What will Apple TV look like in China? Not worth looking forward to

At Apple's Spring Festival new product launch last month, although Apple Watch undoubtedly became the protagonist of the whole event, Cook's announcement of a price cut for Apple TV gave us an unexpected surprise. As Apple pays more and more attention to the Chinese market, a new round of discussions about whether Apple TV can enter the Chinese market has been set off.

In fact, rumors about Apple TV entering the Chinese market have been around for a long time, but the scope of discussion is still limited to its price, content, services, etc. After the rounds of policy suppression on the OTT box market last year, what role will Apple TV play once it enters the Chinese market and whether the domineering "Apple advantage" can arouse the purchasing desire of Chinese people have become the focus of the industry again.

How to play in the domestic box market

In fact, before last year, the entire TV box market was still thriving. Whether it was the so-called regular boxes or the popular knockoffs, they all started to attack consumers at a time when smart TVs were not yet fully popularized, and various products sprang up like mushrooms after rain. However, the good times did not last long. Starting from July and August last year, the radio and television suddenly became "serious" and took out Document No. 181 issued in 2011 to "reiterate". A series of policies claiming to be the "strictest supervision in history" caught the box companies that had just tasted the sweetness off guard.

We will not explore whether it is a new regulation or an old policy. In short, under a series of strong suppression by radio and television, the TV box market in 2015 has changed from competing on price and concept to competing on content, service and policy. Because of this, the industrial structure of OTT boxes has also changed from the original Internet companies to a market situation where the four major forces of radio and television operators, telecom operators, license holders and Internet companies jointly occupy the market.

For example, broadcasting and television operators are expected to integrate traditional broadcasting and television resources into Internet content and build a DVB+OTT model. Haven't you noticed that the boot interface of your Gehua set-top box has become two optional sections: live broadcast and on-demand? As for telecom operators, China Unicom and China Telecom have also vigorously promoted their IPTV+Internet on-demand products by relying on the number of broadband users and the advantages of live broadcast and playback. For example, China Unicom recently upgraded its smart Wojia box, and China Telecom also plans to promote the Yueme box.

However, from the current perspective, even though broadcasting and telecom operators are making every effort to promote their own OTT products, it is the Internet companies that are really thriving in this market. Among them, last year, the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television gave the seven major licensees absolute say, which directly led to a major reshuffle of the entire TV box market, with the strong becoming stronger and the weak being eliminated automatically.

However, although the seven major licensees have a strong leading role in the entire OTT box market, in fact, for a long time, they have been "unprogressive" and have shown serious homogeneity in their content. In order to avoid this situation, major Internet companies can be said to have opened their minds and found different solutions to improve their market competitiveness.

On the one hand, they actively set up companies with licensees, or cooperate with TV stations and other units in the radio and television system to obtain licenses, continue to develop video content, and win the market with differentiated content output. For example, LeTV and Chongqing Radio and Television, iQiyi and Galaxy, Lenovo and BesTV; on the other hand, they also cooperate with licensees in a more ingenious way to cooperate with home appliance companies. For example, Tencent and Konka, Alibaba and Haier; on the other hand, they promote health, games, shopping and other applications to the same level as videos, such as Alibaba’s promotion of Tmall Magic Box with shopping as a selling point based on its cooperation with Wasu.

In short, the domestic OTT market will continue to be hot in 2015, and whether it is broadcasting and television operators, telecom operators, licensees, or Internet companies, they will inevitably promote their own content and products through different cross-collaboration methods when policies permit, and give birth to various new business models.

Apple TV plays differently in the US

In fact, while the domestic OTT box industry is undergoing a revolution, the global market is also in a period of rapid development. According to a previous research firm Research and Markets, by 2017, the number of users who continue to watch OTT TV will grow to 373.1 million households, or about 1.189 billion viewers. Although from a global perspective, the OTT market is likely to replace cable TV, both domestically and abroad. But obviously, Apple TV, which is located in the United States, is also an Internet TV box, and its market environment is completely different from that of China.

Take the United States as an example. Since cable TV requires a certain amount of network access fee every month, many people do not have any cable TV installed in their homes. They usually watch various TV programs directly on computers or by purchasing boxes such as Apple TV and Fire TV. The advantage of buying a box is that you can buy whatever you want to watch separately, which not only has a high degree of freedom, but more importantly, the price is much lower than the cable TV network access fee.

