Nokia's comeback is not impossible

Nokia recently released its third quarter financial report, which exceeded analysts' expectations and performed well. Nokia's CFO Timo Ihamuotila said at a subsequent meeting: "We will of course seriously evaluate the Nokia brand to maximize its brand value. We realize that Nokia is the most valuable brand in the mobile phone and mobile field in terms of popularity." Most people believe that this statement reflects Nokia's preparation to return to the consumer market and regain its smartphone business. So will Nokia return to the consumer market and make a comeback? I personally think that this possibility is very high. Of course, if Nokia wants to return to the consumer market, what kind of world will Nokia have to face? Does Nokia have the capital to return to the world? Let's take a look at my shallow analysis.

1. Current overall situation of smartphones

1. The mobile operating system world is divided into three parts: Today, the mobile operating system world is divided into three parts, Android and Apple are on par with each other, and Microsoft is weak; Apple's ecosystem is the most prosperous. Although its market share is not as good as Android, it has now developed to iOS8. After many generations, the country is in danger and the people are rich. Android has many disciples and a strong military force. It has developed to 5.0 Lollipop, which is fierce and has many feet on two boats. However, it also faces serious fragmentation and prominent security issues. For this reason, Google has also begun to tighten its control over Android. As a latecomer, Microsoft has been constantly pursuing, and its system-level experience and ecosystem are constantly improving. In front of the two giants, although it has gathered more than 50 partners in the past two years, using low-end to impact sales, hoping to expand its territory, it can also be safe in a corner. However, in the upcoming Win10 operating system, whether it can bridge the ecological gap by unifying the Microsoft arena is still worth looking forward to.

2. Manufacturers’ performance: Among all manufacturers, Apple and Samsung are undoubtedly the strongest, Microsoft is a potential formidable rival, and domestic manufacturers are the most eye-catching. LG is rising significantly, and the competition in the mobile phone industry is more intense than ever before.

With its outstanding design, strong ecosystem and powerful fan base, each generation of Apple products can create a real sales miracle, but it cannot be denied that Apple's innovation ability is not as good as before. It is now more defensive than pioneering. In the trade-off between pursuing perfection and maximizing commercial interests, it has chosen the latter, grabbing huge profits with a toothpaste-squeezing upgrade model, but its current dominance can still be maintained for a period of time. All these performances seem to have the back of the heyday of Nokia.

Samsung has been shining in recent years and has become Apple's most formidable rival, but it has been repeatedly criticized for its mediocre industrial design and lack of innovative highlights. This year it seems to be entering a mid-life crisis and has shown a downward trend. Its entire product line is facing global stranglehold and is fraught with crises. However, it still has the advantage of a complete industrial chain and strong financial support, and its competitiveness is still strong.

As a new recruit, Microsoft has acquired the best parts of Nokia's mobile phone and service departments. Although there are no new products launched yet, it is foreseeable that Nokia's advantages in Lumia will continue to be inherited. With the upcoming unification of the Win10 operating system, the WP experience will be further improved and the ecosystem will be further prosperous. In addition, Microsoft has a lot of money. If Microsoft is sincere in making a big move in the mobile market, it will be a potential formidable opponent.

In recent years, domestically made use of the Internet, carried feelings, opened their mouths, sold futures, and shouted that they would catch up with the UK and the US in three years, but imitated the designs of Apple, Nokia, etc., and their performance was also extremely eye-catching. Xiaomi, Meizu, Huawei, Hammer, OPPO/VIVO are all topic-making machines, and many brands have sprung up one after another. However, from the depreciation of Lao Luo's feelings to the call of Xiaomi fans for 1799, we can still find that such a vigorous and vigorous development is only in the low-end market in China; domestically made products have basically no chance in the high-end market; and in the international market, except for Huawei, which is slightly better, the rest have repeatedly hit the wall, and it is still impossible to expand the territory. The real core competitiveness of domestically made products is not innovation but low prices. But can the prosperity brought by low prices last? I think it can't, so I think the bubble reshuffle period of domestically made products is coming soon.

Among the remaining well-known international brands, Sony is no longer doing well, although the performance of Ham has improved slightly, it is also plagued by serious problems, and Motorola has been committed to Lenovo. However, looking at the mobile phone industry, it is a fact that the innovation ability is no longer as good as before, and the industry bottleneck seems to have arrived. At this time, strong competitors are needed to promote the development of the industry, and the market is also calling for innovations that can truly change the world again.

2. Nokia's own analysis

(I) Disadvantages:

1. Brand window period: After Nokia's deal with Microsoft, Microsoft changed its brand name to Microsoft Lumia due to contractual restrictions. According to the contract, Nokia could not enter the consumer market in the smartphone market before 2016, leaving a brand window period of more than one year. This one-year window period provides competitors with opportunities to gain more market share.

2. Decline in supply chain control capability: In today’s globalized resource allocation and refined division of labor, the management and control of the supply chain will largely determine the success or failure of a mobile phone. Proper human resource allocation will directly affect corporate costs. In terms of the current market supply chain control capability, the strongest are Apple and Samsung. However, Nokia has been working in the mobile phone industry for many years, and its supply chain integration capability should be beyond doubt, but its supply chain control capability can no longer gain a strong position.

3. Talent loss: In the deal with Microsoft, most of Nokia's top talents in the mobile phone and service departments went to Microsoft. After losing these top talents, Nokia will have certain talent vacancies. How to fill these vacancies and create a perfectly coordinated team again is also a challenge.

(II) Advantages:

1. Nokia's strong patent accumulation and pioneering spirit in the field of design: Nokia has a strong patent portfolio, which will be a strong guarantee for Nokia's return. Nokia also has the gene of daring to change and the spirit of innovation. When everyone looked around and copied and imitated the iPhone, Nokia was able to launch the Nokia N9 on its own, making people realize that the appearance design of mobile phones is not limited to the iPhone, and the design can be so pleasing to the eye that it can compete with Apple. Nokia's unique technology will increase its competitiveness, such as Nokia's unique PureView camera technology, professional photography, HERE maps, city kaleidoscopes, etc., as well as graphene, flexible screens and other technologies under research. We can still find that Nokia's innovation ability in the consumer field has not weakened at all.

2. Sufficient cash flow support: Nokia has obtained sufficient cash flow in the transaction with Microsoft, plus the benefits of the three major businesses. Sufficient cash flow can provide strong support for the research and development and promotion of consumer products and the formation of related talents. So although Nokia lost many senior talents after the transaction with Microsoft, we can also believe that Nokia still has sufficient talent reserves and can attract the top talents to join Nokia, and can once again assemble a strong R&D team, design team and sales team, etc.

3. Nokia's brand value and fan support: Nokia's brand still has extremely high value. Nokia Technology's people-oriented corporate philosophy, its unremitting pursuit of product quality, its sophisticated design that is on par with Apple's, its unique camera advantages, and the high quality, practicality, reliability, pioneering and innovation it represents are still deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Nokia has accumulated a large number of high-quality fans in the market.

Some people may ask: In such a fiercely competitive mobile phone market, will the market still accept Nokia after two years of absence? But I think the market will not reject true innovators. Only if Nokia can deliver a truly innovative answer in 2016, the market will naturally accept it with joy. So I personally think that the possibility of Nokia returning to the consumer market is very high.

Postscript: As a Nokia fan, I naturally hope that he can make a comeback and bring us more innovations and more surprises. YY: I hope that he can return as the N9 design director to develop the next amazing product.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.