The rise and fall of Chinese smartphones as seen from Taobao sales

Smartphones have been one of the hottest consumer products in China over the past few years. Taobao is a rare place with relatively reliable statistics (there may be manipulation of the rankings, but the long-term trend is fine). I have been regularly checking Taobao's mobile phone sales rankings and prices since 2009.

Over the past few years, we have seen tall buildings rise and fall one after another, and the successes and failures of various brands have been like passing clouds. Looking back, it is quite interesting to find that the trends in some industries will appear on the sales charts some time in advance.

In short, Taobao's smartphone sales list has gone through five stages from 2009 to the present, and the rise and fall of various brands have occurred between these stages.

1. Nokia’s Dominance

Nokia’s market share in China reached 36% around 2007, which was Nokia’s heyday. Although the iPhone came out in 2007 and Android later, Nokia’s dominance lasted until 2010.

In the Taobao sales list in 2008, Nokia's N95 and N73 were the most popular. In 2009, they were replaced by 5800 and N78, and in 2010 it was 5230. It is normal for Nokia's various models to occupy 7 or 8 of the top 10 in Taobao sales. Motorola, Sony Ericsson and Samsung can occasionally make their mark.

That is to say, the new era of smartphones theoretically began with the release of the iPhone in 2007. However, in China, until 2010, before the iPhone 4 appeared, Apple was just a marginalized niche player mobile phone brand.

Similarly, Android did not have any advantages in its early days. This was because the hardware was very weak at the time, and low-configuration Android phones provided a poor experience and could not replace the dominant position of Nokia's S60V5.

This is also the reason why I have always believed that Nokia's later acquisition was entirely due to Elop's doing. Nokia had a pretty good life before Android matured, and it was completely in time for it to transform into Android and become another Samsung around 2011.

Nokia later switched to WP, and sales began to decline rapidly, but Symbian models remained at the top of the sales charts until the end of 2011, and discontinued models still had sales. After that, they disappeared.

(II) Android Era

By 2011, after Android's hardware had developed to the A8 processor and its software had developed to versions 2.2 and 2.3, the experience gradually improved.

There were several outstanding machines in this era. Motorola's Milestone, Samsung's i9000 and ZTE's V880. Motorola's Milestone was a machine with a high-configuration processor. Samsung's i9000 integrated Samsung's years of accumulation of hardware technology, and all aspects of the experience were top-notch at the time. It sold tens of millions of units in one fell swoop and entered the top ten on Taobao. This was also the first time that an Android phone appeared at the top of the Taobao sales list.

Another star model at this time was ZTE's V880. It was first launched in Europe and was called Blade. I think it was the first mobile phone that brought out the advantages of Chinese manufacturing. It had good configuration and a very low price. The price-performance ratio was unbeatable at the time. ZTE V880 is also one of the few mobile phones made in China that had to be purchased overseas until it was launched in China.

In this era, Android phones began to replace Nokia's Symbian and feature phones. In this era, Samsung and ZTE both had the opportunity to become the king in the next few years, but unfortunately ZTE missed this opportunity, which was also the beginning of the decline of ZTE mobile phones.

After the release of v880 and u880, ZTE's products experienced a serious gap, and the speed of product upgrades and improvements lagged far behind other manufacturers. The real decline of ZTE mobile phones only became apparent around 2013, and on Taobao, it was already obvious in 2012 when the v970 was no longer popular.

3. Apple and Samsung Era

Although the first generation of Apple mobile phones was released in 2007 and the fourth generation was released in 2010, it was not until 2012 that it became popular on Taobao's sales charts.

Apple's sales ranking on Taobao is very interesting. The best-selling products are always outdated products. After the release of iPhone 4S, the cheap iPhone 4 rose to the top of Taobao's sales ranking. Because outdated products include Hong Kong version, Japanese version, American version, and refurbished products, the prices are much cheaper than new products. Taobao is a market that likes low prices.

