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According to data from the China Automobile Dealers Association (CAAD), the pickup truck market sold 47,000 vehicles in October 2020, up 18% year-on-year, and the monthly trend continued to be strong. The total pickup truck volume increased by 8% from January to October this year, which is also compared with the strong growth of the pickup truck market from January to October in 2019. This year, due to the epidemic and fluctuations in demand in Beijing, the year-on-year decline was large. In recent years, pickup trucks have become a new hot spot for passenger and commercial vehicle consumption, and have continued to perform strongly. However, pickup truck companies have recently diverged, and the main car companies have strongly improved. Some traditional pickup truck companies are facing huge growth pressure. The pickup truck market is supported to continue to recover in the coming period. First, the steady economic recovery in recent period has laid a solid foundation for the continued recovery of the autumn market. Secondly, many new industries, new formats and new models have emerged during the epidemic, which will continue to provide strong support for the economic recovery. In addition, the pickup truck market will benefit from the effects of macroeconomic policies and will become more apparent. 1. Overall analysis of the pickup truck market 1. Comparison of national pickup truck market trends from January to October In October 2020, the pickup truck market sold 47,000 units, an increase of 18% year-on-year and a decrease of 1% month-on-month. Compared with the year-on-year growth rate, compared with October 2019, it fell by 2% year-on-year. Due to the recovery factors after the epidemic, October this year performed strongly. Pickup truck sales increased by 10% in 2018. From January to December 2019, the cumulative sales of pickup trucks reached 440,000 units, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 3%. From January to October 2019, the year-on-year decrease was 3%. In the fourth quarter of last year, the pickup truck trend continued to weaken, with a year-on-year decline of 2%. In October this year, pickup trucks performed very well compared to traditional light trucks, but the growth of light trucks was mainly in the eastern market, while the growth of pickup trucks was in the Midwestern market, so the growth was differentiated. 2. Monthly trends of pickup truck market over the years The pickup truck wholesale market in 2020 started at a relatively low level, and performed unusually strongly compared to October 2018 and 2019. This was also due to the interference of the 2020 epidemic. Pickup trucks are capital goods vehicles. Since there are relatively few pickup trucks purchased before the Spring Festival, pickup truck sales enter the peak season after the Spring Festival. This is also the demand growth point for engineering projects and unit purchases. The sales volume of passenger cars represents the quality of life and pursuit of Chinese consumers, but the sales volume of commercial vehicles represents the development status of China's small enterprises and small private owners. Only when the demand for commercial vehicles increases and basic people's livelihood issues are resolved, can the passenger car market have the possibility of recovery. The pickup truck market also directly reflects the development of small private business owners. Overall, in the first half of this year, the pickup truck market represented by Great Wall has become the vanguard of the automobile market's recovery after the epidemic has eased. It continued to rise month-on-month in May and June of 2020, and grew strongly again in September and October, mainly due to the suppressed car demand of small owners after the epidemic and the promotion of consumption and environmental protection factors. 2. Analysis of pickup truck market environment 1. Cancel the restriction on pickup trucks in various places In January this year, Hebei, Jilin and other regions were the first to relax the ban; in February, Zhejiang, Jiangxi and other regions followed suit. In May, Chongqing relaxed traffic management restrictions on pickup trucks with Chongqing license plates registered within the city, making it the first municipality in my country where pickup trucks can travel freely. 2. Tesla pickup truck will start trial production in Texas in May next year Tesla's electric pickup Cybertruck will begin trial production at its Texas factory in May next year. Tesla recently released the "Travis County Colorado River Project Partner Prequalification Report," which includes a rough timeline for its upcoming electric pickup Cybertruck and Semi truck. 3. Geely Commercial Vehicles completed the layout of six bases and the Shangrao base officially started production On October 27, 2020, the opening ceremony of the Geely Commercial Vehicle Shangrao Base with the theme of "Gathering Momentum and Starting a New Journey Together" officially kicked off. As the second modern industrial park launched by Geely Commercial Vehicle this year, the Shangrao Base marks the completion of the strategic layout of Geely Commercial Vehicle's six global bases and the entry into an accelerated development stage. Geely Commercial Vehicle Shangrao Base is building a new generation of intelligent urban commercial vehicle R&D and manufacturing base based on digital and automated process equipment, producing mid-to-high-end light commercial vehicle products and pickup trucks, and creating a modern automobile industrial park with world-leading level. 