China Automobile Dealers Association: Automobile consumption index in December 2021 is 71.4

On January 6, 2022 , the China Automobile Dealers Association released the latest " Automobile Consumption Index " : the Automobile Consumption Index in December 2021 was 71.4 .

Since the beginning of winter, with the further drop in temperature, the increase in snow and ice weather, and the recurrence of the epidemic in many places, although the end-of-year shopping season is approaching, consumers' willingness to go to stores has not increased significantly compared with previous years. At the same time, the overall economic outlook is uncertain, consumer confidence has declined, and the end-of-year dealer promotions are weaker than in previous years. Consumers are not enthusiastic about buying cars, and it is expected that car sales in January will be basically the same as in December .

Automobile consumption index trend chart

Judging from the sub-indices that make up the automobile consumption index, the demand sub-index in December 2021 was 78.6 , a slight decrease from the previous month. The market demand in January did not fluctuate much compared with December .

Automobile Consumption Index – Demand Sub-Index

The store entry index in December 2021 was 81.3 , a slight increase from the previous month but no significant change.

Automobile Consumption Index – Store Entry Index Trend Chart

The purchasing sub-index in December 2021 was 82.7 , a slight decrease. It is expected that actual consumer purchases in January will be basically the same as in December .

Automobile Consumption Index – Purchase Sub-Index Trend Chart

In 2021 , the automotive industry experienced a chip shortage and multiple outbreaks of the epidemic, and consumers' overall consumer confidence declined. With the support of the country's " stabilizing growth and promoting consumption " policy, the automotive industry overcame the impact of chip shortages and the epidemic and maintained stable market growth. Judging from the automobile sales data, from January to November 2021 , the cumulative sales of automobiles were 23.115 million, a year-on-year increase of 3% , which was basically the same as in 2019 , and an annual increase of about 2% is expected . The recovery of the automobile market exceeded expectations, giving everyone hope and confidence that the market will bottom out and enter an upward channel. With the continuous improvement of chip supply and the further effective control of the epidemic, China's automobile market will gradually recover. According to the survey data of dealers, more than half of dealers expect that automobile sales will increase by about 5% in 2022 .

Appendix: Automobile Consumption Index Survey Description

As an industry organization, the China Automobile Dealers Association has successfully compiled and released two major indexes in the new and used car fields of the automobile distribution industry. Automobile manufacturers, parts manufacturers, dealer groups, banks, securities, consulting companies and other automobile-related companies widely use the above indicators as a reference for their operations and have received unanimous praise.

After years of development, the Chinese auto market has transitioned from a seller's market to a buyer's market, from product-centric to consumer-centric, and from supply-oriented to consumption-oriented, and the market's determinants have changed. However, at present, whether at the macro level or within the auto industry, the statistical data and indexes used are mostly from the perspective of producers, and there is almost no authoritative index from the perspective of consumers to reflect the operation of the auto industry.

To this end, the China Automobile Dealers Association, based on its previous experience in index compilation, has begun to compile an " Automobile Consumption Index " to reflect the operating trends of the automobile market from a consumption perspective.

The automobile consumption index starts from the process of consumers' car purchase intention, online search, car model attention, to the final car delivery and purchase process, and selects representative leading indicators to synthesize a comprehensive index. Specific indicators include consumer purchase intention, car purchase demand, channel dynamics, and automobile consumption environment data. Data sources include online consumer data, as well as offline data from consumers and dealers. Through model calculation, the automobile consumption index shows stable market leading nature, that is, the current data can predict the market sales trend in the next period.

The automobile consumption index is a comprehensive index greater than 0 , with July 2016 as the base period. If the index value is greater than 100 , it means that consumer demand is higher than the base period and the market sales volume in the next period will be high; if the index value is less than 100 , it means that market demand is lower than the base period and the market sales volume in the next period will be low.

The automobile consumption index has the characteristics of a large pattern, new perspective, full scope, full chain, authority and leading. It aims to reflect the operation status of the Chinese automobile market under the buyer's market, provide more sensitive and accurate market demand data, provide reference for the country, industry and enterprises to have a deeper understanding and interpretation of the market, and guide the healthy and benign development of the automobile industry.

The China Automobile Dealers Association has established the " China Automobile Industry Index Research Group " to be responsible for the compilation of the automobile industry index. It consists of a research group and a working group: the research group is jointly composed of the Industry Coordination Department of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the Automobile Marketing Research Branch (China Passenger Car Association), and the Imported Automobile Working Committee; the working group is composed of local dealer groups and dealer single store operation management leaders, who jointly participate in the construction and compilation of the China Automobile Industry Index and promote the application of the index in operation management.