Starlink satellites dangerously approached the Chinese space station twice. How to avoid space conflicts?

On June 1, 2022, Zhang Zhihui, associate researcher at the Institute of the History of Natural Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, was invited to publish an English commentary article entitled "Avoiding a collision course over space privilege" at the East Asia Forum, an internationally renowned policy research platform, commenting on the two incidents in 2021 in which the US Starlink satellite almost collided with the Chinese space station. The author pointed out that in the space orbit shared by mankind, all parties should abide by the "traffic rules" and avoid running amok in space. Strengthening information disclosure and risk management, and enhancing cooperation among all parties on space security are in line with the common long-term interests of China, the United States and all mankind in space. (The original article is attached, and this article has been supplemented and revised by the author.)

Written by Zhang Zhihui (Associate Researcher, Institute of the History of Natural Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

On April 29, 2021, the Tianhe core module of the Chinese space station was successfully launched. A complaint letter written by China to the United Nations on December 6, 2021 shows that in accordance with Article 5 of the Outer Space Treaty, "States Parties to the Treaty shall immediately notify other States Parties to the Treaty or the Secretary-General of the United Nations of any phenomena they discover in outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, that may endanger the life or health of astronauts", China specifically notified the Secretary-General of the United States of the following phenomena that threaten the life or health safety of astronauts on the Chinese space station [1]: In 2021, two Starlink satellites launched by Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) suddenly descended from low-Earth orbits of 500 kilometers and 555 kilometers respectively, and had two close encounters with the Chinese space station, which was operating stably in a near-circular orbit of about 390 kilometers. From May 16 to June 24, 2021, the Starlink-1095 satellite continuously operated to an orbit of about 382 kilometers and then stayed in that orbit. On July 1, 2021, the satellite had a close contact with the Chinese space station. On October 21, Starlink Satellite-2305 had been moving autonomously, and its movement strategy was unknown, making it difficult to assess the orbital error. At the time, the Chinese space station was carrying three Chinese astronauts, and the consequences of an accident were unimaginable. For safety reasons, the Chinese space station implemented preventive emergency measures on July 1 and October 21, 2021, respectively, changing the movement orbit of the space station's "Tianhe" core module to avoid a collision with the Starlink satellite. As a responsible space power, China would like to ask the United Nations to distribute the above information to all States Parties to the Outer Space Treaty and draw their attention to it. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemns the US's disregard for the safety of the Chinese space station and astronauts performing missions in space.

Figure: Documents submitted by China to the United Nations regarding the two times that Starlink satellites almost hit the Chinese space station

There are four main speculations and related explanations about the cause of the incident. The first is that SpaceX proactively lowered the orbital altitude of its Starlink satellites to deorbit them at the end of their lifespan. In 2019, a Starlink satellite nearly collided with a European Space Agency weather satellite after testing automatic deorbit technology. The second explanation is that SpaceX lowered the orbit of the Starlink satellite to shorten the delay in satellite-to-ground communications, thereby promoting the Starlink satellite system to achieve the intended goal of global network communications as originally claimed. The third explanation is that the Starlink satellite lost control, which has precedents. Another explanation is that this was a deliberate space test commissioned by the US military.

Whatever the reason, the United States should not use "corporate behavior" as an excuse to shirk its responsibility for SpaceX's behavior as a signatory to the Outer Space Treaty. According to Article 6 of the treaty, "States Parties to the Treaty shall bear international responsibility for their activities in outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, whether such activities are carried out by governmental agencies or non-governmental entities, and shall ensure that their activities are carried out in accordance with the provisions of the Treaty." The United States has been promoting the so-called concept of "responsible behavior in outer space", but it has ignored its obligations under the international treaties on outer space and posed a serious threat to the lives and safety of Chinese astronauts. This is a typical double standard. China's note to the United Nations reminds the world that the United States needs to become a responsible space power.

