of the times. So, my first judgment is that in the next three to five years, when evaluating whether an operation capability is strong enough, its capability is not about how many users it attracts, but it is getting closer and closer to saying, I may only have 200,000 users, but I can make 200,000 users like me super much and they are crazy about me.

I think this will be the key criterion for evaluating whether an operation is excellent or awesome in the next three to five years, and it will also be a transformation. For example, when we run the Three Classes program, it is naturally impossible for us to have 10 million users, but we have hundreds of thousands of users, and we make hundreds of thousands of users like us. They made friends with us and played a lot of things with us. This is a different direction, this is the first judgment.

What is the second judgment? I believe that operators who have the ability to output high-quality content and know how to create good interactions among users will become more and more valuable. What is actually going on here is the part about the changing logic of information distribution and dissemination that we discussed above. Simply put, with the ability to output high-quality content, you can make many people willing to spontaneously spread content related to your products and brands in their circle of friends. I think this may be able to offset the overwhelming force in the next 3-5 years.

But if you don’t have this ability, you can only advertise and sell conversions, which would be terrible.

This includes how to create good interactions with users, so that users like you and discuss things about you in places like WeChat Moments, Zhihu, and Weibo, and talk about your luxury. This will become more and more critical in the future, so such operations will become more and more valuable.

What is the third judgment? I believe that a more complete and rigorous knowledge system and logic regarding operations will gradually emerge. After that, this business will become even more popular.

How did this judgment come about? This was prompted by the research and development of a course I was doing in three classes the past two days. During this process, I struggled with myself several times, wondering whether it was necessary to redefine the concept of operations?

Because in traditional terms, the definition of Internet operations is basically divided into three modules, namely content operation , user operation , and event operation. But you find that it is precisely this definition that I think actually hinders the development of the operation function or this matter.

Why? I think this definition itself is very vague and not specific. It is difficult for people with only one to three years of working experience to understand it well. For example, "user operation" is actually a very abstract concept that is difficult for newcomers to understand. I have met a kid like this. He said, "I don't want to do user operations because I think there is no future in user operations." I asked him what he thought was user operation? He said I used to work in user operations for an APP, what did I do every day? It is just to process user messages in the background. The boss says this is user operation, so I think this is not very technical.

Therefore, our current definition of operations is difficult for most newcomers to understand, and it is also difficult for people outside the industry, including me and a large number of people, for example, people in finance or traditional industries. If you talk to them about content operations, event operations, user operations, etc., I estimate that you may not be able to explain them clearly even after half an hour.

Therefore, I have a vague feeling that as operations are increasingly valued and as the industry and the times develop, there should be a more rigorous and complete knowledge system and framework to define operations. It will also become more popular, more valued, and more and more popular after that, so this is my third judgment.

In a sense, I think that if operations were in a barbaric and extensive era in the past decade, I think it has entered the so-called civilized era from now on, especially from 2015 and 2016. It is more refined, more standardized, more user-oriented, and less rough.

Operations have gone through the end of the barbaric era and will soon approach the civilized era. I think its time will come soon, let us embrace it together. Thank you everyone!