3. Competition Analysis of China’s Pickup Truck Market 1. Analysis of pickup truck manufacturers’ performance In 2020, the main manufacturers in the pickup truck market performed well. Great Wall Motors maintained a stable and absolute dominant position in pickup trucks. Jiangxi Isuzu has recently strengthened, and SAIC Maxus, Changan Automobile, and Beiqi Foton have risen rapidly. In October, JAC Motors and ZTE Auto performed relatively steadily, while SAIC Maxus and Beiqi Foton saw significant growth. 2. Pickup truck manufacturers’ annual market share trends In 2020, the pickup truck market still maintained the trend of 1+3+n, but gradually showed a trend of differentiation. Great Wall Motors' pickup truck sales stood out. In recent years, Great Wall's pickup truck sales share has continued to increase, maintaining 34% of the total pickup trucks in 2019 and reaching 46% this year. This year, Great Wall Pickup has a 46% market share, while the other three companies, including Jiangling, Zhengzhou Nissan, and Jiangxi Isuzu, have a 30% market share. The combined market share of the following companies is nearly 25%, which forms a pattern in which the leading companies squeeze the sales of the trailing companies. The manufacturers with a market share of about 10% in pickup trucks are Jiangling Motors and Zhengzhou Nissan, both of which are relatively strong traditional manufacturers in history. Jiangling Motors' market share has gradually declined, Isuzu has rebounded, and Zhengzhou Nissan's market share has remained relatively stable. Due to the impact of the epidemic this year, there was demand for delayed purchases in February-April, so pickup trucks performed strongly from May to October. 3. Monthly trends of pickup truck manufacturers Some pickup truck companies have performed relatively well recently. After strong growth in the first quarter, Great Wall Pickup has performed well recently and has become a manufacturer that has significantly strengthened. In October, the performance of Great Wall and Jiangling pickups fell slightly, while the performance of SAIC Maxus and Changan Automobile pickups was relatively strong. From May to October, traditional pickup truck manufacturers were very strong, especially Great Wall's pickup trucks performed very well. Jiangling pickup trucks recovered quickly. Relatively speaking, the pickup trucks of SAIC Maxus and Changan Automobile, which are relatively new forces, performed well. 4. Pickup Truck Market Model Trends 1. Monthly trends of pickup truck models According to the pickup truck market tracking by the China Passenger Car Association, Great Wall pickup trucks occupy an absolute dominant position in the pickup truck trend. In the early stage, the Fengjun 5 pickup truck performed well, and in the first half of the year, the Fengjun 7 performed outstandingly. Recently, Great Wall Cannon and Fengjun 7 have become the main players in the market. 2. Monthly trends of pickup truck models of major manufacturers A. Great Wall Motors The performance of the main manufacturer Great Wall is better than the industry trend. Great Wall pickup trucks have strong technical reserves and prepared for the National VI adjustment in advance, achieving better product correspondence. Great Wall's sales volume shrank in December 2019. In February and March of the beginning of 2020, various manufacturers made deep adjustments. From April to June, Great Wall pickup trucks gradually recovered. In June, Great Wall pickup truck manufacturers' sales volume exploded and hit a record high. From July to October, Great Wall pickup trucks returned to a reasonable growth range and will grow steadily in the future. B. Jiangling Motors In 2020, Jiangling pickup truck sales adjusted significantly due to the turbulence in the auto market. In the early stage, Jiangling pickup trucks were also in the process of adjusting to National VI. In the early stage of 2019, sales were actively adjusted and gradually recovered in the later stage. Jiangling pickup trucks had a temporary sales slump due to the delay of National VI products and the delisting of Baodian. Since the gradual launch of National VI models in October last year, the market performance has continued to strengthen in March and April this year, and sales have remained high in September and October. Jiangling pickup trucks have a good retail performance and continue to strengthen. C.Zhengzhou Nissan Zhengzhou Nissan's pickup trucks have remained relatively stable. Under the epidemic, the demand for car purchases by industry users is relatively high, and industry users have sufficient funds and relatively large demand for vehicles. Therefore, Zhengzhou Nissan's pickup trucks in October performed very steadily, which is also a good brand building effect. Jiangxi Isuzu's pickup trucks are relatively strong. The demand for vehicles is relatively large during this epidemic, especially for industry users and small private owners. Therefore, Jiangxi Isuzu performed very well in June, which is also a good way to boost production and consumption. The depth of adjustment of Jiangxi Isuzu's pickup trucks in July was not very serious. The launch of the new pickup truck Ruimai from August to October had a good effect on pickup trucks. 