Is there still a chance as big players are crossing over to make mobile phones?

In today's mobile phone industry, Xiaomi can be considered an "old player", and a group of so-called outsiders are eyeing the domestic mobile phone market. Following 360 and LeTV, Gree Chairman Dong Mingzhu, who has frequently appeared in the headlines of technology news recently, suddenly showed off the latest Gree mobile phone. Even English teacher Li Yang is planning to subvert the mobile phone with his own feelings. In the Shenzhen mobile phone industry, people call this "making a phone". The reporter interviewed a number of industry experts, and they analyzed the success of these new players one by one.

Gree

"Auntie Dong" is too willful

Wang Yanhui: I have neither traditional mobile phone experience nor Internet thinking

Liu Buchen: If we don’t do it well, it may damage the brand of Gree Air Conditioner

Pan Jiutang: Gree’s real strategy is “buy an air conditioner and get a mobile phone for free”

"The market threshold for entering the mobile phone field is very low. Generally, you can sell it by putting a brand name on it and adding a logo. But the mobile phone industry chain is very complete, and it is very difficult to do well." Wang Yanhui, secretary general of the China Mobile Alliance, said that Gree mobile phones are manufactured by Zowee and designed by Longqi. He has reservations about whether they can sell well.

Liu Buchen, a senior observer of the home appliance industry, has a very clear attitude towards Gree's mobile phone business: "To a large extent, this is Dong Mingzhu's personal willful act." Not only is it inconsistent with the professionalization strategy that Gree and Dong Mingzhu have always advocated, but Gree does not have the core technology for mobile phones. If it does not do well, it is very likely to destroy the reputation that Gree Air Conditioners has accumulated over the years.

Electronics industry analyst Pan Jiutang believes that this is a small attempt by Gree, rather than a formal entry into the mobile phone field. According to him, Gree's strategy is to "buy an air conditioner and give away a mobile phone." "This is marketing. Consumers don't pay as much attention to white appliances as they do to mobile phones. Dong Mingzhu's purpose in doing this is to attract great attention from the industry and consumers."

Even if Dong Mingzhu is serious, Gree is likely to be the last in the mobile phone field in the future. "Mobile phone operations are completely different from white goods operations. If an air conditioner cannot be sold today, it can still be sold tomorrow. If it cannot be sold this year, it can still be sold next year. But if a mobile phone cannot be sold this month, no one will buy it next month." Wang Yanhui believes, "If it is not done well, Gree, which has neither traditional mobile phone experience nor Internet thinking, will basically have no competitiveness."

360

Forced to make mobile phones

Wang Yanhui: Maybe we can do it well, but the chance of entering the first-tier new brands is still zero

Pan Jiutang: Any Internet giant without a smartphone will no longer be a giant in the future

In the "Internet +" era, mobile phones have become a new operating portal and medium. The next 10 years will be the "smartphone +" era. For Qihoo 360, which started out as an Internet company, it has reached the point where it "has to make mobile phones."

"We make mobile phones because we are uncertain about the future. We may not be able to do it well, but we will definitely lose an opportunity if we don't do it." Wang Yanhui believes that the uncertainty of Internet companies comes from the companies themselves. Many of them originally provided services for PCs, but after the advent of mobile Internet, if they don't make mobile phones, they must rely on other carriers, and their living space will be reduced. "If every mobile phone has security apps installed, not only will consumers not necessarily install 360, but mobile phones with their own systems will not allow you to install them either."

"Any Internet giant that does not have a smartphone will no longer be a giant in the future." Pan Jiutang believes that 360's market is in danger of being divided by BAT and smartphone manufacturers, and 360 must enter the market. "I personally am more optimistic about 360 mobile phones."

Wang Yanhui is also optimistic. "360 Mobile may do well, but the chances of entering the first-tier new brands are still zero. After all, in the past five years, Xiaomi is the only new mobile phone brand that has been able to enter the mainstream of the Chinese market."

LeTV

It’s all about valuation

Pan Jiutang: Production capacity in the first half of the year is less than one million, so watch carefully

On April 28, US time, LeTV's mobile phone will be released in Silicon Valley. Having complained about Apple's unreasonable screen-to-body ratio and ugly design, LeTV CEO Jia Yueting directly identified Apple as LeTV's mobile phone competitor, and he understood that smart phones should be "eco-friendly phones". He said on Weibo that mobile phones will enter the ecological era from the intelligent era, and users will pay more attention to the chemical reaction between chips and ecology.

"I think LeTV's mobile phone business is a strategic preparation," Pan Jiutang believes that the reason why LeTV has developed so well is based on the monetization of a large amount of copyrighted content in the early days. In the past, LeTV was just a content provider and originally had no need to make terminals. However, content has a price, but users are priceless. In order to improve its valuation in the capital market, LeTV needs to make its own terminals and control its own users, otherwise it would be making wedding clothes for others.

An industry insider who wishes to remain anonymous revealed: "LeEco's cash flow is tight, and it has taken a lot of stocks to mortgage loans to support the company's development, so it needs to increase its valuation through terminal and car speculation. On the other hand, it also needs to maintain a high stock price. If its stock price collapses, the mortgage company's securities will use the stocks to liquidate, and its capital chain will inevitably be broken."

"Jia Yueting also knows that making mobile phones is a difficult thing. There is thunder first, and then the rain will come slowly. LeTV's mobile phone production capacity in the first half of the year is estimated to be no more than 1 million, so we still need to keep an eye on LeTV's mobile phones." Pan Jiutang said.

BAT

After repeated failures, the possibility of re-entering the game is small

Wang Yanhui: BAT is very cautious and will invest, not play on its own

Pan Jiutang: There will be no more serious players in the domestic mobile phone industry

According to Wang Yanhui, Alibaba wanted to launch its own mobile phone brand last year. It not only built a team but also produced mobile phones. However, it announced the cancellation of this business one month before the launch. This is not the first time Alibaba has tried to enter the mobile phone industry.

"For Internet companies, if they lose money, they just lose some wages, but for mobile phones, the losses are huge. If the hardware cannot be sold, it is worthless. The bigger you are and the better you sell, the higher the risk. This is because mobile phones are an industry that requires heavy asset investment. For example, if you sell 100,000 mobile phones a month, you will have two months of inventory, which is 200,000 units. If one unit sells for 1,000 yuan, you will have 200 million yuan in inventory. If you sell 2 million units a month, the inventory of 4 million units is enough to drag down a company," Wang Yanhui analyzed.

Wang Yanhui explained that it is not difficult to cultivate a user base of several million, but if the mobile phone itself does not form its own characteristics, the market will not be able to sustain it. Now the top companies in the mobile phone market have found their own characteristics and have a good operating model.

Therefore, Alibaba later chose to invest in Meizu. "BAT is very cautious in making mobile phones. They will invest in some companies, but they will not play with them themselves." Wang Yanhui said, "At least for now, they will not."

It's not just that BAT doesn't know how to make mobile phones. Pan Jiutang believes that not many people will enter this market in the future. "There may be various hypes in the future, but there are very few people who really make mobile phones like 360."

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.