A detailed account of several shortcomings in Alibaba's future development

Since 2014, the reach of the Alibaba empire has been further extended. Its acquisition layout has expanded from traditional offline chains to entertainment finance, from technology big data layout to sports, from maps and social media, finance and many other aspects. Therefore, some people say that Alibaba is buying the whole world. Alibaba will also continue to expand the boundaries of its empire, and will infinitely expand the stall of Alibaba's e-commerce ecosystem through continuous investment, acquisitions and mergers. After Alibaba went public, its current market value has exceeded 250 billion US dollars. In the eyes of the outside world, Alibaba is already a giant e-commerce empire that is difficult to subvert and shake, but in fact, we see that with the penetration of mobile Internet, the cake of e-commerce is becoming bigger and bigger, and the formats and models have unlimited possibilities. Even a huge company like Alibaba can hardly avoid having its cake eaten away. Behind the glory of Alibaba, in my opinion, the hidden danger of Alibaba in the future lies in its inherent shortcomings that cannot be avoided.

Taobao and Tmall have uneven brands, and small and medium-sized sellers face the risk of leaving the market

Alibaba's profit model comes from charging commissions or promotion fees to sellers or merchants. Merchants can start a store on Alibaba for free. In order to attract traffic and users, Alibaba can import traffic for merchants, provide advertising displays and entrances such as through trains, technical support and promotion and other value-added services, and Alibaba charges commissions and rents from merchants. In essence, Alibaba is engaged in online commercial real estate. From another perspective, Alibaba does not sell goods, but only provides a platform to merchants, and merchants need to pay fees. This is a model of making money out of nothing, but this model works because of the absorption power of the Alibaba platform.

On the other hand, we know that Alibaba has grasped the opportunity of China's economic development and timely shifted its business focus to more profitable business models that can better represent future trends, such as from B2B to Taobao and then to Tmall. In this way, the former will face marginalization. Taobao transfused blood to Tmall, enriching Tmall, but hurting the small and medium-sized sellers in Taobao C stores. It will also cause an imbalance in the brands and resources of Taobao and Tmall, the two core platforms of Alibaba. In the long run, this is not a healthy ecological model. Small and medium-sized sellers in Taobao C stores once laid the foundation of Alibaba, and then transfused blood to Tmall, making this "dessert" a new core. As early as 2013, media data pointed out that 80% of Taobao merchants were not profitable, and thousands of merchants closed down every day. The public relations department of Alibaba Group also denied this statement, but it is an indisputable fact that Taobao has gradually been marginalized. The tripartite relationship between Taobao small and medium-sized sellers, Tmall large sellers and Alibaba itself will also lead to an imbalance in the interest structure of the industrial chain within the Alibaba system due to interests. If the sense of loss among Taobao C-store sellers deepens, it will be difficult to ensure that a large number of small and medium-sized sellers will not move to other e-commerce platforms for profit. This is a hidden crisis for Alibaba.

Social e-commerce is a shortcoming, but also a problem

At present, although Tencent's mobile social e-commerce does not pose a threat to Alibaba for the time being, in the era of mobile Internet, Alibaba needs a social super APP similar to WeChat. Because if it has a social portal to directly connect with a large number of users, it can be effectively connected with Alibaba's e-commerce platform, generating a huge advantage integration effect. Therefore, Jack Ma has always been concerned about mobile social networking. After the failure of Laiwang last year, he launched DingTalk in a low-key manner this year, and even added a chat function to Alipay not long ago. It can be seen that mobile social networking has become a concern for Jack Ma.

Because no matter what, WeChat, which has a huge number of active users, is always a major variable and hidden danger. The existence of WeChat makes Alibaba's future face various uncertainties. For example, few people would have thought that WeChat, which has always focused on user experience, would actually sell information flow ads in Moments. Of course, this is not favored by the industry. But what we can see is that WeChat's direction, strategy, entrance, profit model, and product planning are always being adjusted. Today, it can sell information flow ads in Moments, and tomorrow, it may also place merchant ads in Moments as shopping entrances. The existence of the WeChat entrance may also accept the platform transfer of small and medium-sized merchants on Taobao in the future. It can be seen that whether it is Weidian or Baidu Direct Number, they are all attempts to establish a new path based on merchant settlement and interception of user consumption in the vertical field of the mobile terminal. Today, mobile e-commerce is becoming a trend. Alibaba, which lacks a mobile super entrance, appears passive and stable, and various unstable factors in the outside world will provoke Alibaba's nerves at any time. These are all threatening factors for Alibaba.

The crisis of mobile payment always exists

In 2014, Alibaba's sales hit a new high during the Double 11 Shopping Festival. After going public, Alibaba's market value exceeded 200 billion US dollars, which was a great success. But can this cover up Alibaba's crisis? Have the crises and hidden dangers of Alibaba's mobile payment been eliminated? This topic naturally goes back to the craze of WeChat red envelopes during the Spring Festival in 2014. Jack Ma called WeChat red envelopes "Pearl Harbor attack" at that time. The entire Alibaba executives were beating their hearts for WeChat red envelopes. Although Laiwang, which was launched to block WeChat, has fallen into disrepair and can be ignored, Jack Ma is obviously calmer and believes that WeChat is a good hand, but it has been played badly.