5. Analysis of regional structure of China’s pickup truck market 1. Regional market changes for pickup trucks Affected by the epidemic, the recent pickup truck sales have undergone drastic changes from the previous structure, with the southwest region performing particularly well, with a significant year-on-year increase in share. The share of the eastern Yangtze River region has also increased significantly. However, in North China and Northeast China, where traditional state-owned enterprises dominate, administrative orders are relatively strong and the market is severely closed. Beijing's traffic restrictions have caused the pickup truck market to freeze. 2. Changes in the urban pickup market The above figure shows the distribution of pickup truck market share in different cities. The pickup truck market has undergone significant regional changes under the epidemic, with county and township market shares rising significantly. The market in large cities has temporarily shrunk. As the purchase restriction pressure in Beijing increases in the future, electric vehicles will not be issued license plates, and pickup trucks will be restricted in Beijing, the pickup truck market needs new highlights. With the promotion of policies to stimulate consumption, the call for pickup trucks to enter cities continues to grow. However, the effect of pickup trucks entering cities is not outstanding. In the early stage, they were basically introduced into Beijing, and the effect of pickup trucks entering other cities was average. 3. Beijing pickup truck market faces great pressure Beijing began to implement total volume control on passenger cars in 2011. So far, the ratio of license plates in Beijing has reached 2000:1. Beijing's license plate lottery policy is mainly for small passenger cars, and pickup trucks are not included in the scope of the lottery policy, so the possibility of "getting a Beijing license plate without lottery" still exists. The development potential of the pickup truck market is still huge, especially since Beijingers have money to spend, and the demand for high-end non-restricted pickup trucks is still huge. The Beijing market reached its climax from March to October in 2019, and then various constraints were tightened. The monthly total volume in January 2020 dropped sharply to 1,000 units, and in October it also dropped sharply to 311 units, a decrease of one-ninth. It is difficult to see the explosive growth in 2019 in the short term. Beijing's pickup truck market has temporarily slowed down. Beijing's restriction on pickup trucks entering the city this year is a special case. Only Beijing will restrict pickup trucks. This is an extension of Beijing's restriction on the growth of passenger cars. As the capital, Beijing carries a relatively special function. Other cities are not troubled by such problems. Therefore, we should look at the issue of Beijing's pickup truck growth rationally. Don't expect Beijing to relax its policies. Leaving Beijing behind is an inevitable choice. 4. Shanghai pickup truck market recovers Since 2018, six provinces and cities including Yunnan, Xinjiang, Liaoning, Hubei, Henan and Hebei have begun to relax the restrictions on pickup trucks. Not long ago, Shanghai, which has the strictest restrictions on pickup trucks, also officially announced that it would further relax restrictions on this type of vehicle. Recently, Shanghai has relaxed the registration conditions for pickup trucks. "Light multi-purpose trucks (pickup trucks)" can not only apply for registration according to the original small truck quota, but also refer to the current "Shanghai C" passenger car management model for registration, but the nature of the vehicle is limited to "non-operating". As a result, the pickup truck market in September had a clear upward trend, but it failed to continue. 6. Pickup Truck Market Performance in Each City 1. Pickup trucks in regional markets are temporarily out of whack Pickup truck sales in October this year were still mainly in the southwest, with Jiangling, JAC, Foton and other companies performing well in the southwest. Great Wall's new factory also boosted sales in the southwest. Pickup truck retail trends in regional markets diverge. Some companies have gradually put their National VI models in place, while the distribution of major manufacturers is significantly different. Great Wall performs well in all market segments. Jiangling Motors and Zhengzhou Nissan's pickup trucks are mainly dominant in East China. Nissan has performed strongly in Beijing recently. 2. Pickup trucks in regional markets are temporarily out of whack Currently, pickup trucks are mainly used in China by consumers in third- and fourth-tier cities or in rural areas. They buy pickup trucks for production and use them as a tool to carry people and goods. This is more common in the southwest region and Hainan, especially for operators of high-end cash crops and high-end farm stays. Pickup trucks are very practical and classy. 3. Pickup truck performance in major cities In October, sales in the pickup truck market gradually recovered, with the main areas being Chongqing, Chengdu and other southwestern regions which are the core focus of pickup trucks. In the early stage, the Beijing market stood out, with the numbers far higher than those in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and also higher than the demand characteristics of southwestern regions such as Chongqing and Chengdu. Recently, the Beijing market has been under great downward pressure, while the southwest has become stronger. At present, sales in the eastern regions that have relaxed vehicle restrictions have not increased significantly, and the current lifting of the ban on pickup trucks does not have a very significant effect on boosting sales. |
