A review of extreme weather in 2023! How will the weather evolve in 2024?

As 2023 is coming to an end, I will first review the major weather events that impressed me the most and some weather stories I have experienced, sorted by time and type. Because it is a personal impression, there will definitely be omissions. If you want a more comprehensive list, please wait for the official announcement of the top ten at the end of the year. Then at the end of the article, I will briefly talk about my personal views on the cold and warm winter this year and the possibility of extreme weather in 2024.

1. Weather forecast for 2023

1. Cold wave, blizzard, low temperature weather, talk about three processes:

1) The cold wave from January 11 to 15 was the first major cold wave this year. In addition to heavy snow and temperature drop, another notable feature was strong winds. The daily maximum wind speeds at 185 national meteorological stations broke the historical extreme value in January since the establishment of the stations. Another feature was that the heavy snow mainly occurred between the Yangtze River and the Huai River in the south, and the rain and snow phases were complex;

2) From April 20 to 23, there was a severe drop in temperature and heavy snow in the central region. The areas most affected were Shaanxi, Shanxi, and northern Henan. The most notable feature was that the rain and snow in Shanxi and Shaanxi were extremely extreme at this time point in late April.

3) We are currently experiencing a severe cold wave since mid-December, with heavy snow and extreme low temperatures in the north in the early stages, and continued rain and low temperatures in the south in the later stages.

2. Strong winds and sandstorms. This year is the year of the most sandstorms in the past 10 years. There are two processes:

1) From March 19 to 23, there was a strong sandstorm, not only in the plateaus of Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Shaanxi, but also in the North China Plain and even in Beijing;

2) On April 9-10, a strong sandstorm affected the area south of the Yangtze River. The PM10 in Shanghai reached 1,000 and in Beijing exceeded 3,000. Moreover, on the 12th, the sandstorm that had moved south to the Yangtze River and Huaihe River made a sudden comeback and flowed back to Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.

3. Typhoons and rainstorms. This year's typhoons and rainstorms have a notable feature: the typhoons landed long after they were dead in the wind sense (officially stopped), and the water vapor carried by their residual circulation caused extreme rainstorms. This situation is very common, but it is particularly significant this year. There are many processes, and here are just two:

1) "Dusurui" and heavy rainstorms in North China: "Dusurui" stopped near the border of Anhui and Jiangxi on the morning of July 29, and then caused historical heavy rainstorms in North China in the next three days, which had a major impact on Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and caused floods in the Haihe River Basin that had not been seen in many years. The heavy rainstorms in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei should be regarded as the most extreme weather event in 2023, and it is the kind of process that can be selected into the top ten "career" of forecasters;

2) "Hai Kui" and torrential rains in South China: In fact, "Hai Kui" weakened to a tropical depression level that did not reach the intensity of the code as soon as it made landfall at the border of Guangdong and Fujian on the morning of September 5. It was not declassified until the morning of the 6th when it was too weak. However, it then moved westwards and brought torrential rains to the coastal areas of South China. The impact did not completely end in Guangxi until the 12th. The greatest impact was the torrential rains in the Pearl River Delta, especially in Hong Kong, which broke various rainfall records and caused casualties.

4. Severe convection. There are actually many severe convective weather events this year. Here I will only talk about one process that I remember as the least unexpected and most unexpected at the same time, which caused heavy losses: the strong tornado in Jiangsu on September 19

On September 19, three strong tornadoes appeared in Jiangsu, causing considerable casualties. It was not surprising, as the weather conditions at the time were favorable for the occurrence of tornadoes, and meteorological stations at all levels mentioned the possibility of tornadoes in various forecasts and warnings; it was surprising, as it was the first time in meteorological statistics that such a strong tornado appeared in Jiangsu in autumn.

