Xiaomi Clearance Festival data analysis: more youthful than rich

The Mi Fan Festival is over, and Lei Jun quickly posted the data last night. This morning, the media released the official confirmed data as of 23:00 last night: total payment amount of 2.08 billion yuan; 2.12 million mobile phones; more than 38,600 TVs; 79,000 routers; 770,000 smart hardware devices, including 200,000 bracelets and 247,000 new Xiaomi power strips; total payment amount for accessories of 190 million yuan. In addition, 3.05 million orders.

It is indeed quite impressive. At least in China, no electronics company can drive marketing to such an extent by relying on a fan festival created by itself.

If you only look at the dazzling numbers, you will be confused and unable to understand what information and topics are hidden in them.

Let's assume that Xiaomi's data is not fake at all. Although it is not listed, it has no obligation to give you more accurate information. Let me briefly interpret it and try to let you see some things worth paying attention to.

Let's do a reverse restore from the beginning. Yes, this data must be reversible, otherwise there will be problems.

Let’s first analyze the relationship between price, trading volume and total trading amount.

Let’s not talk about mobile phones for now.

1. More than 38,600 Xiaomi TVs. It is a fact that the first generation of Xiaomi TV did not sell well. Xiaomi itself admitted it a few days ago. The information released by Xiaomi officials during the Mi Fan Festival yesterday was that the shipment of Xiaomi TV 2 exceeded 10,000 units, which means that Xiaomi TV 2 took the lead this time. I believe that the shipment of 55-inch is average, and it should be the Xiaomi 2 (49-inch) model. The 55-inch Xiaomi 1 and Xiaomi 2 are just auxiliary. Then combined with the official price of Xiaomi TV, it can be obtained that the transaction volume of Xiaomi TV will not exceed 150 million, and it is likely to be between 110 million and 140 million. You can calculate it yourself.

2. 79,000 Xiaomi routers, combined with the official website price, roughly cost 15.72 million yuan.

3. 770,000 smart hardware devices. More than 200,000 smart bracelets were sold, which, combined with the sales price, was about 15.8 million yuan; more than 247,000 new Xiaomi power strips were sold, with a sales of 1.21 million yuan. I believe there are others, but considering the sales volume of new products, there shouldn’t be many other old models.

4. The total payment amount for accessories exceeds RMB 190 million.

5. 3.05 million orders. Dividing 2.08 billion yuan, the average price of each order is about 680 yuan.

Adding up all the above terminal and accessories data, it can be concluded that the transaction amount excluding Xiaomi mobile phones is roughly: 363 million yuan.

Subtracting this from the total transaction amount of 2.08 billion, we can get the approximate transaction amount of Xiaomi mobile phones, which is 1.717 billion. Dividing it by the shipment of 2.12 million mobile phones, we can get the average price of a single Xiaomi mobile phone during the Mi Fan Festival is 810 yuan.

There are many other Xiaomi products that are not calculated, such as piston earphones, weight scales, etc. I don't know how many of its air purifiers have been sold. In other words, if all the statistics are added up and subtracted, the final data result is that the unit price of Xiaomi mobile phones may be less than 800 yuan, or even lower.

What does this mean? This reflects the shipment structure of Xiaomi's mobile phone series: it is still a mobile phone company that focuses on the low-end market.

If you consider that Xiaomi has released many models in the past year and the Xiaomi Mi 5 is coming soon, you will feel that the average price of 800 yuan implies the intention of clearing out the previous series. In other words, the Mi Fan Festival is also a festival to sell off the previous generation of products. This can make way for new products. The few new products officially launched by Xiaomi for the Mi Fan Festival are not the main products, except for the socket.

I think this strategy is intended to block and consolidate the market. The Xiaomi brand started as a loser, but is moving towards a higher level. If the mid-to-high-end move is too big, it is likely to drag down the overall shipments. In 2015, when a wave of Internet brand mobile phones suddenly became popular and several traditional manufacturers began to refocus, Xiaomi's basic users faced an impact. The Mi Fan Festival can play a blocking role by clearing out goods during the peak sales season in 2015.

In addition to clearing out inventory and making way for new products, it also has another purpose, which is to increase Xiaomi's gross profit and brand influence, and create more opportunities for Xiaomi's new round of competition, especially its ecological layout.