But in fact, we need to look at it from another angle. Jack Ma's calmness does not mean that the threat from the mobile terminal has been eliminated. WeChat red envelopes still exist and are gradually cultivating user habits, and WeChat payment is also progressing slowly. But at present, these small crises are obviously unlikely to impact Ali's payment core - Alipay. But we also see that based on the need for mobile payment penetration, Ali's key mobile product Taodiandian has been vigorously promoted since its launch in 2013, but the market recognition and user accumulation of this product are not as expected. Behind Ali's glory this year is not Ali's disruptive product innovation on the mobile terminal in 2014 or the great leap forward of its mobile terminal product matrix, but the potential energy release of Ali's own platform after its listing and the brand highlight brought by the huge sales volume of Double Eleven. This is an advantage that Ali has accumulated for many years, which has brought Ali aura and confidence, but it does not mean that Ali's original crisis has been eliminated. Instead of filling the gaps in the existing mobile terminal crisis, it is calm, which will create an overly conceited corporate character. It is hard to say that it will not lose sensitivity to greater crises in the future.

Hidden dangers of the rise of vertical e-commerce on mobile terminals

In addition to WeChat, another major hidden danger for Alibaba is the rise of personalized e-commerce platforms in the vertical field of mobile terminals. Alibaba's e-commerce empire is different from Baidu's search empire and Tencent's social empire. Because the cake of e-commerce involves all aspects of the national economy, the plate is too big and there are too many subdivided vertical fields. E-commerce models in various subdivided vertical fields can eat a little from it. JD.com can share 3C digital products, Vipshop can eat the cake in the field of famous brand flash sales, Jumei Youpin can eat the vertical field of women's cosmetics, and even Xiaomi's e-commerce model will gradually eat a part of e-commerce user resources. In addition, in the subdivided fields of other traditional industries, various emerging e-commerce models similar to Wanda e-commerce may emerge. Of course, some people will say that Alibaba is a full-category e-commerce platform model, which is an ecosystem, and there is no direct and equal competition relationship with other e-commerce platforms such as JD.com, Vipshop, and Wanda e-commerce. But the key to the problem is that various e-commerce models can divert user resources and retention time points. Users go to other platforms to shop and consume, which relatively reduces Alibaba's occupation of user resources and time. And with the interaction between people and mobile devices and the diversification of scenarios in the future, new product forms and business models may emerge.

The uncertainty of the future of mobile terminals is due to the changes in shopping habits and business models on mobile terminals. Because Alibaba's e-commerce layout on mobile terminals is obviously not as hard to shake as Alibaba's PC terminals, at present, although the user stickiness of mobile Alipay, mobile Tmall and mobile Taobao is very large, they cannot occupy the user's time on mobile terminals and retain them for a long time. Alibaba's products on mobile terminals are more of a transfer of PC terminal resources. Alibaba's profit model on PC terminals, including transaction fees, through trains and diamond exhibitions, have all been transferred to mobile terminals. Therefore, Alibaba's mobile terminal revenue still comes from high-profit transaction fees and advertising fees such as "real estate + advertising".

It can be seen that although Alibaba's GMV in the third quarter has exceeded 30%, it is not as fast as the growth rate of Amazon and eBay, whose independent mobile visits have exceeded 50%. On the other hand, Alibaba's mobile product form and business model are not innovative enough compared to the PC side, and cannot help PC merchants have better imagination and opportunities to overtake on the mobile side, so it cannot support Alibaba's grand strategy in the future. In the era of mobile Internet, Alibaba still relies on the influence of the platform to make profits, rather than relying on innovative technology and product capabilities. Jack Ma believes that mobile is the future, but the user habits, interactions between people and mobile devices, scenarios, and shopping habits of mobile terminals are changing in the future. Product forms and business models also need to change in time to meet future user needs. Alibaba's layout involves all aspects, and how to integrate these resources to form cohesion is also testing Alibaba's wisdom. From this point of view, Alibaba's walls are not impenetrable, but there are many uncertainties.

Once a person succeeds, he will be conceited. Of course, Jack Ma is successful, and in the eyes of the outside world, everything he says is right. But the uncertainty in the future lies in how the trend of mobile terminals will change. Obviously, what Alibaba has shown on the mobile terminal is more about the import of users, traffic and resources from the PC terminal, and the entrance to the mobile terminal is scattered. It is difficult to say whether these inherent shortcomings will become stumbling blocks on Alibaba's road to progress, and whether many competitors will seize Alibaba's shortcomings and attack Alibaba's neck in the future? If Jack Ma can examine Alibaba's own weaknesses with a humble heart and actively and more effectively lay out prevention, it will be more beneficial to Alibaba's future.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.