Known as the "first stock in fresh food e-commerce", MissFresh has quickly entered the fresh food market and become very popular since its establishment in November 2014 due to its pioneering "forward warehouse" model and "fastest delivery in 30 minutes" service. In the following seven years, MissFresh has been favored by many well-known investors, and has received 11 rounds of financing from Qingdao Municipal Government Guidance Fund, Tencent, CICC Capital, Goldman Sachs, etc., with a total scale of 14.047 billion yuan, and was listed on the Nasdaq on June 25, 2021. Transaction screenshots on September 3, 2021 In recent years, as leading players have entered the fresh food e-commerce market, various new fresh food e-commerce models have emerged one after another and competition has been fierce. Many players, such as the traditional Shihuituan, have chosen to lay off a large number of employees. However, MissFresh still maintains its leading position in the industry and even achieves a slight growth. What is the secret? What kind of second growth curve will follow? Let us analyze from the perspective of MissFresh one by one from the aspects of industry, competitors, users, business value and operation path. 1. Industry AnalysisMissFresh was established in November 2014, focusing on the fresh food e-commerce segment. In the following years, China's fresh food e-commerce has grown explosively, and the scale of the industry has continued to expand, from a market size of 49.7 billion yuan in 2015 to a market size of 458.5 billion yuan in 2020, with a growth rate of 826%. During this period, projects focusing on the fresh food e-commerce industry have also gained favor from the capital market and developed rapidly. Original data source: iResearch, Qichacha But "the bigger the water, the bigger the fish" has always been an iron rule of business. As Charlie Munger explains:
Image by Wang Dayin, original data from iResearch According to data compiled by iResearch Consulting, as of 2020, the overall industry scale of fresh food e-commerce was only 100 billion yuan, and the fresh food retail market size was 5 trillion yuan, while the market size of community retail in the same period was 11.9 trillion yuan. So in March 2021, MissFresh launched the " (A+B) x N Strategy". That is, the new strategy of (forward warehouse instant retail + smart vegetable market) x retail cloud" will strive to become "China's largest community retail digital platform" through multi-format layout. Let’s review our journey from “becoming China’s No. 1 fresh food e-commerce company” in 2014 to “becoming China’s No. 1 fresh food retailer” and now to “becoming China’s largest community retail digital platform”. We can see that MissFresh is constantly expanding its strategic layout on the premise of accurate strategic positioning. This is based on keen insights into the boundary analysis of the industry and the evolution trends of the industry. The rapid development of the industry in recent years is inseparable from the overall favorable trend of the external business environment. 1. Policy levelAgricultural products are the foundation of people's livelihood, and their circulation efficiency determines the quality and level of people's livelihood. Since the formation of the fresh agricultural product market, the state has repeatedly promulgated new policies and regulations to accelerate the construction and improvement of the fresh agricultural product supply chain system and encourage the promotion of agricultural development through "Internet +".
2. Economic levelAccording to the 7th National Population Census in 2020, the total population size of the mainland reached 1.41 billion, and the urbanization rate of the permanent population reached 63.9%. Data from the 4th National Economic Census showed that my country's GDP in the first quarter was 24,931.0 billion yuan, an increase of 18.3% year-on-year at comparable prices. The per capita national income has increased significantly, and residents' consumption needs have begun to upgrade from basic consumption of food, clothing, housing and transportation. As people's consumption concepts and consumption levels improve year by year, people's demand for fresh products continues to grow. 3. Social levelBy the end of 2020, the number of Internet users in China reached 990 million, and the Internet penetration rate reached 70.4%. The huge number of Internet users constitutes China's booming online consumer market. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, online retail sales in my country accounted for 30% in 2020, and offline retail sales continued to decline from 89.7% in 2014 to 70% in 2020. The offline retail industry as a whole showed a trend of gradually shifting to online. Moreover, the emergence of the new coronavirus pandemic in 2020 has further accelerated the online penetration of fresh food. According to iResearch survey data, the purchase frequency of fresh food e-commerce users is significantly higher than before the epidemic after the epidemic has eased. This shows that the epidemic has cultivated users' habit of using fresh food e-commerce platforms for consumption. At the same time, the shift of consumers' cross-city consumption to intra-city consumption has brought new development opportunities to the retail industry. This shows that people are paying more and more attention to time efficiency when making shopping choices to meet their daily needs. Compared with the traditional fresh food e-commerce model, the new e-commerce model with faster delivery is undoubtedly more suitable for the new preferences of consumers. 4. Technical aspectsIn recent years, giants such as Alibaba and JD.com have entered the market and continuously increased investment in infrastructure construction such as supply chain and logistics under the O2O model, bringing about a series of innovative models and revitalizing the fresh food e-commerce market. From the perspective of Internet technology:
Cold chain logistics and distribution use "high-standard foam boxes + low-temperature ice bags" for multiple insulation, allowing fresh food e-commerce to meet the requirements for the freshness of fresh foods such as fruits and vegetables, which further promotes the development of the community retail industry. 5. SummaryAccording to iResearch, the scale of community retail is expected to grow to 15.7 trillion yuan by 2025. At the same time, there is huge room for growth in the online community retail market. It is estimated that by 2025, the online penetration rate will increase from the current 20.9% to 45.5%. In other words, the market size of community retail digitalization will reach 7.2 trillion yuan in 2025, which is undoubtedly an extremely imaginative market. 2. Typical business models of fresh food e-commerceFrom the perspective of industry logic, China’s community retail industry is a super track with a scale of over one trillion yuan. However, the CR100 (market share of the top 100 largest companies in the market) of this market is less than 10%, and the degree of fragmentation is extremely high. At the same time, there is the coexistence of multiple business formats, multiple species and multiple cities. Based on the operating model, fresh food e-commerce is divided into two categories: traditional and new. The new type of e-commerce is further divided into home delivery, warehouse-store integration, counter pickup, and community group buying. 