At present, Apple TV not only has online video applications such as YouTube, but also has mainstream video applications such as Hulu Plus, Vimeo, Netflix and NBA. At the Apple Spring Festival new product launch conference in March, Apple also announced that it would cooperate with HBO to build HBO Now streaming service into Apple TV. At the same time, HBO NOW will be available on Apple TV and Apple Store in the United States. The service costs $14.99 per month. In other words, Apple TV users, iPhone and iPad users will all support HBO Now service in the future and can be the first to watch HBO's popular American dramas such as "Game of Thrones".

In addition, Apple also hopes that Apple TV can play its due role in smart home. Previously, the iOS system and Apple TV beta 2 released by Apple included the home sharing function, and users can use iOS applications to test AirPlay and HomeKit. This move means that Apple TV may eventually become the hub of HomeKit, allowing users to control various smart home functions, such as opening garage doors, turning on and off lights, and adjusting indoor temperature.

Obviously, in the US OTT market, there is no control by the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television, and no restrictions by licensees, and market competitiveness comes entirely from price, service and content advantages. In the domestic market, whether participating in the competition, radio and television operators, telecom operators or major Internet companies consider more than the core competitiveness brought by content. The additional dividends generated by policies will also make them have a certain degree of inertia. China Unicom's previous IPTV box is a good example.

What is it like after entering China?

Therefore, in a completely different market environment, let's imagine what it would be like if Apple TV entered the Chinese market:

1. According to the existing policy, the first thing Apple TV should do after entering China is to cooperate with at least one of the seven major licensees to ensure that the content can be managed and controlled;

2. Apple TV will not only face pressure from broadcasting and television operators, telecom operators and Internet companies, but also in terms of content, the advantages of live video content of Hulu Plus, Vimeo, Netflix and other live video platforms that Apple TV currently cooperates with will no longer exist due to policy restrictions. Therefore, once entering the Chinese market, it is necessary to re-plan the content. Perhaps it will introduce excellent exclusive video resources from abroad, or it may cooperate with several existing major video websites in China, but no matter how it is done, how to achieve content differentiation without touching the policy bottom line is a problem that Apple needs to consider;

3. In fact, if Apple TV does not have exclusive content in terms of video after entering the Chinese market, it will basically become a real Apple-branded "TV box". Apart from the advantages in brand and industrial design, the content will be hard to escape the fate of being homogenized. Instead of doing this, it is better to abandon the video and turn the product into games. Fortunately, there have been rumors recently that Apple TV will support the installation of third-party applications in the future. Therefore, in this day and age when Sony PS4 and Microsoft Xbox are already on sale, it is not a bad idea for Apple to successfully transform into the field of TV games with Apple TV. Of course, it may no longer be called Apple TV at that time;

4. After providing a dedicated app store and supporting the installation of third-party applications, Apple TV may launch more localized applications after entering the Chinese market, not just games, based on the current situation of the Chinese OTT market. Perhaps various education and health applications will greatly expand the practicality of Apple TV in China;

5. Since Apple hopes that Apple TV can make achievements in smart home and become the entrance to the living room, in addition to its own AirPlay and the rumored Siri voice control, if it wants to connect more smart home products to the HomeKit ecosystem, it must also cooperate with domestic smart home manufacturers. Major home appliance companies and smart home start-ups such as BroadLink are a good choice.

6. Although Apple announced at its Spring Festival press conference in March that the price of Apple TV would be reduced to $69 (about RMB 428), I am not really worried about the price issue if it is sold at RMB 600-800 per unit in China. After all, Apple's brand effect is there, and loyal Apple fans have long been immune to Apple's pricing;

7. Finally, I think Apple TV has another change that must be localized in addition to video content and applications - adding a USB interface. The reason why Apple TV is positioned as just a streaming device is also related to the consumption habits of foreign users, just like what is said above, "buy whatever you want to watch", but this concept is obviously not applicable in China. For those of us who have always had no copyright awareness, what should we do if we download blockbusters online? Of course, you can download the movie to iTunes and then use Apple TV to watch it. However, I believe that not many people are willing to do this. Therefore, it is really possible that Apple will design a version with a USB interface specifically for Chinese users.

Apple TV's entry into China is not worth looking forward to

But to be honest, if Apple does not have a breakthrough application innovation on Apple TV, I am not really interested in what Apple TV will become after entering China. Because under the intervention of domestic policies, the video content of Apple TV is bound to become homogenized, and even if it may add games, education, health and other applications, before there is a disruptive experience, there are really too many alternative products in the domestic market. Of course, smart home may be an important direction for Apple TV, but from the perspective of the entire smart home environment, it is still hard to say when it can reach the ideal state.

Therefore, at present, the introduction of Apple TV into China may just be a little consolation for Apple fans regarding Apple's "regularization of its entire product line."

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.