At the UN's call, the United States finally submitted a note to the UN in early 2022. In the note, the United States claimed that after data estimation, it was found that due to the automatic avoidance system of the Starlink satellite, the possibility of collision with the Chinese space station was not great, and the Starlink satellite had the ability to automatically avoid collisions. China questioned the validity of this statement: Why did the Starlink satellite approach the Chinese space station at a close distance when it had an automatic avoidance system? The collision avoidance maneuvering mechanism set up in advance for a single satellite by the Starlink satellite system may lead to a chain reaction and increase the overall collision risk of the satellite system. What is the so-called established emergency collision standard of the United States? Moreover, why has the United States been slow to respond positively? In addition to increasing the risk of spacecraft collisions, the "rampant" behavior of Starlink satellites in low-Earth orbit also threatens the safety of astronauts from Japan, the United States, Russia and China. As the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said, the United States should respect the international order in outer space based on international law and take measures to prevent such incidents from happening again.

One of the main purposes of the Starlink program is to blatantly seize low-Earth orbit resources, that is, orbital resources in free space at an altitude of about one-third of the Earth's radius. In the context of Sino-US technological competition, the United States lags behind China in 5G and has started the research and development of 6G communication technology early, with satellite communications and low-Earth orbit resources as its important support. SpaceX relies on its commercial company status and its technical advantages of reusable rockets and multiple satellites in one rocket to continuously launch and deploy cheap satellites in large quantities at a low cost to an orbital altitude of 500 kilometers. The reason is to accelerate space exploration and provide global consumers with cheap and fast broadband Internet services, which is a "public welfare". However, SpaceX's Starlink satellite technology is not yet fully mature, which is itself a very irresponsible behavior.

SpaceX has obtained permission from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to put up to 12,000 Starlink satellites into orbit. Now SpaceX is continuing to seek permission from the FCC to launch 30,000 next-generation Starlink satellites into low-Earth orbit, and the two generations of satellites will total 42,000. These satellites will occupy most of the low-Earth orbit resources. In the near future, other countries may have to spend a lot of money to buy the low-Earth orbit resources occupied by SpaceX. The situation will be further exacerbated if the company refuses to sell its low-Earth orbit resources or refuses to disclose relevant information about changing its Starlink satellite orbit change plan under the pretext of protecting trade secrets. SpaceX's ambitious plan has even aroused opposition and criticism from NASA.

The third speculation is that the bizarre behavior of Starlink satellites has hidden military purposes. After all, Musk and SpaceX are unlikely to get returns in the civilian field through Starlink satellites in the short term. On the surface, Starlink is owned by Musk's private company SpaceX rather than the military, so this theory is unlikely to be true. However, various evidence and signs indicate that this "near collision" incident may be a special space experiment carried out by SpaceX in accordance with the orders of the US military.

Since humans entered the space age, the United States has regarded outer space as a strategic area that the United States must control. In July 2018, the simulated Starlink network successfully intercepted up to 350 intercontinental ballistic missile warheads, but near-Earth orbit hypersonic weapons are still expected to become a major breakthrough for China to tear apart the US military hegemony. In 2021, China took the lead in successfully developing hypersonic missiles that can operate in low-Earth orbit. The existing missile defense system of the US military cannot completely intercept it, which undoubtedly increases the fear of the United States. However, when the United States is worried that its military hegemony is seriously threatened, SpaceX's Starlink satellite program with strong military potential has opened up a new path. Some of SpaceX's launch sites are rented from the US Vandenberg Air Force Base, which allows some of the top-secret plans for Starlink launches to be exempted from review. The technical verification tests carried out by the Starlink program include related content for confidential interconnection between satellites and Air Force fighter jets. In 2019, SpaceX received funding from the US Air Force to test encrypted Internet services between Starlink satellites and military aircraft. In May 2020, the U.S. Army signed an agreement with SpaceX to test the use of Starlink broadband in data transmission across military networks. In October 2020, SpaceX won a $150 million contract to develop a military version of the Starlink program.