3. Competitive Product AnalysisXu Zheng, the founder of MissFresh, once used a formula to summarize MissFresh’s business model: (A+B)×N. Among them, A is the forward warehouse instant retail pioneered by MissFresh, B is the smart vegetable market, and N is the retail cloud. Next, let’s look at the similarities and differences in the business models of direct competitors in the three directions of A, B, and N. 1. A- Forward warehouse instant retail: Miss Fresh vs Dingdong MaicaiMissFresh pioneered the home delivery model of forward warehouse instant retail, and relied on this model to obtain multiple rounds of financing and a good market share. Dingdong Maicai, which continued to develop under this model, is its direct competitor. We will take the growth paths and development of these two companies in this operating model as the starting point to see the differences between the two. 2. Upstream, midstream and downstream of the supply chainSince both aim to improve user experience, they both adopt the forward warehouse instant retail model, build their own community forward warehouses, and are equipped with cold chain systems to control quality from the source of fresh food. Their supply chain structure is generally similar. However, given the cost pressure of building a forward warehouse itself, coupled with the delivery manpower, the overall operating cost is high, which requires the forward warehouse model to further improve its utilization rate and benefit ratio. 3. Development History & Financing and Listing StatusDingdong Maicai and MissFresh were founded at similar times. However, MissFresh was launched earlier and has priority in acquiring more users. From 2014 to 2018, it quickly captured 50% of the market share. Dingdong Maicai spent more time exploring the model in the early days, and was only able to focus and develop rapidly in 2018, surpassing its competitors in revenue in 2020. Analyzing from the market feedback after listing, MissFresh was the first to go public and suffered a drop in the IPO price. Although Dingdong Maicai was listed three days later, its overall market response was higher than that of MissFresh. As of the close of August 31, Dingdong Maicai was priced at US$21.39 per share, with a total market value of US$5.049 billion. Daily Youxian’s stock price is $4.46 per share, with a total market value of $1.05 billion. 1) User growth & revenue comparison Comparing the transaction scale, in just two years, Dingdong Maicai has grown from a small company with a GMV of only 700 million yuan to an industry leader with a GMV nearly twice that of MissFresh. Overall, the revenues of both companies are further increasing, but the growth rate is gradually slowing down, and the net loss is further expanding. There are two reasons behind this:
Faced with challenges, both companies have adopted the strategy of increasing upstream purchasing categories and continuously enriching SKUs. For example, Dingdong has added cooked food and quick dishes. Daily Youxian has added categories such as quick-cooking ingredients and flowers, gradually shifting towards the general merchandise category. At the same time, Daily Youxian's differentiation strategy and competitive advantages have gradually become more prominent: ① Daily Youxian’s average order value has always been at the forefront of the industry, reaching RMB 96.1 in the second quarter. According to the information in the prospectus, the average customer spending of MissFresh in 2020 was 94.6 yuan, and that of Dingdong Maicai was 57 yuan. Once the average order value is high, the overall fulfillment cost rate can be lowered. Compared with Dingdong Maicai, MissFresh has reduced its fulfillment fee costs by 10%. ② Due to the high cost disadvantages of the forward warehouse model (according to the prospectus, the loss rate is as high as 27%. When the average customer order value was 94.6 yuan in 2020, it was equivalent to an average loss of 26 yuan per order). Since 2020, MissFresh has become increasingly conservative, choosing to reduce the number of forward warehouses and improve the utilization efficiency of single warehouses. Comparing the data before and after the contraction, the gross profit margins in 2018-2020 were 9%, 9% and 19% respectively, with a significant increase, while the loss rates were 63%, 48% and 27% respectively, showing a clear narrowing trend. ③ Start focusing on expanding B-side business. On March 26 this year, MissFresh announced that it would no longer be limited to being its own fresh food e-commerce business, but would instead build itself into a community retail digital platform to enable the digitalization of supermarkets, vegetable markets and small stores in the community retail sector. MissFresh’s current business is divided into three parts: forward warehouse delivery, smart fresh food market, and retail cloud, which is its proposed (A+B) x N strategy. Next, let’s take a look at MissFresh’s advantageous layout in the areas of smart vegetable markets and retail cloud. 2) B-Smart Market From the above analysis, in the analysis of MissFresh’s traditional forward warehouse model, we found that due to subsidies, price wars and cost pressure, this model has never been profitable. Moreover, the forward warehouse model is more suitable for first- and second-tier cities. For third- and fourth-tier cities and above, the scale of fresh food e-commerce in vegetable markets is around 60%. A smart vegetable market refers to an intelligent operation and management model achieved through the Internet+, using technologies such as the Internet of Things, cloud computing, big data, and artificial intelligence. Traditional vegetable markets are upgraded and renovated to enable them to have real-time, specific and visual information, as well as functions such as smart payment, measurement supervision, food traceability (including traceability of electronic scales and QR code traceability), data analysis and information release. 4. Analysis of major playersIn the smart vegetable market model, the main representative players include MissFresh, JD.com, Caidaquan, etc. 5. Daily Fresh Strategic AnalysisWhat is different from many smart vegetable market players is MissFresh’s smart vegetable market business. That is, a long-term contract of 10-20 years is signed with the property owner of the vegetable market, and the traditional vegetable market is transformed by upgrading its hardware infrastructure, enriching its business formats, providing merchants with in-depth value-added services, expanding online purchasing channels, and other enabling methods. 1) Positioning MissFresh opens up its basic digital capabilities to traditional vegetable markets, empowering supermarkets, vegetable markets and local retailers in the community retail sector with digital capabilities. According to Xu Zheng, MissFresh is like Taobao in the offline vegetable market sector. As a platform, it operates space and infrastructure. There are hundreds of merchants on the platform, and the merchants are responsible for all product selection, pricing, quality control, loss prevention, and even loss management. 2) Business model MissFresh is taking the approach of transforming the entire package - through digital transformation. A wet market is not just a simple trading scene with improved hardware facilities, but a community mall that integrates food, catering, entertainment and health. It also provides virtual cloud services to help merchants in the market to perform digital value-added services including marketing, stocking, and CRM, expand their online channels, and help them achieve online and offline links. 3) Service Features As a company with rich experience in fresh food operations and digital capabilities, MissFresh not only has strong supply chain capabilities for direct procurement from fresh food sources, but also has product-level support capabilities in addition to digital empowerment for merchants. In addition, based on its years of digital experience, it can also help vegetable market merchants explore more user needs, increase transaction touchpoints, and "manage users" in a way that satisfies more user value, helping vegetable markets and merchants reduce costs and increase efficiency. As of May 2021, MissFresh has operated 27 smart vegetable markets in 8 cities across the country, and will be launched in more cities in the future. 