The same era was also the heyday of Samsung. After the i9000, Samsung had a comprehensive layout, with i9100 and i9300 one after another. New products were launched, old products were reduced in price, and there were various versions of low-priced products. In addition to the Galaxy, Samsung also had a note product line and a low-priced product line of around 1,000 yuan (5830). In its heyday, the top ten on Taobao were

The brand effect of Apple and Samsung has defeated Nokia, Sony, and HTC. Except for ZTE's V880 and U880, other domestic brands have been unable to fight back until Xiaomi appeared.

The rise of Samsung and Apple in China was already very obvious in 2012. Samsung dominated the market in the following years, and in the first quarter of 2015, Apple's iPhone became the best-selling phone in China according to IDC statistics.

(IV) Xiaomi Era

Xiaomi also had a lag on Taobao. The Xiaomi mobile phone was released in 2011, but the first batch of users did not receive the goods until the end of the year. In the early days, Xiaomi really had no production capacity and supply.

Xiaomi really appeared on the sales list in the second quarter of 2012, when the supply was already sufficient. After the era of Apple and Samsung, it became the era of Apple, Samsung and Xiaomi.

In fact, from the perspective of total volume, Xiaomi's shipments in 2012 were very poor, only a few million units, and it was not considered a first-tier manufacturer. However, from Taobao's perspective, Xiaomi has become a giant competing with Apple and Samsung. Taobao predicted Xiaomi's future potential. In 2014, Xiaomi shipped 60 million units, and it really became a real giant.

(V) Internet Brand Era

After Xiaomi's Redmi became a huge hit, various manufacturers finally understood Xiaomi's tactics and began to learn from it. Xiaomi also began to enrich its product line and launched the Redmi series. Taobao smartphones entered the Internet brand era.

It should be pointed out in particular that Samsung has shown signs of decline in this era. In the Apple and Samsung era, Samsung could occupy 4 or 5 places in the top ten, but now it is no longer seen, and has been replaced by various Internet brands.

Samsung's troubles began to emerge in late 2013 and early 2014, when it lost its dominance on Taobao's sales charts. However, it was several quarters later that Samsung's problems were exposed in its financial reports.

In the Internet brand era of 2014, Xiaomi had Xiaomi 3, Xiaomi 2S and Redmi, occupying three positions. Honor 3C and Coolpad Dashen, two Internet brands, also occupied two positions. Among the top ten Taobao sales, five were occupied by the top five Internet brands, three by Apple, and the remaining two were a Nokia keyboard phone priced at more than 100 yuan and a Daxian senior phone.

The era of Internet brands began at the end of 2013 and has continued to this day. The current smartphone landscape is that Apple occupies the high-end market, while Internet brands such as Xiaomi, Honor, and Dasheng occupy the low-end market.

There are two recent changes.

One is that Meizu's Meizu Blue is gaining momentum and has already entered the top of the sales charts. In the M8 and M9 eras, Meizu was only a marginal phone with weekly sales of 200 units, which could only be found after flipping through several pages of the sales charts. According to the current trend, Meizu will have an outstanding performance in its financial report at the end of 2015.

Another example is that in the fourth quarter of 2014, after the release of new products, Apple's most popular models were not the old models of previous years, but the popular iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus. As expected, Apple's sales and profits in China were all off the charts in the first quarter of 2015. According to the trend, Apple's financial report at the end of 2015 will also be very impressive.

It is quite interesting to talk about the reason why I have been paying attention to Taobao sales list for many years.

In 2009, when someone boasted about the sales of Meizu M8 on the Meizu forum, I went to check it out. Since then, I have developed the habit of regularly checking the mobile phone sales rankings, which I have continued to do to this day.

This is also part of my ability to observe and analyze the smartphone industry. In 2011, I predicted that Nokia would be acquired by Microsoft, and I was considered crazy (the article titled "Detailed Explanation of Nokia's Crisis" can still be searched today), but later facts proved my judgment.

Taobao’s sales volume is relatively real and can reflect user demand; user demand and product preferences determine product sales in the future; and sales volume will ultimately be reflected in the company’s financial statements.

Due to Taobao’s representativeness and the importance of the Chinese market, changes in Taobao’s sales can even reflect the rise and fall of international companies.

Nokia's rise and fall, Samsung's rise and fall, the rise of the iPhone, the rise of Xiaomi, and the rise of Internet brands were all reflected in Taobao's sales charts.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.