El Nino alert! Is the hottest year in history coming?

Recently, people in many areas have found that it has become hotter earlier this year than in previous years.

Taking this year as an example, as of June 5, more than half of my country's provincial capital cities have experienced high temperatures: Hangzhou's high temperature day occurred on April 17, nearly two months earlier than usual; Chongqing, Guangzhou, Chengdu and other places' first high temperature day occurred more than a month earlier than usual; Tianjin, Wuhan, Changsha, Haikou and other places' high temperature days were also 20 days or more earlier than the annual average.

Image source: China Meteorological Administration

At the same time, many countries around the world are also experiencing a high temperature "roast" test.

According to meteorological satellite monitoring, the high temperature weather process first appeared in the North my country Plain. From tomorrow to the weekend, the high temperature will continue to develop in the north and the range will continue to expand. The highest temperature in Xi'an, Zhengzhou, and Shijiazhuang will be 37-39℃ today and tomorrow, and the highest temperature in Turpan, Xinjiang, and other places will exceed 40℃ again.

How hot has it been in the Northern Hemisphere recently?

Recently, the UK Meteorological Office issued its first ever red alert for extreme high temperatures, and devastating wildfires broke out in many parts of southern Europe and North America.

Bangladesh has also been hit by a heat wave in recent days. The highest temperature recorded by the meteorological department reached 41°C. The Bangladesh education department has required primary schools across the country to suspend classes until June 8 to protect the health and safety of students.

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Before that, according to CCTV News, the temperature in most countries and regions in Southeast Asia has exceeded 40°C since April, breaking the historical record for the highest temperature in the same period.

Due to the impact of climate change in recent years, many glaciers around the world are melting at an alarming rate. A study published in the journal Science shows that about half to more than 80% of the world's glaciers are expected to completely melt and disappear by the end of this century.

For meteorological researchers, there is something more worrying than high temperatures - the latest data shows that the La Niña phenomenon that has lasted for nearly three years has ended, and the dreaded El Niño phenomenon is about to arrive .

What is El Nino?

El Nino, also known as the El Nino current, is an abnormal natural phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean associated with warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

It occurs on average every 2 to 7 years and usually lasts 9 to 12 months. El Nino affects the ocean currents and air currents in the Pacific Ocean, which in turn brings changes to the weather in various places. Floods may occur in areas that are usually dry and rainy, while drought may occur in some rainy areas.

Regarding the future development trend of El Nino, Michelle Leh, a climate expert at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States, said that this El Nino phenomenon appeared earlier and has great room for development. If a strong El Nino occurs, 2024 may become the hottest year on record. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States also pointed out in a recent report that this winter, the probability of a strong El Nino forming is 56%, and the probability of exceeding moderate intensity is 84%.

Zhou Bing, chief climate expert at the China Meteorological Administration, said in an interview recently that more and more data show that El Nino is pushing up global warming and is likely to bring a new peak in global warming. However, there are still uncertainties about whether next year will be the hottest year in meteorological records due to El Nino, which needs to be closely monitored.

What harm does extreme high temperature bring?

In extreme temperatures over 40°C, as the body heats up, the heart works harder to pump blood throughout the body, which can lead to low blood pressure. Excessive sweating can also lead to certain health risks, such as when the body loses fluids and salts, coupled with lowered blood pressure, it is easy to cause diseases such as heat exhaustion.

Image source: CCTV News

Extreme high temperatures that last too long will also affect agricultural production, cause wildfires, cause power shortages and serious economic losses.

How will El Niño affect my country’s climate?

Zhu Dingzhen said that from a statistical point of view, El Nino has four impacts on my country: first, there is a high probability of warm winter weather; second, in summer, there will be a distribution of hot north and cool south. He said that the phenomenon of flooding in the south and drought in the north often occurs in the years when El Nino develops, because the sea temperature in the northwest Pacific is a relatively cold cycle, so the possibility of typhoons in these areas will be reduced.

Perhaps, for a long time to come, global weather and climate fluctuations will become more severe, and extreme weather such as high temperatures and heat waves may become the norm. We not only need to be prepared to deal with high temperatures, droughts, and sudden heavy rainfall, but also remind our family and friends to pay closer attention to weather forecasts and extreme weather warnings, and learn the common sense of dealing with extreme weather.

Comprehensive sources: Xinhuanet, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing News, etc.