6. N-Retail CloudThe core of the fresh food e-commerce track is how to finely operate the gross profit margin of about 20% by improving efficiency and reducing costs. Therefore, it is necessary to find a balance between cost and experience, or to achieve quality service and product premium based on satisfying consumers' desire for high-quality consumption. Based on the forward warehouse instant retail model in first- and second-tier cities and the smart vegetable market model in third- and fourth-tier cities, MissFresh launched the retail cloud business in an effort to achieve an overall intelligent solution to reduce costs and increase revenue. MissFresh Retail Cloud relies on the company's smart retail network accumulated in the vertical retail field. It makes the entire retail chain AI intelligent and makes A1-A5 intelligent grading for more than 300 modules in all links including fresh product selection, ordering, quality inspection, transportation, inventory, distribution, marketing, etc. With the help of the Retail AI Network (RAIN), the system can take over most business decisions and form three core capabilities: smart supply chain management, smart logistics management, and smart marketing management. In the future, MissFresh will become an intelligent solution for the community retail industry by providing SaaS+Daas+AI services, covering product planning, supply and demand management, user online marketing, home delivery logistics services and smart store operations. 7. SummaryMissFresh is a platform company that has successfully transformed from a vertical B2C fresh food e-commerce to [(B2C forward warehouse instant retail + B-end smart vegetable market)*retail cloud business]. It is not difficult to see the advantages of MissFresh's overall strategic layout. After occupying the top of the market with the first growth curve (the forward warehouse business enabled MissFresh to go from scratch to listing in 7 years and seize a good market share), it quickly found its second growth curve. That is, empowering traditional offline vegetable markets (mainly targeting multi-tier city businesses), and leveraging the empowerment of the retail cloud model to quickly replicate data, supply chain management and other experiences in the forward warehouse model to multi-tier cities, in order to achieve rapid growth in the second curve. Next, let’s analyze from the dimension of user value to see how MissFresh accurately solves user needs. 4. User Value AnalysisAs a leading company in fresh food e-commerce, MissFresh’s main users are consumers and suppliers. We conducted a pain point analysis on these two user groups to see how MissFresh solves the problems. 1. ConsumersMissFresh describes its user profile as follows: middle-class consumers in major Chinese cities who are relatively young, tech-savvy, and good at online and social shopping. According to iResearch Consulting data, more than 50% of MissFresh's users are between 26 and 35 years old, and nearly one-third are between 36 and 45 years old. This group of people has a strong demand for efficient and fast fresh food delivery services. In addition, according to the statistics in the "2021 China Fresh Food E-commerce Industry Development Report" released by iResearch Consulting (pictured above), the most important points for first- and second-tier consumers when purchasing fresh food e-commerce online in 2020 are:
Consumers in third-tier cities and below think that ② is more important than ①, but still agree that ③ and ④ are very important. The next pain points are:
The existing solutions are basically the following 6, their advantages and disadvantages are as follows: 1) Wet Market Advantages: Cheap price. Existing problems: The safety and quality issues of fresh food e-commerce cannot be met; and consumers in first- and second-tier cities have limited time and cannot visit frequently. 2) Offline supermarkets Advantages: Rich categories and quality assurance. Existing problems: Purchases are a waste of time, and first- and second-tier consumers have limited time and cannot go there often. 3) Traditional fresh food e-commerce Advantages: Cheap price and complete product categories. Existing problems: Unable to meet food safety and freshness quality requirements; delivery time is generally 1-3 days. 4) Fresh food convenience stores Advantages: convenient to buy, quality guaranteed. Problems: Expensive prices and incomplete product categories. 5) New fresh food e-commerce based on community group purchasing model Advantages: Relatively cheap. Existing problems: Incomplete categories require regular shopping; delivery is generally the next day; must pick up items in person, but the opening and closing times of pick-up points are inconsistent, which may affect work and life schedules. 6) New fresh food e-commerce model of self-pickup at the counter Advantages: You can make an appointment in advance, and the quality is guaranteed . Problems: Incomplete categories, delivery time is usually 1-2 days We have found that these existing solutions cannot fully meet the needs of consumers. MissFresh solves the pain points of consumers through the following advantages: ① Select ingredients carefully and ensure food safety strictly 100% batch quality inspection of fresh produce ensures the safety of every bite. Quality inspection certificates can be found on the product details page, solving consumers’ pain points①. ② Channel procurement and strong supply chain capabilities Through the model of direct purchase from the origin + procurement from the wholesale market + combination of suppliers. Direct purchase from the source is affordable and can pass on the benefits to consumers through subsidies, so the final price is relatively cheap, solving consumers’ pain points ① and ②. ③ Extremely fast cold chain system and packaging system 625 forward warehouses have been deployed in 16 major cities to ensure delivery within 30 minutes and solve consumer pain points ③ and ⑤. ④ Complete product categories, covering 12 major categories that consumers need Currently, there are more than 4,000 SKUs to solve consumers’ pain points④. ⑤ The app-side platform endorsement display, customer service portal, real-time order query, delivery personnel positioning and other functions solve pain points ⑥ and ⑦. ⑥ A strong technical team (20%+ of the staff) continuously optimizes the app experience, and regularly adjusts AI design to solve pain points⑨. 2. Supply sidemy country's production and supply side shows constraints such as uneven distribution of production areas, obvious seasonal and regional differences, and reliance on the intensity of the logistics supply chain, which results in many supply chain links, long chains, and high product losses. From the production end of raw products to the hands of consumers, there are corresponding markup rates and loss rates in each link. For subdivided products, the markup rate ranges from 15% to 60%, and the loss rate ranges from 1% to 30%. This not only affects the quality and timeliness of fresh goods purchased by consumers, but also greatly compresses the profit margins on the supply side. For the suppliers of these products:
This is their main appeal, and the sales methods they currently choose are: 1) Setting up stalls/selling to surrounding markets Advantages: Relatively high profits. Existing problems: The scale and circulation range are relatively small; it is time-consuming and energy-consuming; and it is easy to become unsalable. 2) Supply goods to middlemen/supermarkets Advantages: Stable shipments; product categories can be deduced based on market demand. Existing problems: relatively high entry barriers, such as entry fees, promotional fees, etc.; long payment cycles; severe price cuts and little profit. 3) Internet celebrities promote products/sell them Advantages: Stable shipment. Existing problems: The delivery cost is uncontrollable, and the profit is often very low due to the high delivery cost; the logistics link needs to be taken care of, and the loss is serious. 4) Cooperation with community group buying business Advantages: New model with foreseeable growth potential. Existing problems: The supply and demand of a single product is uncontrollable and easily out of stock or unsalable; the product needs to bear the loss and operation work, and the after-sales service is troublesome. MissFresh solves the demands and problems on the supply side through the following methods: ①Strong supply chain system City sorting center + forward warehouse + express delivery, through direct purchase/batch purchase and one-stop warehousing and distribution mode, reduces procurement costs (giving benefits to producers, solving demand ②) and commodity loss rate (no need for the production end to worry, solving demand ③). ② Through cooperation with platforms such as Tencent, advertising, social fission, word-of-mouth communication, etc., we achieved continuous user growth, which enabled MissFresh to place stable bulk orders (solving demand ①). ③ In addition, in order to better address the demands of the supply side, MissFresh launched the "Three 0 Plan" in 2017 - 0 fees, 0 returns, and 0 account periods, increasing support for producers and changing the current sales methods of high fees, random returns, and long account periods. In 2020, it launched the "10 Billion Club Plan", investing 10 billion yuan over five years to support 10 billion-level cooperation suppliers and carry out six major empowerments. This includes channel empowerment that covers all scenarios for consumers with "ultra-fast delivery + next-day delivery + on-site delivery", R&D empowerment that drives precise development of segmented categories with big data, and data empowerment that guides the entire production process through C2M order agriculture to promote the upgrading of the large agricultural industry chain. Adopt a weekly settlement strategy with leading suppliers and provide inclusive financial funding to partners across the entire chain. 3. SummaryBy focusing on empowering the supply side, continuously iterating and optimizing the consumer experience, and satisfying consumer pain points and other detailed operations, MissFresh has gradually formed its own full-link advantages and continuously accumulated its own digital capabilities, laying a solid foundation for its retail cloud and smart vegetable market businesses. 5. Commercial Value AnalysisWe use GMV, a commonly used data indicator in e-commerce, to analyze the commercial value of MissFresh’s core business. The key indicators that affect GMV are: number of platform users, first-order conversion rate and average order value (purchase frequency and single purchase amount). 1. Increase the number of platform users1) Payment channels 2) Free channels 2. Improve conversion rateAfter guiding users to download the APP/enter the mini program through various means, it is only valuable to the platform after allowing users to complete the purchase and payment behavior step by step, that is, converting from a new user into a paying user of the platform. Target users can be roughly divided into two types: those with clear goals and those with unclear goals. The behavior path of goal-oriented users is: Search for products - (enter the details page) - add products to the shopping cart - pay. The behavior path of users with unclear goals is: Browse products/activities - view details - browse products - view details - add products to cart - (and other repeated processes) - pay. For users with unclear goals, it is necessary to design more activity discounts to create a purchasing atmosphere and attract the desire to place orders. For users with clear goals, the purchase path needs to be shortened as much as possible to speed up the decision-making process and payment; Next, let’s look at the user path and see how MissFresh guides users to improve conversion rates through step-by-step design: 1) Activity homepage For users who have unclear goals, entering the event homepage and seeing a wealth of products and event stimuli will attract users' desire to shop and lead them to add to their cart. 2) Above the fold ① 1-2 screens 1- The homepage introduces low-priced products, and the carefully taken pictures are more attractive, which attracts users to make the first step of adding products to the shopping cart; 2- Remind you of free shipping for the first order and new customer activities. The "Get it now" button is quite eye-catching, tempting you to click to receive the red envelope and get discounts. After clicking, you can see the interface of receiving all coupons with one click, and recommendations for new customers. There is always one product drawn from the sales list that will excite you. ② 3-4 screens 3- Category interface, showing Daily Youxian’s rich product category reserves to increase the average order value. 4-Mid-Autumn Festival, today’s flash sale, discover good products, and single product recommendation interface to stimulate purchases through multiple discounts. 3) Search product list page For users with clear goals, searching and clicking on segmented category recommendations are commonly used functions. After entering the list page, it is sorted by comprehensive, sales volume and price. The default is the comprehensive sorting method recommended by the platform's big data. Users can choose to sort by sales volume (herd mentality) or price (expected price positioning) to help quickly filter the products they want. On the search list page, the first picture that has the greatest visual impact is the homepage, and some of the homepage pictures even use animated images to enhance the visual effect. Secondly, we can see that the prices are highlighted, partly with promotional logos (such as 2nd piece at 0 yuan, 2nd piece at xx% off), further emphasizing the discount of the goods. The prominent ➕ in the lower right corner of each product reminds users to add items to their cart at all times. 4) Product details page Most of the fresh food e-commerce users go directly to the payment process after adding items to cart, but there are still a small number of users who have doubts about the products and will click on the product details page of a single product to further browse before deciding whether to buy it. The emphasis on food safety and consumer protection on the MissFresh product details page has dispelled the concerns of some consumers. ① Further improve willingness to pay The monitoring report in the lower left corner of the product image and the promise at the bottom help consumers dispel their purchasing concerns. Product specifications, product promotions (second piece at 0 Yuan), product inclusion in the word-of-mouth list, and user evaluation sections further create an atmosphere for the event, build popularity, and prompt users to accelerate purchases. Delivery time estimation gives users certainty and stimulates their desire to place orders. ② Increase the average order value The recommended products and "Guess You Like" sections can further increase users' desire to add products to their shopping cart by recommending different products in related categories, thereby increasing the average order value of a single purchase. 5) Shopping cart page and checkout page ① Increase willingness to pay By displaying promotional information, such as preferential exchange rates for purchases of xx pieces or more, delivery within 30 minutes at the fastest, and free basic delivery fees for new users, the willingness to pay is further enhanced. ② Further increase in average order value Daily Youxian's average order value has always been at the forefront of the industry. Even on the shopping cart interface, we can see that users are stimulated to buy more through added items and discount displays, and through promotions (xx discount on the second item, 1 yuan for the second item). The checkout page pops up again (fruits/flowers/yogurt) to attract users to make additional purchases and increase the average order value. 