Have you ever been deceived by "survivor bias"?

Survivorship bias in all areas of life

Abound

"Other people's children" often become childhood nightmares

Children's failure stories

But it is often not mentioned

I always thought I was taught by a teacher.

The worst student

It wasn’t until graduation that I realized that every class was like this.

Why are only children called picky eaters?

Aren’t adults ever picky about food?

These examples

This is a manifestation of "survivor bias"

So what exactly is survivor bias?

What is survivor bias

Survivorship bias, also known as survivor bias, refers to the fact that people can only see the results of a certain screening, but are not aware of the screening process, so they may ignore the key information that has been screened out - "silent data". For example, many people in life see that some people have not studied but still make a lot of money, and they come to the conclusion that "studying is useless", but ignore the people who have not studied and are doing nothing.

The cause of survivor bias is the limitation of information source channels. When samples that have undergone non-specific screening become the research focus, the key information hidden behind the ignored samples will be selectively forgotten by the researchers.

1. Strengthening of special cases

People have different levels of rationality, but in many situations, some people tend to temporarily lose their rationality because they amplify the risk avoidance mechanism, just like a cow being pulled by a rope, unknowingly falling into the trap of "survivor bias". The emphasis on those special cases makes people ignore those "silent valid data".

2. Those who “failed to survive” are in a vulnerable position

"Failed survivors" can be understood as a group of people that we often ignore when we draw a conclusion or form an idea. For example, when we draw the conclusion that "studying is useless", people who have been mediocre all their lives due to low education are the people we ignore. They are "failed survivors". Because they did not succeed in the end, they are not valued by most people, and their experience cannot affect our conclusion that "studying is useless", so we fall into the fallacy of "survivor bias". "Failed survivors" cannot make effective voices due to their weak social status, which ultimately leads to "survivor bias".

3. Conservative mentality

Only through "survivor bias" can conservatives confirm the rationality of the status quo, and then achieve the goal of denying change. For example, when people who don't want to exercise to lose weight see many successful cases of dieting, they will rush to conclude that "dieting is effective, and I don't need to exercise to lose weight" because they want to confirm the rationality of dieting and don't want to make the change of exercising to lose weight.

The dangers of survivorship bias

We must clearly recognize the harm of "survivor bias" so that we can better avoid mistakes and make clearer decisions.

1. The Trap of Taking Advantage of the Situation

In life, it is easy for us to regard ourselves as survivors, and feel that we are the only lucky ones, and everything will happen to us. However, if we do not pay attention to the psychology of "survivor bias", it will be easy to develop the habit of taking shortcuts in the long run. The success of taking shortcuts is often a low-probability event, and it is accompanied by great risks. For example, there are very few people who "turn over a new leaf" by scratching lottery tickets, but some people are still addicted to it; some people spend a lot of effort to create eye-catching jokes on the Internet, hoping to become famous overnight like others, and thus reach the peak of their lives. Various examples in life clearly reveal a truth: whether it is big or small, if you always try to take shortcuts, it may save some time and energy on the surface, but it will often consume more energy and money in the end.

2. The Abyss of Wrong Decision-Making

Our brains have the ability to think rationally, but when we are too eager to be superior, we can easily lose our rationality, so much so that we don’t realize that we are gradually falling into the vortex of “survivor bias”. Once we fall into it, we will unconsciously use those successful cases to cover up those silent losers. This bias may greatly magnify the probability of success by ten, a hundred or even a thousand times, but it makes us ignore many important factors.

3. The dilemma of confusion and helplessness

People who fall into the "survivor bias" mentality generally believe that their judgment is correct, but the final result is not satisfactory, and even causes huge losses. Over time, they will become more and more at a loss and confused, not knowing what is right, which will cause great harm to their work and study development. Without a clear goal, many people will rush around like headless flies, not only bruised and battered, but also lose the passion to struggle.

“Survivor bias” reminds us:

Behind success lies an unseen failure, and behind beautiful success lies an unknown hardship and tears. In the face of "survivor bias", we must always be vigilant and avoid such fallacies. We also need to develop a comprehensive perspective, value and learn from the lessons of failure, so that we can gain deeper wisdom and insight in personal growth and decision-making. Accidental success is often glorified into a legend, and the lessons of failure are also worth pondering. Let us observe the world with a more objective eye, avoid falling into "survivor bias", and make more prudent choices!

Author: Lai Junli

Unit: Quanzhou Normal University