I have to go around and clarify the impression. When I say clearing out the stock, it does not mean that Xiaomi machines are low-quality machines. Low-end prices do not mean that the products are bad. Xiaomi is generally very cost-effective. A company that organizes such a large-scale fan festival to drive marketing at least shows the influence of its brand in the minds of the public. If you go to the countryside, you will see that children in their teens are playing with it.

This deep-rooted influence has laid the foundation for Xiaomi's ecological layout around mobile phones. The reason why it dares to make diversified hardware products, in addition to systems, software and services, is the power of the brand, which is the basis for its continued implementation. It should be said that the Xiaomi brand has a high premium.

When you look at Xiaomi Life, an O2O platform, and its investment in Dianping, you can see that Xiaomi's service chain is based on the Internet+ mindset, which is to connect offline life. Overall, Xiaomi is a down-to-earth company.

However, this is a long-term layout, and many aspects will not release their effects immediately. The soaring data of Mi Fan Festival also reflects Xiaomi’s short-term difficulties, or even brand difficulties.

The average price of less than 800 yuan at least shows that it is difficult for Xiaomi to make money from hardware. So far, in addition to the bargaining power gained by brand, shipment, and efficient supply chain, its profit model mainly relies on distribution to make profits.

This model means that in the medium term, your growth will still be mainly driven by terminal shipments. However, we see that despite the strong global smartphone shipments in 2014, competition may become differentiated in 2015 and beyond. Xiaomi's smartphone shipment growth may not be as rapid as in 2014, and gross profit may continue to be limited.

It is not the only player in the market. In addition to Apple, Samsung, Huawei, ZTE and Lenovo, LG, Sony and HTC, which have been somewhat passive in the past two years, are also reintensifying their competition with high-end phones in order to regain their market position. The dense information in the past two weeks has already conveyed the smell of gunpowder in the middle and second half of 2015.

At this time, Xiaomi is facing greater pressure on gross profit and scale. Lei Jun cannot help but consider this issue. If Xiaomi is only satisfied with the current price range, it will face the impact of new Internet mobile phone brands at home and abroad. Alibaba Meizu, 360, Gree and traditional camp TCL are also strengthening their layout.

In other words, 2015 is not only a milestone for Xiaomi's 5th anniversary, but also a critical year for the company's strategic focus adjustment. In order to resolve the suppression of mobile phone shipments, Xiaomi must make a breakthrough in its brand image and further accelerate the strengthening of its ecological layout.

Diversifying hardware layout is one way, but not all products can hit the pain points. And if not done well, mistakes may be made. Xiaomi has made mistakes before. In addition, we must prevent the brand value from being overly diluted.

Xiaomi phones are great, but the real strength of Xiaomi lies in its MIUI ecosystem. Without it, Xiaomi phones will have no future. At this stage, Xiaomi can only rely mainly on mobile phones to create influence, but it must acquire the ability to define the industry before a wave of dividends, so as to form a competitiveness based on the ecosystem.

Xiaomi's rush into the smart home is a good choice. Even if the product is not popular in the short term, as long as it is in this large space, it should not make mistakes, at least it will not go astray. This field can bring out the overall strength of Xiaomi and integrate all its advantageous resources. Although automobiles are also products that integrate global ICT technology and can connect applications and life, this is a great test for the company's brand. Xiaomi still lacks a lot of support, including the technical level.

At least at this stage, Xiaomi still needs to focus on individuals and families. If it deviates from this scope in the short term, it is likely to make mistakes.

Xiaomi has reason to show off its Mi Fan Festival shipment data, but the hidden problems and even risks cannot be ignored. 2015 is not only the node of Xiaomi's 5th anniversary, but also a time window for it to show the outside world whether it can show more room for growth. If it is satisfied with the above-mentioned pile of awesome data, Xiaomi's quality will not improve much; however, if it takes too big a step, Xiaomi's ecological layout will turn many of its original partners into competitors. At present, BAT has regarded it as a core player. And second-tier Internet companies have also begun to use it as a target of competition.

This will test Xiaomi's ecological concept and brand positioning. In my opinion, if Xiaomi, which is 5 years old, can only show speed and efficiency, it will convey more power, participation, and youthful temperament, but it lacks a kind of heaviness and accumulation, and will encounter resistance from multiple forces. A truly powerful Xiaomi is an ecological Xiaomi, and mobile phones are just the cornerstone of the first wave of value amplification in its long journey.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.