5. High temperature and extreme warmth. High temperature and extreme warmth are not the same concept. High temperature refers to high temperature in an absolute sense, while extreme warmth refers to high temperature in a relative sense compared to the same period in history. The former sometimes includes the latter, but the latter does not necessarily include the former. Let's talk about the two processes:

1) In late June and early July, a large area of ​​high temperature above 40°C, mainly in North China, was a high temperature + extreme warm event;

2) The extreme warming event in the north in late October and early November broke a series of daily maximum temperature records for the same period and was a non-high temperature extreme warm event.

6. Non-heavy rainfall accumulation type: significant heavy rain or continuous rain. This kind of weather is not strong, but the impact is not small. In addition, there are many other weather conditions that have a significant impact on agriculture. Here I will only mention two similar ones:

1) From late May to early June, the summer wheat harvest area was mostly cloudy and rainy, which was called "rotten field rain", which mainly had a serious impact on the central China region, especially Henan;

2) From mid-September to early October, there was a lot of rain in Shaanxi, Henan and Hubei. The continuous rain for a month had a negative impact on the autumn harvest in these areas. Henan remained one of the most affected areas.

7. Meteorological services for major national events. Meteorological support for major events is one of the most important tasks of the Meteorological Bureau, such as the 70th anniversary of the National Day and the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China. This year, there are two major events:

1) Chengdu Universiade - From late July to early August, there was frequent local heat thunderstorms, which made forecasting extremely difficult. The forecast was generally okay, but the time and space details of the forecast were repeatedly slapped in the face. Fortunately, the opening ceremony showed "Universiade blue", but in fact, it was rainy in the surrounding area and before and after that day. I participated in this support mission almost throughout the whole process;

2) Hangzhou Asian Games - September to October, the background is cloudy and rainy. Hangzhou is in an awkward situation of turning the boundary in time and space. It is located at the northern edge of the rain belt in space, and it is in a period of continuous cloudy and rainy weather turning into cloudy days without rain. It is certain that rain will fall on cloudy days, but it may not fall, and it may not fall heavily. The conclusion needs to be one of the two choices of whether it will rain or not, which is also a great challenge. I only participated in this task briefly on the opening day.

2. Will this winter be cold or warm? Will extreme weather become the norm in 2024?

1. Will this winter be a warm winter or a cold winter?

Winters are different across the country, with huge differences between north and south. As a national evaluation, we take the average of observation stations across the country, taking the average of the three months from December to February. This winter has just begun. The staged and regional nature of a cold wave weather process is not in the same dimension as the long-term national average forecast of "likely warm winter", so there is naturally no contradiction.

This winter has just begun, and the result of a cold or warm winter will not be known until March next year. The important thing is: no matter whether it is a cold winter or a warm winter, it is still winter, and there will definitely be cold waves and more than one. And between cold waves, there will definitely be warming, and it is possible that the temperature will warm up to break the record for the same period.

2. What will happen in 2024? Will extreme weather become the norm?

This question is very flexible, depending on the definition of extreme weather and normal weather, which is a matter of opinion. Even in scientific research, different scholars may use different standards, and the conclusions may not be the same. The definition in the public's cognition is based on their own feelings and experiences, so it is naturally more divergent.

My opinion is that high temperatures, heavy rains, droughts, typhoons, severe convection, cold waves, sandstorms, heavy fog and other weather conditions will not be missing in 2024.

These extreme weather conditions that everyone often talks about actually happen a lot every year, which is determined by my country's vast area, complex geography, diverse climate, and monsoon climate. These weather conditions always have some characteristics of phases in time, regional or local in space, and extreme in intensity. Each type has its own characteristics, and it is the same every year. It's just that some years have more of this type of weather and less of that type, and some years have the opposite. This is certain.

As for whether the total number and extremes will increase, the current academic consensus is that in the context of global warming, it is very likely in the long run, but not necessarily on a year-to-year basis. It will definitely be a spiral increase. Whether there will be more in 2024 than in 2023 is uncertain.

In addition, changes in the richness of observational data and the amount of information the public receives actually affect this judgment, so a small number of scholars hold a cautious and skeptical attitude, which is reasonable.