Judging from the results, the latest "Starlink" incident will further enhance China's space defense awareness, which may trigger a space race between Beijing and Washington for low-Earth orbit resources. In the past few years, China has been trying to integrate the early satellite constellation plans such as "Xingyun", "Hongyun" and "Hongyan", totaling about 600 satellites, into a state-owned satellite communication network. Although the scale of China's satellite constellation plan is far smaller than the Starlink plan in terms of current scale, China will naturally not be willing to be controlled by others in the future without taking any countermeasures in advance, let alone extremely important low-Earth orbit resources. The competitiveness of more private enterprises in China is significantly improving. Huawei has proposed its own satellite networking plan, and Deep Blue has made breakthroughs in rocket recovery technology, which will greatly reduce the cost of deploying satellites in China's low-Earth orbit and increase the speed of deployment. In 2022, China once again clearly proposed to build an integrated information infrastructure between heaven and earth to integrate existing space assets, mobile networks and future telecommunications.

In the face of fierce international competition for low-Earth orbit resources, clear institutional measures are needed to ensure that China, the United States, and private stakeholders can cooperate to achieve space security:

Countries should strengthen the management of global low-Earth orbit resources. A special UN agency should be established to revise the "first come, first served" principle of space resources. There should also be some restrictions on companies and institutions from arbitrarily occupying low-Earth orbit resources through unlimited large-scale satellite launches. Companies and their leaders who threaten the safety of astronauts should be included in the condemnation list and appropriate economic sanctions should be imposed.

Private space companies have an obligation to maintain the "space order". In February 2022, NASA expressed its concerns about SpaceX's proposal, such as the large-scale launch of satellites may increase the probability of collision between Starlink satellites and other space objects, and may also interfere with other satellites and ground science, but SpaceX has not taken any measures to improve the automatic collision avoidance mechanism of Starlink satellites and other related sustainable safety measures. In this regard, countries should strengthen common risk management strategies and even international regulatory measures to maintain the stable operation of space facilities, so as to urge and force private space companies to avoid these incidents and reshape the landscape of Sino-US space competition.

Space stakeholders should develop guidelines for international cooperation in outer space. These universal guidelines should refer to a set of operational instructions that spell out the obligations of a country's spacecraft when approaching another country's spacecraft, including timely prediction of collision risks, disclosure of necessary information and active communication with other space agencies.

Space exploration is a high-risk technological challenge. The United States' compliance with these rules will help promote China-U.S. cooperation in the field of space security. In the common space orbit, all parties should abide by the "traffic rules" and avoid running amok in space. Strengthening information disclosure and risk management and doing our best to enhance cooperation among all parties is not only in the interests of the two space powers, China and the United States, but also in the common long-term interests of all mankind.

The post Avoiding a collision course over space privilege first appeared on East Asia ForumWed, 01 Jun 2022 00:00:55 +0000

Author: Zhihui Zhang, Chinese Academy of Sciences

The core module of the China Space Station (CSS) was launched into space in April 2021. In July and October 2021, two SpaceX Starlink satellites suddenly dropped from a low earth orbit of 500km and 555km, respectively, into the CSS's path. The CSS made an emergency manoeuvre to avoid a collision. China condemned the United States at the United Nations, claiming the incident threatened the CSS and its astronauts.

There are two popular explanations as to why the incident occurred. One is that it was an accident, as SpaceX actively deorbits its satellites at the end of their lives. A Starlink satellite nearly collided with a European Space Agency's meteorological satellite in 2019 after testing its automatic deorbiting technology. The alternative explanation is that it was a deliberate act by the US military.

Whatever the reason, Washington should not use the pretext of 'corporate behavior' to shirk its responsibility for the actions of SpaceX as a signatory of the outer space treaty.

China's note to the UN is a reminder that the United States needs to be a responsible space power. In a submission to the UN in 2022, Washington claimed that the possibility of a collision was tiny because of Starlink's automatic evasion system — the efficacy of which has been questioned by China. Besides increasing the risk of spacecraft collision, the irresponsible behavior of Starlink satellites in low earth orbit also threatens the safety of astronauts from Japan, the United States, Russia and China.

Starlink is a plan to seize low earth orbit resources as one of its main objects. Relying on recyclable rockets and its ability to launch multiple satellites with one rocket, SpaceX has launched cheap satellites, whose technology has not fully matured, in low-cost batches justified by the 'public welfare' gained from having access to high-speed broadband internet. The US Federal Communications Commission has granted SpaceX permission to fly 12,000 Starlink satellites.

