Prices of various types of Moutai liquor plummeted across the board

Dongguan Fengchao.com reported on October 31 that according to data from the "Today's Wine Price" public account, prices of many types of Moutai liquor have plummeted across the board. The original box price of 53-degree Fei Tian (2021) has dropped from 3,750 yuan on October 26 to the latest 3,550 yuan, and the 2021 vintage loose Fei Tian has dropped to 2,700 yuan. The original box prices and loose flight prices of other years have also fallen across the board in the past two trading days.

It is worth mentioning that the decline in premium Moutai and zodiac wines was particularly large. The main reason for the previous sell-off may have been the selling by speculators and the cashing out of some real estate developers, while the recent one may be related to a rumor.

According to industry insiders, rumors that Moutai will be allowed to sell in whole boxes have been widely circulated recently. At the beginning of this year, Moutai Company required Moutai distributors to sell 80% of the wine in unpacked boxes, and the boxes had to be recycled. Later, the unpacking rate was increased to 100%. This directly led to a lack of whole boxes of Moutai for sale in the market, and the price of whole boxes of Moutai continued to soar. Now, the plot has taken a turn.

So, what exactly caused the sharp drop in Moutai’s price? A recent rumor may be the main reason for the sell-off. The rumor is that Moutai will be allowed to be sold in whole boxes. Earlier this year, Kweichow Moutai introduced new regulations that require Moutai distributors to sell 80% of their wine in boxes, and the boxes must be recycled. On January 21, Kweichow Moutai upgraded its unpacking rate to 100% and said it would conduct random inspections on distributors from time to time and recycle cartons. This directly led to the fact that there were no whole boxes of Moutai available for sale on the market. Therefore, the price of a whole box of Moutai continued to soar, and at one point far exceeded that of individual bottles. As the above rumors spread, the situation immediately reversed and the price of whole boxes plummeted rapidly.

In fact, the price of Moutai on the market is still facing negative pressure. At present, there are four main factors affecting price trends:

First, the price of Moutai liquor increased too much in the early stage. Data from institutions show that from January 1, when Moutai issued the unboxing order, to October 21, the price of a loose bottle of 500ml 53-degree Feitian Moutai in 2021 increased by 440 yuan, an increase of 15.6%. In 2021, the price of an original box of 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai increased by 1,040 yuan, an increase of 27.37%. In 2021, the price of an original box of 53-degree 500ml premium Moutai increased by 220 yuan, a 5% increase. The price of many individual flights is around 3,000 yuan, while the price of a full box is close to 4,000 yuan. Any asset that is priced too high will not be able to withstand the slightest disturbance.

Second, the pressure to cash out remains high. Since the beginning of this year, the business climate in many industries such as real estate, finance, education, and games has declined rapidly. Many big bosses have had to sell their massive inventory to the Moutai circle and cash out for various purposes, which has led to a serious outflow of speculation funds from the entire "Moutai fan circle."

Third, the overall consumption power has declined. In the second half of this year, most industries were not doing very well, with both business and personal consumption declining. Judging from the Mid-Autumn Festival market, the sales of peers have dropped by nearly 50%, so except for out-of-print and scarce varieties, all of Moutai's circulating goods have been sold off. But this creates another problem: old goods cannot be sold, and no one wants to stock large quantities of new goods. This further exacerbated market panic.

Fourth is consumption tax. "Solidly Promoting Common Prosperity", published in the 20th issue of "Qiushi" magazine on October 16, pointed out that it is necessary to reasonably adjust excessive income, improve the personal income tax system, and standardize the management of capital income. We must increase tax regulation efforts in the consumption sector and study the expansion of the scope of consumption tax collection. Another property tax expectation mentioned in the article has been fully released, but there is no news about consumption tax yet, which also means that the negative impact has not yet been realized.