6) Payment process During the payment process, users can choose from a variety of payment methods such as WeChat/Alipay/QuickPass/Huabei/bank card, making it convenient for users to place orders. 3. Increase average order value1) Increase the single purchase amount 2) Increase purchase frequency 4. SummaryMissFresh expands its user base by attracting new users through multiple paid channels, and continuously improves its brand coverage, product richness and reputation, increases the recommendation rate of old users, continuously expands the user pool and reduces the overall customer acquisition cost. The membership system and activity system are used to improve the first-order payment conversion rate and average order value. The optimization and polishing of these details have enabled MissFresh to maintain its leading position in the industry. 6. Product Iteration Analysis1. Overall iterative arrangementIn order to have a clearer understanding of MissFresh’s product logic and iteration rhythm, we have sorted out the core versions since its launch at the end of April 2015 and the new additions and optimizations of each iteration. The details are as follows: Next, we analyzed the data based on the Android app download volume and growth rate trends. The data showed that since May, the Android app began cold start testing with 505 users, and continued to expand the user base for continuous testing and iteration. After the basic functions of the product were completed in November 2015, it began to be mass-produced in December. Based on the analysis of the functional iteration version and the download trend of the Android app, we divide MissFresh into three stages: 1) Start-up period From version 1.0 to version 2.0 in 2015, we continuously improved basic functions from 0 to 1, verified user needs, and improved user experience. 2) Growth stage From version 3.0 in 2016 to version 9.8.27 in 2020, we continued to improve conversion rates, collaborate with external parties, and increase the development of operational tools, resulting in continuous growth in users during this period. 3) Maturity Starting from the version released in April 2020, MissFresh has been continuously fixing bugs and improving basic functions to further enhance user experience and conversion rate. At the same time, functions were added to maintain user activity and retention rate and to find a second growth point. During this period, the number of users of Daily Youxian occasionally exploded, but the overall trend was a stable growth. 2. Critical Stages1 ) Start-up period The main purpose of the startup phase is to find user needs, verify success, and continue to scale up testing and iterate repeatedly. The 1.0 version of MissFresh mainly focuses on users purchasing fresh products, continuously improving and optimizing the basic purchasing functions, and constantly fixing bugs encountered by users. For example: fix the problem of no prompt for expired products during direct purchase, fix the problem of multiple pop-ups of products when the network is slow, fix the problem of login failure due to shopping cart synchronization problems, etc. In addition, new functions such as coupons, redemption codes, sign-in, recharge, and group purchase have been added to empower channel sales and operational growth. With the increase of MissFresh's offline forward warehouses, the app has also added multi-region support and added address label functions, making user positioning more accurate, thereby improving the speed of delivery experience. It was not until version 2.0 that we started working on features to attract new users, such as "group buying, check-in, etc." This was an important sign of moving from the startup phase to the growth phase, allowing MissFresh to continue to fission and increase its user base. 2) Growth stage The main objectives of the growth stage are: continuously optimize products, expand promotion channels, continuously attract new users and retain users, so that the number of users continues to increase. ① In terms of product optimization From version 3.0 in 2016 to version 9.8.27 in 2020, MissFresh has been continuously improving its basic functions. For example: adding mobile phone number login, optimizing the 2-hour delivery experience and real-time viewing of arrival/courier routes, adding the world's top ingredients, search function, evaluation function, etc., continuously optimizing UI details and visual effects, and continuously improving the underlying architecture. It allows users to quickly find the products they want and smoothly complete each step including adding items to cart, placing orders, and receiving goods. In particular, we continue to optimize the 2-hour delivery experience, and have added multi-region support, precise selection of delivery address labels and delivery addresses, and automatic positioning functions for orders to our products, making the regional positioning of forward warehouses more accurate. Continue to add the world's top ingredients and enrich product categories. We have launched overtime compensation services, 24-hour online customer service, real-time positioning of delivery personnel, contactless delivery and other services to continuously improve users' purchasing and after-sales experience. ② In terms of channel expansion We will continue to cooperate with the market to implement channel promotion functions, such as channel code functions, corporate in-app purchases, cooperation with offline bus stops to share 100 million cash activities, cooperation with membership systems and points malls and other old-to-new activities, etc., to continuously expand channels and help reduce customer acquisition costs, so that the user scale will grow steadily. ③ In terms of new user conversion Continue to cooperate with the operations side to carry out new customer acquisition activities. For example: new customer coupons, invitation rebates, first order discounts and gifts, registration to become a member, limited time flash sales, quick order placement, collect cards to get cash, new customers buy for 0 yuan/deposit 100 and get 100, etc. And constantly improve the shopping experience for new users. For example: details such as intelligent product recommendations, automatic order positioning, Huabei payment, and sold-out notification optimization have led to a continuous increase in new users and an ongoing improvement in conversion rates. ④ In terms of retaining old users For example: check-in, buyer’s comment (what to eat), Wednesday membership day, family membership, points mall, fresh currency discount and other functions to improve the activity and retention rate of old users. 3) Maturity Since May 2020, MissFresh has entered a stage of stable growth. The main goal of this stage is to continuously attract new users and maintain old users. During this period, MissFresh stratified users based on its huge user base, recommended products intelligently, restructured the points system, enriched and upgraded membership benefits, and paid more attention to refined customer acquisition operations. On this basis, it achieved stable and continuous growth mainly through old customers bringing in new customers and word-of-mouth growth. And keep iterating on the details. For example: visual and interactive experience, customer service experience, user add-to-cart and payment process optimization, etc., continuously increase user stickiness and consolidate brand awareness. 