The International Space Station will be abandoned in 2024, and my country's space station will become the only one at that time. Is this true?

This article is based on answering similar questions from netizens. In a pragmatic manner, my answer may disappoint many people: after 2024, it is unlikely that the Chinese space station will become the only space station in space.

Why do we say that? There are three reasons: First, the International Space Station will not be abandoned and fall into the Pacific Ocean in 2024, but will continue to fly; second, the United States is building the Deep Space Gate, a lunar orbital space station, which is likely to be operational around 2024; third, Russia has also announced that it will build its own space station.

The construction and operation history of the International Space Station

The construction of the International Space Station began in the 1990s. The cost and technical management are mainly borne by the United States, which bears about 70%. The reason it is called the International Space Station rather than the American Space Station is because this space station is a collaborative project of 16 countries. The United States takes the lead, and Russia, 11 member states of the European Space Agency (France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland), Japan, Canada and Brazil, a total of 16 countries participate in its construction and maintenance.

Of course, these countries also have the right to use the International Space Station. The entire International Space Station cost about 160 billion US dollars. So far, 900 astronauts and related researchers have worked in this air laboratory, making great contributions to basic and applied sciences of mankind.

The service life of the International Space Station was originally planned to be 10 to 15 years. Its construction began in 1990 and was divided into three phases. It did not reach its current size until 2010. In fact, the International Space Station was not officially put into use until the construction was completed. As early as November 2, 2000, the International Space Station received the first astronauts, who were Russian astronauts Krikalev and Gidzenko and American astronaut Shepard.

If we count from 2000, the International Space Station has been in use for 21 years. This project is estimated to have cost a total of 160 billion US dollars, completed about 900 manned space experiments, and made certain contributions to basic scientific research for mankind. However, due to its large scale, it costs a lot of money to maintain it, and it has been in operation for a long time. It also faces problems such as aging of equipment, which affects the overall safety. Therefore, it is only a matter of time before it is withdrawn from operation.

Will the International Space Station fall in 2024?

In recent years, we have often seen some discussions on the Internet: the International Space Station will be retired in 2024, and by then China will be the only space station in the sky. Therefore, if the world wants to conduct any space experiments, they can only ask us to cooperate.

It is reported that the Americans also wanted to get a share of our space station, but we ignored them because they found more than a dozen partners, including Russia, in the activities of the International Space Station, and excluded us. Today, it is our turn to be proud of ourselves. It is natural that we ignored them, and it is retribution.

Will the International Space Station really fall into the Pacific Ocean in 2024, like Russia's Mir space station? I can assure you that it will not.

The fundamental reason why the Mir space station fell into the Pacific Ocean was that Russia had no money to support the huge expenses.

Originally, although the Mir space station was very old and reportedly had more than 1,500 problems that needed to be solved, it had no problem operating. However, to maintain its operation, two spacecraft had to be launched to raise its gradually lowered orbit, and huge maintenance and operation costs had to be borne later. Russia's economic situation was really unable to bear it, so it had no choice but to let it crash.

The International Space Station is 110 meters long and 88 meters wide, about the size of two football fields, with a total mass of more than 400 tons. It is the largest and most advanced man-made space station in history. Such a large system is not as fragile as people imagine, and it is not discarded or crashed if it breaks down.

Although the strength of the United States is completely incomparable to that of Russia, the service life of the International Space Station has long expired, and the maintenance and management costs are huge. NASA needs to allocate more funds to go into deep space, so it does not want to spend too much on it and will gradually withdraw from the operation and management of the space station after 2024. However, as early as 2017, it was discussed with Russia that the use of the International Space Station would be extended to 2028.

After this, the International Space Station will most likely be handed over to private commercial companies for management. In this way, the residual heat of the International Space Station can still be utilized, and the scope of use of the space will be greatly expanded. Perhaps in the future many private companies will conduct experiments, shoot movies, and organize sightseeing tours there. It is very likely that the space station will become a space station open to the public.

NASA is currently looking for private buyers. I think the world is so big and there are so many rich people, and there will be many bigwigs who are interested in getting a piece of the pie. Therefore, the saying that only China will have a space station in space after 2024 is just wishful thinking of some people, and some new and deeper space station construction has already started internationally.

The upcoming deep space gateway

What is more certain is that NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) has already started the construction plan of the Deep Space Gateway Space Station. This space station is a space station deeper than the current space station, and it will be stationed in the Earth-Moon orbit. In other words, this space station is far from the current space station's 400km altitude above the Earth's surface, but will operate in an orbit of more than 380,000km from the Earth's orbit to the Moon's orbit.

This space station is not as large as the International Space Station. After completion, it can only accommodate four astronauts. However, its role is more far-reaching than the current International Space Station, symbolizing an upgrade in human deep space exploration. The main task of this space station is to study deeper space issues and become a springboard and platform for humans to move into deep space.

In the past, humans went to the moon once every thousand years, and humans only went there in the last century. With the Deep Space Gateway space station, it is very likely that there will be regular flights to the moon in the future, and even "buses" will be opened. Because from now on, humans will no longer go to the moon "directly", but will have a relay station.

To go to the moon, the spacecraft only needs to dock with the Deep Space Gateway space station, unload the people and cargo, and then transfer to the shuttle to the moon. The same is true for the return trip, which only requires ascending to orbit and docking with the Deep Space Gateway, and then taking the "bus" back to Earth.

Moreover, this deep space gateway will also become a platform for future human exploration into deeper space. For example, the manned landing on Mars around 2033 will most likely start from this space station.

The Deep Space Gate will begin to build the first batch of cabins in orbit in 2022 and will be fully completed in 2026. By then, it will cooperate with NASA's mission to return to the moon and establish a lunar base in 2024, train astronauts to Mars, and prepare for manned travel to Mars around 2033.

The construction cost and technical support of the Deep Space Gateway space station will replicate the cooperation model of the International Space Station, with 16 countries still participating, including Russia, which announced its withdrawal from cooperation on the International Space Station. An interface for Russian spacecraft will be reserved on the space station.

At the same time, some countries have announced that they will build their own space stations. For example, Russia has announced that it will build a new generation of space station, called the Orbital Navigation Assembly and Experimental Facility, which is planned to be launched before the International Space Station is retired. Some countries such as the European Union also have this consideration.

But the current trend is towards international cooperation, which is much more cost-effective than independent construction and operation by a single country. Therefore, it is difficult to say whether any country will be able to put a space station independently built into orbit in the future.

No matter how the future develops, the chances of China being the only space station left in the vast space are slim. Even so, the important role of China's space station in human spaceflight is irreplaceable and will surely leave a unique page in the history of human spaceflight.

What do you think? Welcome to discuss, thanks for reading.

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