Comment: Is it reliable for e-commerce companies to use drones to deliver goods?

At the CES exhibition held in Las Vegas in January, almost half of the 14 drone exhibitors were from China. Drones produced by Shenzhen-based DJI Innovations are now well-known among European and American enthusiasts. Since last year, the interest in drones in China has been rapidly increasing, and it seems to be a fashionable thing to talk about drones.

Wang Feng's proposal and Taobao's first drone delivery have made drones a hot topic in recent days. But now it seems that this is still a very small circle, and drone products are far from entering the stage of consumer electronics. If using drones to propose marriage is not surprising, then using them to deliver goods and then commercialize them is a bit difficult.

First of all, there is the cost issue, which involves not only shipping costs but also manpower amortization. Drone operation requires professionals, and judging from the Taobao drone delivery process in Beijing last week, it is impossible to sit on the sofa in the living room and watch the drone with the package slowly land on the balcony. In fact, after the drone arrives, the courier needs to deliver the package to the customer for signature.

Batch delivery is a way to reduce unit costs. Drone delivery requires at least two people to deliver one package at a time, which is obviously not economical. Imagine that in addition to mass commodity delivery, if drones are used to deliver customized goods and services, and this delivery method itself is one of the demands of enjoying this service, it may open up sales.

In addition, there are upper limits on the battery capacity, load weight, and flight time of drones. For example, Amazon 's drones can carry up to 5 pounds (about 2.27 kilograms) of packages and fly for about 25 minutes. The reality is that the central warehouses of express delivery companies in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are generally located in the suburbs. If drones are used to deliver directly to users in central areas more than 20 kilometers away, it may be difficult for the aircraft. Therefore, some industry insiders have suggested that it may be more feasible to test drone delivery from central warehouses to various branch outlets.

An interesting phenomenon has emerged in recent days: most express delivery companies and drone manufacturers have responded to reporters' interview requests by saying "I don't want to be interviewed right now" or "It involves many issues and it's inconvenient to respond." Judging from their general tendency to avoid excessive exposure, industry insiders are indeed concerned about this and are worried that regulators will "cut down" this emerging industry.

Take Taobao's trial as an example. The entire delivery process was carried out outside the Fifth Ring Road. It was said that the previously selected delivery locations involved areas within the Fifth Ring Road, but due to temporary control reasons, delivery was limited to the Tongzhou area. According to the organizers of this event, flights with an altitude of less than 100 meters and a field of view of 500 meters do not require approval, but the regulatory level has not yet drawn a clear "red line" in a targeted manner. Taobao previously said in an interview with a reporter from the "First Financial Daily" that there is no subsequent commercialization plan for drone delivery.

Even in the United States, where drones are more popular, regulatory forces have not yet given a thumbs up to the commercial operation of drones. As early as the end of 2013, Amazon, an international e-commerce giant, proposed the drone delivery plan PrimeAir, and the company is actively promoting related business and technical research, allowing drones to work with delivery vehicles to deliver packages to customers in 30 minutes or less, advancing the pace of commercialization.

However, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has not approved Amazon's drone plan. It recently allowed drones to be used to monitor crop growth and for real estate companies to take pictures of houses. It also authorized BP to use commercial drones in the empty Alaska area to monitor oil drilling platforms and pipelines, which are not related to express delivery.

Wang Xiaoxing, an analyst at Analysys International, told the China Business News that from a technological perspective, drone delivery does represent a potential development direction for future logistics, which is one of the reasons why e-commerce and logistics companies are actively experimenting with it. However, when it comes to commercialization, it is still difficult. On the one hand, drones are not technically capable of the precision, efficiency and low cost required for commercialization; on the other hand, the right to speak on "whether it can fly" is not in the hands of express and e-commerce companies, and needs to be relaxed by the approval authorities.

At present, the scope of application of drones is very broad, such as aerial photography, agriculture, real estate, firefighting, Wi-Fi hotspots, line inspection, surveying and mapping, wildlife protection, etc. In contrast, the commercialization of drones for logistics and distribution still has a long way to go. It seems that using drones to propose marriage may be more reliable than sending express delivery.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.