SpaceX plans to send up to 42,000 Starlink satellites into low earth orbit, most likely taking up over 80 per cent of low earth orbit resources. Other countries may have to spend a great deal of money to buy low earth orbit resources occupied by SpaceX in the future. The situation will deteriorate should the company refuse to sell its resources or refuse to disclose plans to change their satellites' orbits under the pretext of protecting trade secrets.

This bizarre incident may have hidden military purposes. Some launch sites are built in Vandenberg Air Force Base of the US, and the technical verification test is included in the content of confidential interconnection between satellites and Air Force fighters. In 2019, SpaceX received funding from the US air force to test the encrypted Internet services between the Starlink satellites and military aircraft. In May 2020, the US Army signed an agreement with SpaceX to test the use of Starlink broadband for cross military network data transmission. In October In 2020, SpaceX won a $150 million contract to develop a military version of the Starlink.

The latest Starlink incident will further enhance China's awareness of space defense — potentially triggering a space race between Beijing and Washington to seize low earth orbit resources. China has over the last few years been trying to integrate earlier satellite constellations (around 600 satellites) into a state-owned satellite communication network on a scale far smaller than the Starlink plan.

Private enterprises are improving their competitiveness, with Huawei's satellite networking plan and Deep Blue Aerospace's breakthrough in rocket recovery technology changing the industry. China proposed its own 'Space-Ground Integrated Information Network' in 2022 to integrate existing space assets, mobile networks and future telecommunications.

Facing fierce international competition for low earth orbit resources, institutional measures need to be taken to ensure that China, the United States and private stakeholders can cooperate to achieve space security.

Countries should strengthen the management of global low earth orbit resources. A specialized UN agency should be created to revise the previous 'first come, first served' principle for space resources. They should also partially restrict the arbitrary occupation of low earth orbit resources that occurs when enterprises and institutions launch massive satellites without constraints. Those responsible for threatening the safety of astronauts should be included in a list for condemnation — with provisions for appropriate economic sanctions.

Private space companies should be obligated to uphold the 'space order'. NASA outlined its concerns about the SpaceX proposal in February 2022, yet nothing was done to improve the satellite's faulty automatic collision avoidance mechanism. In response to this, countries should strengthen shared risk management strategies and maintain the stable operation of space facilities to help private space companies avoid these incidents and reshape the Chinese–US space competition.

Space stakeholders should formulate guidelines for international cooperation in outer space. These universal guidelines should refer to a set of operational instructions clarifying the obligations of one country's spacecraft when approaching another country's spacecraft — including the timely prediction of collision risk, disclosure of necessary information and active communication with other space agencies.

Following these regulations will help promote Chinese–US cooperation in space security. In common space orbit, all parties should abide by the 'traffic rules' and refrain from rampaging through space.

Zhang Zhihui is Associate Professor at the Institute for History of Natural Sciences at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

The post Avoiding a collision course over space privilege first appeared on East Asia Forum.

(Source: https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2022/06/01/avoiding-a-collision-course-over-space-privilege/)

About the Author

Zhang Zhihui, PhD, is currently an associate researcher at the Institute of the History of Natural Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences. In recent years, he has mainly studied the history of contemporary Chinese space science and the history of Sino-US space technology exchanges. He was funded by the Chinese Academy of Sciences or the China Scholarship Council to serve as a visiting scholar at California Institute of Technology, Colorado School of Mines, and Michigan Technological University, and visited the Department of Space History of the National Air and Space Museum of the United States with the support of the Smithsonian Institution. He has independently written two academic books, published five papers as the first author and corresponding author in SSCI source journals such as "Space Policy" and "History of Geo- and Space Science", and was invited to write four chapters in English books. He has published more than 50 papers in domestic core journals such as "Research on the History of Natural Sciences" and "Research on Contemporary Chinese History", and many book reviews in international first-class journals. Many academic papers have a good academic impact, four of which have been reprinted in full by "Xinhua Digest" and one by "Chinese Social Science Abstracts".

References

[1] https://www.unoosa.org/res/oosadoc/data/documents/2021/aac_105/aac_1051262_0_html/AAC105_1262E.pdf

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