In 5 years, 20 years...which workers will be threatened by big AI models?

What impact will large language models (LLMs) like GPT-4 have on human society now and in the future? A foreign blogger conducted a comprehensive analysis from economic, social and moral aspects at different time scales (within 5 years, 5-20 years, and more than 20 years).

Academic Headlines made simple edits without changing the main idea of ​​the original text.

Short term (1-5 years):

Productivity and Efficiency: LLMs can greatly improve productivity and efficiency by automating routine tasks, providing real-time language translation, and assisting with research and problem solving.

Personal Assistants: Advanced virtual assistants powered by LLMs can provide personalized services such as managing schedules, answering inquiries, and providing advice.

Creative Industries: The LLM can support the production of content, including writing articles, creating music and artwork, enabling new creative applications and platforms.

Education and Training: LLMs can be integrated into educational tools to provide a personalized learning experience and enhance accessibility to educational resources.

Job replacement: Automation of certain tasks may result in workers in certain industries being replaced by machines, necessitating reskilling of affected workers.

Medium term (5-20 years):

AI-driven innovation: LLMs are likely to be at the heart of many AI-driven innovations, driving the development of advanced technologies in areas such as healthcare, transportation, and energy.

Regulatory and ethical issues: As LLMs become more prevalent, their potential for misuse and bias may raise regulatory and ethical issues, requiring the development of guidelines and policies to ensure responsible AI deployment.

Economic inequality: LLMs may exacerbate economic inequality by increasing the gap between those who can access and benefit from AI technologies and those who cannot.

Collaboration between humans and AI: As LLMs become more capable, there will likely be more focus on developing human-AI collaborative systems that combine the strengths of both human and AI agents.

Long term (20+ years):

AI is everywhere: LLMs are likely to become an integral part of everyday life, embedded in a variety of devices and systems, and impact every aspect of human decision-making.

Continued job replacement and transformation: Widespread adoption of LLMs is likely to lead to further job replacement and transformation, potentially affecting more industries and skill levels.

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI): The development of LLMs may contribute to the eventual creation of AGI, which could have profound implications for society, including massive economic growth and potential risks.

Ethical and philosophical issues: As LLMs become more advanced, they are likely to raise complex ethical and philosophical questions concerning the nature of consciousness, intelligence, and the relationship between humans and artificial intelligence.

The actual impact of LLMs will depend on a variety of factors, including technological advances, resource availability, and societal response to their deployment. However, their impact is expected to be substantial and transformative across multiple sectors and timescales.

In the short term, which workers will be replaced?

In the short term (1-5 years), job replacement due to LLMs and related AI technologies is likely to be concentrated in tasks and roles that involve repetitive, routine, or easily automated. Some areas that may be affected include:

Customer Service: LLMs can be used to create chatbots and virtual assistants that can handle customer inquiries, manage complaints, and provide support, potentially reducing the need for human customer service.

Data Entry and Analysis: LLMs can efficiently process, analyze, and organize large amounts of data, automating tasks that would otherwise be performed by data entry personnel and analysts.

Content creation: LLMs can produce articles, marketing copy, and other types of written content, which may impact the job market for writers, journalists, and content creators.

Translation and transcription: LLMs can provide real-time translation and transcription services, which could revolutionize jobs in the translation and transcription industry.

Personal Assistants and Administration: Virtual assistants provided by LLMs can handle tasks such as managing schedules, organizing documents, and conducting research, which could lead to a reduced need for human personal assistants and administrative staff.

It is important to note that while job replacement may occur in these areas, LLMs and AI technologies may also create new job opportunities, such as roles focused on AI development, maintenance, and supervision, which may increase in demand. In addition, many existing jobs may also evolve to incorporate AI tools, creating opportunities for workers to improve their skills and adapt to the changing environment.

To minimize the negative impacts of job displacement, it is critical to invest in education, retraining, and other activities that can help workers affected by LLMs transition to new roles or industries.

In the medium term, which workers will be replaced?

In the medium term (5-20 years), job replacement caused by LLMs and related AI technologies is expected to extend beyond routine and repetitive tasks and may affect a wider range of industries and skill levels. Some areas that may be affected include:

Advanced analytics and decision making: As AI becomes more capable of handling complex analysis and decision-making processes, workers in fields such as finance, insurance, and management may be affected.

Healthcare: LLMs can assist in diagnosing disease, analyzing medical images, and making treatment recommendations, potentially reducing the need for certain medical professionals, such as radiologists and pathologists.

Legal: AI-powered legal research tools and contract analysis systems could impact jobs in the legal industry, particularly for paralegals and junior attorneys who perform document review and research tasks.

Education: As personalized learning systems and automated grading tools become more common, AI-enhanced education tools and platforms may lead to a reduced need for educators in some settings.

Creative Industries: As algorithms become better at generating high-quality creative work, AI-generated content is likely to impact jobs in creative fields such as advertising, graphic design, music, and filmmaking.

Manufacturing and Logistics: The manufacturing and logistics industries are increasingly adopting AI-driven robotics and automation systems.

Sales and Marketing: LLMs and AI systems will likely automate various aspects of sales and marketing, including lead generation, customer targeting, and content creation.

It is worth noting that while some jobs may be replaced, LLMs and AI technologies will also create new job opportunities during this period, urging workers to learn more skills. It is expected that the number of people engaged in roles related to AI development, ethics, and policy will grow significantly, and many jobs will be inseparable from AI tools and systems.

To cope with these changes, governments, businesses, and educational institutions should prioritize investments in workforce development and retraining to help workers adapt to the changing work environment. In addition, promoting innovation in AI-related industries and promoting the responsible and ethical development of AI technology are critical to mitigating potential negative impacts.

In the long run, which workers will be replaced?

In the long term (20+ years), job replacement due to LLMs and related AI technologies is likely to become more widespread, affecting different industries and skill levels. It is difficult to predict the exact trajectory of AI development and its societal impact, but some potential job replacement areas include:

Advanced Decision Making: AI systems may become capable of handling advanced strategic and executive decisions, potentially impacting management and executive roles across industries.

Research and development: AI-driven research tools could revolutionize fields such as medicine, materials science, and engineering, potentially reducing the need for human researchers in some areas.

Human-AI collaboration: As AI systems become more advanced, the lines between human and AI roles may blur, leading to the integration of AI into a wide range of jobs, which could alter or replace some traditional roles.

High-skilled occupations: AI technologies are likely to penetrate high-skilled industries such as medicine, law, and finance, automating tasks once thought to be the exclusive domain of human experts.

Entertainment and media: Advanced AI-generated content could impact jobs in fields such as journalism, filmmaking, and game development as algorithms become increasingly adept at producing high-quality content.

Personal services: Robots and devices powered by AI may be able to perform personal services such as cooking, cleaning, and elderly care.

While job replacement is one potential negative consequence of widespread AI adoption, it’s also important to consider the potential for job creation and transformation. New industries and roles may emerge that we can’t yet foresee, and many existing jobs may evolve to focus on uniquely human skills and attributes, such as creativity, empathy, and the ability to solve complex problems.

In order to prepare for the long-term impact of AI on the job market, it is necessary to invest in education and retraining to help workers adapt to the changing environment. In addition, policymakers, businesses, and educational institutions should prioritize promoting innovation in AI-related industries, promoting the responsible and ethical development of AI technology, and developing social safety nets to help workers achieve a smooth transition.