3. SummaryOverall, MissFresh’s product iteration rhythm is very steady. We continuously polished our products from the start-up phase, iterated the MVP model in small steps, and with the help of capital, we invested in brands and channels to quickly gain explosive growth in users. It quickly captured the minds of fresh food e-commerce users, and during this period continued to optimize the user experience, achieving steady growth thanks to word-of-mouth recommendations from large-scale users. 7. Product structure analysisIn the iterative analysis, we analyzed the iterative steps of MissFresh’s product functions. Next, let’s take a look at what user needs these functions meet and how they are distributed throughout the app. This is mainly analyzed through product structure. The following figure is the product structure mind map of Daily Fresh V9.9.56: 1. Overall structural analysisDaily Youxian app is mainly designed into 5 major sections: Home, Category, What to Eat, Shopping Cart, and Mine. Let's take a look at these 5 sections separately: 1) Home page Users with unclear purchasing purposes can learn about the platform's product categories and see various promotional activities (recommendations for early adopters, holiday events, today's flash sales, good products, etc.) on the homepage, which attracts their desire to consume. We also attract users to make additional purchases through benefits such as free shipping for the first order and discounts for purchases over a certain amount. Users with clear purchase purposes can directly search for the product to purchase additional purchases. 2) Category If users who have relatively unclear purchase purpose only know what type of product they want, they can find the products they want to purchase more through the classification function. Users with clear purchase purpose can directly search for the product to purchase, or click on the category to purchase. Secondly, for all users, the classification function allows users to clearly see the platform's rich product reserves. 3) What to eat Many users know that they want to buy things and spend money, but they don’t know what they want to eat. So by clicking on the section on what to eat, you will see other people’s recipes, recommendations and evaluations. After reading the recipe, you will provide a list of ingredients for purchases below, and you can choose to purchase them. 4) Shopping cart For e-commerce users, shopping carts are a must-have function. Users can see what they want to buy and discount information here. Users can choose to add/delete products here, and they can modify them here. 5) Mine Click - Mine to see order details, member details, latest activities, after-sales service, etc. 2. Scenario analysisSince the main target users of MissFresh’s mobile terminal are consumers, the focus is on meeting consumers’ purchasing needs. We re-examine the product structure according to users, scenarios, needs and functions as follows: Since the Daily Youxian app mainly targets consumers of fresh products, it focuses on meeting the different needs of consumers in four scenarios: 1) Before placing an order Before placing an order on MissFresh for the first time, most users only heard that MissFresh can buy things or buy things with discounts, but they don’t know the details, so the app still needs to solve the concerns of different types of users before placing an order. ① Time-sensitive user I heard that it can reach the fastest, so can it be reached in my area? How long will it take to deliver? What items are there to choose from? In response to this point, MissFresh solves user concerns in the upper left corner of the homepage "Address Positioning", product classification, multiple estimated delivery time reminders, etc. (refer to the table above); at the same time, the relevant pages have search functions, which facilitates users with clear targets to directly purchase and save time. ② Price-sensitive users I will care about whether there are discounts for Daily Youxian, and enter the app with the attitude of giving it a try and try it. For this group of users, the popular red envelopes of the new customers of Daily Youxian, the event promotion discount banner carousel on the homepage, the full-time discount activities, today's flash sale activities, festival promotions, etc., gave discounts and created a purchase atmosphere of discounts for the whole venue. ③ Quality-sensitive users When buying fresh food, you will care very much: whether the platform is reliable, whether the fresh food is fresh and safe, and whether anyone has bought it before and what is the review. For these people, the safety qualification certificates on the homepage of the [Qualifications and Rules] part of the product details page of the Daily Youxian app can enhance users' recognition of fresh food quality. The evaluation section of the product details page and the UGC content of the user in the "What to Eat" community section can further enhance users' sense of trust. ④ Don’t know what to eat and what type of user to buy For this type of users, MissFresh has launched the "What to Eat" community. Through the recommendations of community PGC and UGC, users can place orders with one click after reading it. 2) Ordering When the user has a basic sense of trust in the platform and wants to purchase products, the user enters the ordering process. At this time, the platform must accelerate the user's selection of products, submit orders and pay. ① Accelerate the purchase of goods There are "➕" purchase instructions with obvious background colors below all interfaces. After purchasing additional purchases, enter the shopping cart interface to see the details of all purchased products, discount details, discounts and exchanges. There is still a shortage of xx yuan for free shipping and other reminders. If you still have some amount of money to meet the discount conditions, you can use the "Shop again" recommended by the platform and select the "Come orders with discounts" function. Additional reminders for the xx discount amount after being fully paid can enable users to quickly choose the products they want and clarify the discounts they can enjoy. ② Submit order and pay After clarifying the details of the amount, discount, free shipping, etc., users can go to the settlement directly. The settlement page reminds again "fast delivery of 30 minutes", the total amount of the product and the discount amount enjoyed, red envelopes used, invoices available, etc. It also provides a variety of payment methods: WeChat, Alipay, Cloud Flash Payment, etc., which facilitates users to make quick payments. 3) After placing an order After the user places an order, he needs to know whether the order information is successful, the delivery status, and the expected delivery time. In response to this, MissFresh has given a very clear order details, and allows users to view merchant delivery progress, rider pickup, rider route, and expected delivery time details in real time, giving users a clear sense of certainty and control. If you need to cancel the order and modify the delivery location in special circumstances, you can initiate it in time through the order details page, and the merchant will determine whether he agrees to cancel or continue delivery based on the real-time situation. 4) After receiving the goods What is very important for fresh food e-commerce shopping is the after-sales service. After purchase, Daily Youxian will promptly guide users to post reviews. If you encounter bad reviews and need a refund or exchange scenario, you can initiate after-sales service and communicate with customer service to deal with it in a timely manner. If you need to issue an invoice, MissFresh provides invoice support. If you need to get another order, you can click "One Another Order" and go directly to the shopping cart to settle, saving user time. 3. SummaryWe can see that in the four main scenarios of users, including before purchase, during order, after order, and after receipt, MissFresh has designed corresponding functional modules to meet the needs of consumers. The product structure is highlighted for the different functions required by different users. In addition, several event banner locations have been designed to display invitation gifts, support activities, member activities, etc. Through the old and new activities, we can achieve low-cost customer acquisition. Overall, the product design is very complete. 