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John Landgraf's point came like a bolt from the blue.
As the CEO of FX Films, he pointed out a problem facing the current TV industry that has been recognized by producers, audiences and critics: it is sick. The root cause of the disease is: there are too many programs on the screen.
Earlier this month, he told a media event hosted by the Television Critics Association that the oversupply of television shows makes it difficult for a show to stand out and become a hit, and that it is now a huge challenge to find compelling original stories and attract the right talent to produce them.
On the surface, the idea seems absurd. Regardless, critics and audiences have hailed the current era as a new golden age for television. Series as diverse as Game of Thrones and Empire have become an integral part of contemporary culture. Television has shed its second-class status in the film and television industry and has added A-list actors and film directors to its roster.
But no one accused Mr. Landgraf of being absurd or exaggerated. Instead, his comments sparked a serious discussion about how much is too much and whether the TV industry is truly facing a crisis.
Kit Harington (left) of Game of Thrones, whose success has sparked a boom in scripted dramas that some say is unsustainable.
“I hear this over and over again these days,” said Michael Lombardo, HBO’s president of programming content. “They say, I can’t do another show. I don’t have the time to devote full-time to another show. I hear it, I realize it, and I understand it.”
Lombardo and other producers say it's hard to get a steady audience for a new show these days because viewers have so many options and can switch channels at any time, so there's no way to make money on the show.
The success of scripted shows like Modern Family and The Walking Dead has spurred a land grab: The number of scripted shows produced by networks, cable companies and Internet video companies swelled to 371 last year, according to FX. Landgraf estimates that this year the number will exceed 400, nearly double the 2009 total of 211.
“Year after year after year, when we go out and talk to audiences, we keep seeing the fact that TV shows are not that valuable because there are so many of them,” Mr. Landgraf said in an interview. “TV series, TV shows and show creators are being sold in packages, and they’re a dime a dozen.”
“Right now, the amount of money spent on producing and promoting television shows is disproportionate to the number of viewers they bring in,” he added.
The distressed and cautious comments come as many TV companies are trying to transform themselves. Earlier this month, media company stocks fell as analysts said the market lacked confidence in cable TV companies because they have become bloated and expensive. Mergers and acquisitions have been booming in the industry as media companies try to grow and gain a higher market position.
The decline in TV ratings is a fact of life, but people tend to attribute much of the decline to technology and changes in viewing habits. Landgraf's counterintuitive view is that the decline in ratings can be attributed in part to the loss of good shows due to too much choice.
For program producers, the biggest challenge is in terms of creativity: Are there enough talents? For cable TV stations and film and television companies, it is another problem: their business mainly depends on advertising, so if people can't see their programs at all, what will happen?
"Why would I watch John Landgraf's new show on FX if I can watch Breaking Bad?" said Rich Greenfield, a media analyst at BTIG. "I might watch John's new show, but I might not watch it for three years. For a TV company whose business model relies heavily on TV advertising, if you don't watch it in the first three days, it's worthless to advertisers."
Sofia Vergara in Modern Family
Yet David Nevins, chairman of Showtime, said he believes viewers are rarely bothered by the plethora of choices.
“No matter what show they’re watching, no matter how much they like it, they always say, what else should I watch,” he said. “They want more.”
Charlie Collier, chairman of AMC, was more forceful. “To say there’s too much TV can sound like a surrender,” he said. “In fact, the solution to the problem of too much TV is, and always has been, the next great show, the one that lets people let go of everything.”
Others point to the boom in television production, which has created more opportunities for shows with offbeat casts and themes, such as Jane the Virgin, Transparent and Orange Is the New Black. Marti Noxon, who has run Lifetime's The Mirror and Bravo's The Girlfriends' Guide to Divorce, says the world of television production has changed dramatically in the past five years.
“Five years ago, I wouldn’t have been able to get these two shows on TV,” she said. “There aren’t enough opportunities for shows that focus on niche topics. Now a lot of networks are no longer trying to appeal to everyone, they’re trying to appeal to a certain group of people. That’s opened up a lot of opportunities for women and other groups that were previously ignored.”
Chris Albrecht, CEO of Starz, said that the prosperity of TV series also provides a channel for growth and promotion for talents in the industry. He said that good programs are an excellent training ground for excellent screenwriters, and excellent screenwriters can grow into excellent operators.
There are multiple reasons for this boom. TV season is now year-round, with new shows even in the summer. And the number of TV producers has grown significantly, both on cable TV and on streaming sites like Amazon or Netflix. “This year, I finally couldn’t keep track of every producer in the scripted drama business anymore,” Landgraf said at TCA.
What's more, streaming sites like Hulu not only produce new shows, they also continue to renew old shows. The Mindy Project was canceled by Fox after the third season due to poor ratings. Now, Hulu has picked up the show again using its paid subscription business model. The fourth season it produced will be released on the site next month.
"It's not about excess programming, it's about more choice. And we're happy to contribute to that," said Craig Erwich, Hulu's head of programming content. "One of our values is that we put the audience first. We want to give the audience the choice to decide what they want to watch."
Terrence Howard (left) and Bryshere Gray in the FOX series “Empire.” Last year, television, cable and Internet video companies produced 371 scripted series, according to FX.
To make matters worse, today’s shows not only have to compete with each other, but also with classic series available on sites like Amazon, Hulu or Netflix. For example, the latest season of Scandal has to compete with classic series like The Wire for viewers’ attention.
Landgraf thinks the industry contraction is coming: He predicts that over the next few years, the number of new series will slowly fall back to 325 per year, in large part because of the high production costs of scripted dramas.
“It takes a lot of work to make a scripted show. Cameras, sound, sets, insurance, trucks, actors, production managers, directors, writers. It’s not a business that can be easily reinvented,” he said. “YouTube can make some special TV shows in a warehouse relatively cheaply. But professionally made scripted shows are expensive and require a large audience [to be profitable].”
Media companies are responding to this growing challenge in different ways. Mr. Landgraf said FX is focusing heavily on producing its own programming.
HBO, which does not rely on advertising revenue, has a different approach. Mr. Lombardo said he spent a lot of time researching other forms of programming because scripted dramas are so common and their audiences are conditioned to demand something new with every show.
He said: "If you ask us, do we want to do another series? The answer is no, unless it has the potential to be a great TV series. What we want to do now is to provide a variety of TV entertainment experiences."
He cited several examples of shows that have attracted more of his attention recently, such as the documentary series "The Jinx" featuring fugitive Robert Durst, some talk shows hosted by John Oliver and others, and the upcoming talk show hosted by Bill Simmons.
"We've had a lot of serious discussions over the past few years about bringing Bill Simmons on to do a talk show, just like we've had a lot of discussions about the next great TV show," he said. "I spend as much time thinking about what's going to happen next year as I do with the writers." Mr. Landgraf, whose network has produced such successful shows as "Louie," "Fargo" and "The Americans," said there's a restlessness among viewers that makes it hard for them to stay loyal to a great show. He said the success of some shows takes time, which allows producers to learn how to make them and audiences to learn how to appreciate them.
“Some of the best stuff — like ‘Seinfeld’ — is what people initially don’t appreciate because the ideas are so radical,” Mr. Landgraf said.
Today, few people are willing to be generous with their time for a show like this, he said.
He went on to say, “I’m afraid Seinfeld would have a lot of trouble getting past the initial screening today.”
As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity. |
