When the sun turns on "violent mode", the earth simply can't "bear it"...

Before going out

Checking the weather forecast is a habit for many people.

In fact, astronauts leave the cabin and enter the space environment

You also need to understand the space in advance.

Weather conditions

The cloudy, sunny, cold and warm weather we see and feel in our daily lives all occur in the troposphere. The space weather outside this troposphere, which exists between the earth and the sun, also has intense activities and is closely related to human survival and development.

Today we will study:

What is space weather?

What impacts will changes in space weather bring?

How to predict space weather?

Space Weather

The short-term and drastic changes in the Earth's space environment caused by activities such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections are called space weather.

There are two types of space weather: calm and explosive . The solar wind released by the calm sun is slow and changes slowly, the material density is relatively low, and there is no obvious explosive activity. Once the sun switches to explosive mode, the solar wind will change significantly, the speed will increase, the density will increase, and even the temperature will increase in a leap. The two "big moves" of flares and coronal mass ejections will be released at any time, and even the cooling time will be greatly shortened, and even the "violent mode" will be turned on, and multiple explosive activities will occur simultaneously or even continuously.

The above changes will have serious impacts and hazards on artificial satellites and space stations, communication and energy systems, and human health.

Impacts of space weather changes

With the increase in space activities and the popularization of related applications, space weather, the "sunny, rainy and snowy" weather in space, is increasingly affecting the normal operation of human society. At the same time, space weather can also cause destructive interference to power grids, thus having a huge impact on the infrastructure on which society depends.

1. The invisible killer of spacecraft

In May 1991, my country's Fengyun-1B satellite, which had been in space for only half a year, suddenly began to lose control and flip over. By the time the control personnel discovered the problem and took measures, the propellant on the satellite had already been sprayed out. The satellite, which had a design life of one year, had to be scrapped prematurely after only half a year.

What causes all this are high-energy particles from the sun and hot plasma near the earth. Under severe space weather conditions, they will appear very frequently and pose a threat to the safety of spacecraft.

The microelectronic components on spacecraft are most afraid of the higher energy part of high-energy particles. These high-energy particles can penetrate electronic components and cause data errors, circuit dysfunction or computer paralysis, causing satellite anomalies or failures, or even completely destroying the satellite.

High-energy particles with relatively low energy can cause charge accumulation in circuit boards, wires and other locations inside the spacecraft, hindering the normal operation of the spacecraft.

Although the energy of individual particles of thermal plasma is not as high as that of high-energy particles and cannot penetrate into the interior of a spacecraft, their accumulation on the surface of a spacecraft will also trigger surface charging and discharging effects, interfering with the normal operation of the spacecraft and even causing damage.

2. Sources of interference in satellite positioning and radio communications

In the area 60 to 1000 kilometers above the ground, there is an ionosphere composed of charged particles. Whether radio signals can pass through the ionosphere and the changes in signal parameters when passing through the ionosphere are all related to the properties of the ionosphere .

For example, shortwave signals can travel across continents by utilizing the ionosphere's reflection of radio signals in this frequency band; however, when the ground communicates with satellites, high-frequency signals that can penetrate the ionosphere must be used.

The properties of the ionosphere are mainly affected by solar activity . Once a flare occurs, the properties of the ionosphere will change immediately at the same time as the flare occurs. When a coronal mass ejection hits the earth, the geomagnetic storm caused will also induce changes in the properties of the ionosphere.

When ground equipment receives positioning signals transmitted by satellite positioning systems such as Beidou and GPS and calculates location information from them, it has already taken into account the general properties of the ionosphere.

Once the properties of the ionosphere change due to space weather, the actual changes in the positioning signal will differ from the preset conditions in the equipment, and the positioning accuracy of the positioning device will decrease .

For mobile phone positioning in daily life, the impact of space weather is not obvious because the positioning accuracy requirement is not high and the position of the mobile phone base station can be used for poor positioning. However, for high-precision field operations such as directional drilling and the new generation of aviation navigation and instrument landing systems, the reduction in positioning accuracy caused by ionospheric changes is enough to interfere with their normal work.

3. The man behind the destruction of the high-voltage power grid

The threat of geomagnetic storms to social life lies in the damage they may cause to the power grid. The drastic changes in the magnetic field caused by geomagnetic storms can generate strong geomagnetic induction currents in long-distance high-voltage transmission lines, causing unstable power supply or complete collapse of the power grid.

The geomagnetic storm in March 1989 paralyzed the power grid in Quebec, Canada, and millions of people spent the night without electricity in the cold. If a stronger solar storm hits and burns the large core transformers of the power grid, the power grid will be paralyzed for a long time.

This is because most of these large core transformers are specially customized products , and there is no ready-made shelf backup for replacement. Once damaged, it is impossible to find spare parts in a short time. Electricity is the basic condition for the operation of modern society. Once the power supply is lost, the operation of the entire society will come to a standstill.

Space Weather Forecast

Steps in making a space weather forecast:

1. Collect the latest observation data

A comprehensive analysis is conducted on data including solar images in various bands, solar X-ray flux, solar magnetic field, geomagnetic index, ionospheric status, etc., and then forecasts are made based on observational data and numerical simulations. Consultations are held with the chief forecaster to draw conclusions on space weather forecasts.

2. Produce various forecast products

There are many types of space weather forecast products, including daily, weekly, monthly, and annual reports. The daily space weather report summarizes the space weather conditions of the past 24 hours and forecasts the space weather status in the next 1-3 days, including the solar activity level, geomagnetic activity level, and ionosphere status. The weekly space weather report summarizes the space weather situation in the past 7 days and forecasts the space weather trend in the next 7 days. When important space weather events such as large flares and geomagnetic storms occur, products such as space weather current reports will also be released.

3. Public release

Space weather forecasts will be released through websites, faxes, apps, text messages, Weibo, WeChat public accounts, and other means to allow everyone to understand the latest space weather conditions.