8. Operation path analysisProducts and operations are complementary. When a product gives birth to a child, good operations are needed to raise them better and healthier. This shows the importance of operation work in the entire user life cycle. Next, we use the pirate model, namely the AARRR model, to help us analyze the operational behaviors done by MissFresh in the user life cycle. Since the data cannot be obtained, this analysis focuses on analyzing the operational path and strategy parts. 1. Marketing customer acquisition direction [acquisitiong]MissFresh mainly achieves rapid user growth through content marketing, traffic purchasing, word-of-mouth fission, event marketing, cross-industry cooperation and offline promotion. Let’s take a look at how each direction is done separately. 1) Content marketing customer acquisition Content marketing is one of the good ways to acquire customers at low cost. By building your own content channels, you can reduce your dependence on external delivery channels, and most of the fans you attract are of high quality, and your trust in the brand will be relatively high. To this end, MissFresh operates official accounts on platforms such as Shuangwei Yido, Kuaishou, and Xiaohongshu, and outputs high-quality content based on the characteristics of different platforms to achieve the purpose of accurate customer acquisition. ① Weibo Join forces with hot topics and marketing nodes to initiate Weibo super talks to quickly increase brand exposure. Keep up with hot content, frequently send discounts/reposts/lotteries and other activities to achieve growth in Weibo fans. Combined with festivals. ② WeChat official account The official official account "Missue Daily Youxian" estimates that the number of active fans is 710,000, the average reading of headlines is 4.8,000, and the average reading of the second list is 5,300+. It is updated 3-6 items every week, and the time is stable between 9:00-10:00. Combined with video accounts and mini programs, the purpose of user growth and conversion is achieved. Regular update column - Recipe: Generally updated one article every week. Original + dry content is easier to improve fan retention rate and form a habit of watching it regularly every week. Chasing hot topics: combine festival hot topics, online hot topics, etc., and timely ride on hot topics to increase the opening rate of articles. Promotion content: Marketing that does not aim for monetization is all double hooligans. The official official account of MissFresh also launched a variety of promotional activities, such as: lottery, red envelope fission, full discount, special price rush, group purchase, etc., to improve user conversion rate. ③ TikTok From May 6, 2020 to July 26, 2021, the official Douyin has updated a total of 106 works, gaining 430,000 fans. The content mainly focuses on two columns: fresh dishes and home-cooked dishes in the daily series, and most of the others are mixed brand promotion videos. Updates have been temporarily suspended since July. After analyzing the data in the past 90 days, the daily increase in likes has been in two figures, and the number of fans has continued to decline. Moreover, the account has not opened a product window, and there is no record of selling goods within the past 180 days. Users need to be diverted to other channels to place orders. From this point of view, the user growth to the conversion link will cause a lot of loss. ④ Quick hand From February 2020 to May 2021, the official account of Youxian Kuaishou released 79 works, most of which were mixed and edited by brand/Tikong videos, which did not conform to the Kuaishou ecosystem, and the title cover design was rough, with slow growth of only 1,000 fans, and no user attempts to monetize and convert. ⑤ app【what to eat】 What to eat is the community ecosystem recommended for catering recipes in the Daily Youxian app. In the early days, only PGC content was recommended, and now it has formed an ecosystem that is dominated by PGC and can also participate in paid UGC. The content includes: recommendations, recipes, private dishes, Kuaishou dishes, weight loss recipes, breakfast and other sections, covering the recipe recommendation needs of first- and second-tier white-collar users. After reading the recipe recommendations and comments, you can also see the corresponding ingredients recommendations and one-click purchase functions below, which efficiently saves users' purchasing time and accelerates the ordering process. 2) Traffic purchasing buyers ① Tencent advertising placement Through cooperation with Tencent, on the one hand, it attracts users through Tencent’s circle of friends, official accounts, and mini programs. On the other hand, it can accurately place users through big data, and achieve social fission effect of old customers leading new customers. With the help of AI intelligent marketing and geo-based LBS positioning, the customer acquisition cost of MissFresh is reported to have dropped by 30%. Now mini programs have become a vital channel for MissFresh to compete with the app. ② KOL launch Cooperate with travel, food, and emotional public accounts to place annual card member discount benefits on Shenzhen Local Treasure, Jingchenghuiwan, Changyou Yantian, Dameisha Reservation Platform and other public accounts (29.9 yuan/44 yuan to purchase, etc., and it costs 88 yuan to open the app). ③ Weibo Fans Based on Weibo user big data portraits, we realize precise targeting of the crowd and restrict regional delivery. At the same time, we use the comment area to increase the interactive mechanism, improve the comment interaction rate, and realize the long-tail effect of delivery. ④ Information flow advertising Some mobile game platforms place down-to-earth information flow advertisements to guide download apps to receive red envelopes. 3) Event marketing customers ① Festival activities Keep up with the hot spots of the festival, launch corresponding thematic activities to set off a discount atmosphere and promote consumers' shopping desire. For example: The Mid-Autumn Festival is themed "Mid-Autumn Festival reunion and dinner at home", and launched an event with a discount of 40 yuan for every 99 yuan. The second item in the venue starts from 0 yuan, and a limited-time hairy crab 4 special sale event of 69.9 yuan. Activities for purchases over 29 yuan on Teacher's Day; limited-time discount activities for Chinese Valentine's Day. ② E-commerce node activities E-commerce promotion nodes are an excellent time to promote users to place orders. Daily Youxian also attaches great importance to it. Generally, preheating activities will be released 2 weeks in advance, and then the corresponding rush purchase strategy will be launched at the countdown. For example: The theme event of 618’s Heat Wave Fresh Festival launched a 500 yuan stockpiling red envelope combination; the invitation to Double Eleven received a 100 yuan red envelope discount of 199 yuan, and a 75% discount on membership card opening, etc. 4) Cooperation in other industries to acquire customers Brands similar to user groups to cooperate in other industries is a relatively cheap cooperation model with accurate customer acquisition. ① Joint customized membership card for example:
② Traffic replacement Linked to UnionPay Online Shopping Festival, use CloudLian Flash Payment to purchase at random during the specified period. Ivy father members will receive an annual card of 88 yuan for Daily Youxian membership; the Daily Youxian Union members will receive a 6-month membership. ③ Online e-commerce platform The single channel of the MissDaily Youxian APP cannot continue to achieve the growth of the number of users. MissDaily Youxian has successively entered Meituan, Ele.me, and JD.com, and has achieved further growth by relying on the existing number of users of its competitors. 5) Offline and underground customers ① Recruiting offline promotion teams In the community and recruitment websites, the job responsibilities of Youxian, Youxian, is to guide customers to download the app, complete the first order purchase and give gifts. The ground promotion specialist enjoys basic salary + commission + order rewards; users enjoy discounts such as new gifts and red envelope reduction. For this purpose, the app has also developed corresponding redemption code functions to support this business model. ② Offline channel business cooperation It is often settled in the form of a CPA. The number of new customers placed after receiving the coupon is the settlement indicator, and the 7-day repurchase/retention is used as the assessment ladder standard to avoid channel cheating. 2. Activity improvement direction [activation]Factors that affect activity include daily active users (DAU), average usage time, and daily startup times. Next, let’s take a look at the aspects of daily active users in which they can improve their activity. 1) New user red envelopes/coupons When the user is recruited and downloaded the app, he will see the first order free shipping and the newcomer's exclusive red envelope. Click to receive the pop-up red envelope details immediately and easily attract people to complete the first order after receiving it. 2) What to eat” Community Users who don’t know what to eat will click on the app and enter the recommended section. After seeing the recipe you like, they will add one click to guide the order and purchase it very smoothly. The frequently updated recipes will attract users to open the app many times, forming the habit of being active regularly on the Daily Youxian platform. 3) Diversified activities As mentioned in the "Event Marketing Customer Acquisition Direction", Daily Youxian follows festival activities and various nodes, carries out marketing activities with various interesting themes, and improves user participation and activity. 4) SMS push Daily Youxian will push the user through text messages and the app's message push section based on your participation activity progress and the latest promotions to guide the user to enter the app again. 3. Improve retention direction [retention]In recent years, channel promotion prices have become higher and higher, and the cost of acquiring customers has been rising. If users quickly lose new products after recruiting new products, it will be a continuous loss-making transaction for enterprises, so it has become extremely important to improve retention rates. The cost of retaining an old customer is much lower than the cost of acquiring new users. The higher the user retention rate, the higher the probability of cash flow. MissFresh mainly improves retention through points malls and membership systems. 1) Points Mall Users can earn points every time they place an order, and the points mall can use points to exchange for goods or red envelopes for full discount. These will attract users to use Daily Youxian first when purchasing again. 2) Membership system The membership section of MissFresh is very complete, and the latest membership system in September 2021 is. The exclusive 8 benefits include: free member dishes, exclusive member coupons, free member coupons, exclusive member price, member family card, membership day every Wednesday and Friday, double points rebate and exclusive customer service response. In addition, the first month's special offer is 4.9 yuan and the annual card is 78 yuan (equivalent to 6.5 yuan/month), which is very worth buying for high-frequency consumer users. 4. Increase revenue direction [revenue]This part has been analyzed in the commercial value part. Daily Youxian has made many effective strategies in increasing the number of platform users, first order conversion rate and customer unit price (purchase frequency and single purchase amount), so that GMV continues to increase. 5. Improve sharing direction [refer]In order to effectively reduce CAC, MissFresh has also done a lot of operational work in improving the efficiency of self-propagation. Since we cannot know the specific data (such as cost, K value, etc.), we will analyze the operation path direction to see how Daily Youxian effectively improves the sharing participation rate and number of sharing times. 1) Recommended with prizes Recommended prizes are that Daily Youxian uses large coupons as a hook to carry out an activity for old paid users to bring new paid users [placing the first order within 3 days after being invited and signing for it]. After being invited, new users will receive a red envelope combination of 168 yuan. While giving incentives to old users and new users at the same time, they will continue to increase the sharing rate of old users and the conversion rate of new users’ first orders. 2) Support activities ① Help get coupons The rewards for the support activities include commodity coupons, and there are 0 yuan members that can deduct cash coupons. The support forms are divided into "national support" and "newcomer support". The number of assisted people also ranges from 1 to 5 people. The diversity of choices gives users full autonomy and initiative. They can consider and choose a support project that suits them according to their own preferences and the costs they are willing to pay. ② Help the lottery In addition to regular assistance, we have also launched a lottery opportunity (100% winning) event, which has changed the event gimmick to attract users to participate in a variety of activities, allowing users to continue to feel fresh in participating in the event. 6. SummaryWe see the key things that Daily Youxian does at each stage of the user's life cycle "new recruitment-activation-retention-conversion-fission". With the help of good operational strategies, Daily Youxian has formed a complete closed loop of the AARRR model, thereby maintaining stable growth. 9. Future Outlook/Optimization SuggestionsAbove, the author has seven parts: industry, competitors, user value, commercial value, product iteration, product structure, and operation. The reasons behind the rise of MissFresh were systematically analyzed, so how will it develop in the future? The author used the SWOT model to analyze the current opportunity threats and its own advantages and disadvantages of MissFresh, and gave optimization suggestions based on SO, ST, WO, and WT analysis as follows: The end of the market will not be the only one. Because retail has never been a business that determines the end of the situation by model, the vast retail market is enough to support the development of various models. However, even if the market is driven by capital, the number of users will be rapidly growing or rapidly declining. But in the end, it will return to the essence of making profits. Only by achieving profits as soon as possible can we gain the favor of the market for a long time. These rely on their own continuous polishing management capabilities, operation capabilities and supply chain capabilities to gradually form their own differentiated advantages and real moats. This article is based on my own cognition analysis. If you see friends who have different opinions and analysis, please feel free to communicate. Author: Wang Dayin Source: Wang Dayin |
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