Should I run through the airport or arrive 2 hours early? Economist: Arriving early is a waste of life

Today is the first day of the May Day holiday. I believe many people are on their way home or traveling.

Arrive at the airport 3 hours early, pass through security check leisurely, and then sit at the boarding gate 1 hour early, watching passengers who have heard the last boarding reminder rush past you. Is this feeling of "taking control of your life in your own hands" great? I have to remind you: if you have never missed a flight, then you may have wasted too much time at the airport.

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It sounds counterintuitive: Why would anyone risk missing their flight? But there is a logic to it.

How early is the best time to arrive at the airport?

This idea was first proposed by Nobel Prize-winning economist George Stigler and now has been elaborated by mathematics professor Jordan Ellenberg in his book How to Get Right: The Power of Mathematical Thinking.

Ellenberg points out that the question of when to get to the airport comes down to a question of “utility,” a concept often used in economics to measure the benefits and costs of doing something for someone. Utilities can be positive or negative: good things, like puppies and cake, are positive for most people, while bad things, like illness or jury duty, are negative.

For some people, not spending a lot of time at the airport is a positive benefit. At the same time, not missing your flight is also a positive benefit. Therefore, Ellenberg points out that you should go to the airport at the time that minimizes both the time you spend at the airport and the chance that you will miss your flight.

Time can really be “calculated”!

Ellenberg expressed this concept mathematically. Assuming that utility is represented by "U", arriving at the airport 2 hours early means wasting 2 hours at the airport, so 2U is subtracted. But missing the flight means you have to spend more time waiting for the next flight at the airport. Saving 1 hour may end up spending 6 more hours, so 6U needs to be subtracted for missing the flight. Ellenberg used this method to express 3 different situations with formulas:

Scenario 1: Arrive 2 hours before flight departure, 2% chance of missing the flight;

Scenario 2: Arrive 1.5 hours before flight departure, 5% chance of missing the flight;

Scenario 3: Arriving 1 hour before departure, 15% chance of missing the flight.

Using U to measure time, you can calculate which scenario brings you the most utility. Scenario 1, arriving 2 hours before the flight takes off, is equivalent to waiting at the airport for 2 hours, so the utility is "-2U", but at the same time, the probability of missing the flight must be taken into account (-6Ud×2%=-0.12U). Adding it up, the utility of scenario 1 is "-2.12U". Using the same method, the utilities of scenarios 2 and 3 are "-1.8U" and "-1.9U" respectively. In summary, from a mathematical point of view, arriving 1.5 hours before the flight takes off is the most appropriate.

Of course, the above example equates U to 1 hour. Maybe you are more intolerant than the average person, and even one extra minute at the airport kills you , so 60 seconds is 10U for you. Or maybe your biggest worry is missing your flight, and the thought of missing your flight is too much to even think about, so missing your flight is 50U for you. These changes will affect the final calculated value and change the best time for you to arrive at the airport.

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Can you not waste time?

And not miss the flight?

“The optimal time is always somewhere in between the two extremes,” Ellenberg explained. “That means that when you arrive at the airport at the optimal time, the chance of missing your flight is not zero.”

The probability is not zero, which means that if you take enough flights, one day you will miss a flight. If you fly frequently for business and never miss a flight, then you are probably wasting too much time in the airport - and your utility is gone along with that time.

In theory, this makes sense, but it does not answer the question of when to go to the airport to minimize the chance of missing the flight and wasting time. In this regard, the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) has not issued any formal recommendations - it says that there are many factors that affect the time passengers stay at the airport, but arriving at the airport 2 hours early has become a rule of thumb for many frequent travelers.

Each airline has its own recommendations — Delta has a handbook for passengers that lists the minimum time to arrive at the airport for the most common domestic flights ; United and American both offer similar services to passengers.

For those who are determined to try their luck, you can track security wait times at various airports . To do this, you must apply for the TSA's pre-registration program (which allows travelers who have undergone background checks and provided fingerprints to view the use of special security runways) or download the TSA's mobile app, which allows users to enter their own wait times at the airport, essentially creating a database of waiting times.

Peak time, go earlier

There's another way to more specifically calculate whether you'll be late for your flight: look at the time your flight leaves, and then see if the airport is particularly busy during that time. If you're traveling outside of "peak" times, there's a good chance the airport will be less busy, which means you can arrive later and not get stuck in security and boarding lines.

So, when is "peak" time at the airport?

LAX defines peak hours as the time when international flights arrive, which is between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., and 8 p.m. and 11 p.m. each day.

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Continental Airlines recommends arriving early for flights departing on Friday or Sunday evenings and Monday mornings, between 6:30 a.m. and 9:30 a.m., 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., and between 3:30 p.m. and 7:30 p.m.

Therefore, if your flight leaves at 3 pm on Tuesday, you'd better arrive at the airport around 2 pm after the peak has passed, rather than arriving at the airport 2 hours early and being stuck in a long line.

Maybe you would rather spend time at the airport

That said, if you're at one of two ends of Ellenberg's spectrum -- either you have plenty of time on your hands, or you've already missed your flight -- these airports might be the best for you.

Singapore's Changi Airport has an airport butterfly garden, an orchid garden with koi fish, and open-air cactus and sunflower gardens. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol in the Netherlands opened a library for passengers in 2010. Japan's Nagoya Chubu Airport has an airport hot spring, with steaming hot pools surrounded by large floor-to-ceiling windows, allowing sunlight to shine in obliquely, so passengers can watch planes take off and land while soaking.

If You've Never Missed a Flight, You're Probably Wasting Your Time

But in the end, I still have to remind everyone that there is a concentrated travel period during the "May Day" period, and travel time is easily affected by traffic jams and other reasons. Everyone should leave enough time for travel during this period.

Planning and production

Source: Guokr (ID: Guokr42)

By Natasha Geiling

Editor: Wang Mengru

Proofread by Xu Lai and Lin Lin