Credit Suisse: Tesla's vehicle deliveries are expected to hit a new high in Q1 2022, with an expected year-on-year increase of 120,000 vehicles

Although the entire automotive industry is experiencing supply chain challenges, Tesla's car orders are also increasing rapidly thanks to soaring gasoline prices. Several analysts predict that Tesla's car deliveries in the first quarter of this year are expected to set a new record. A dozen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said that in the first three months of this year, Tesla may have delivered 309,158 vehicles worldwide, an increase of 40% compared with 184,800 vehicles delivered in the first quarter of 2021.

Tesla delivered 308,600 vehicles in the fourth quarter of last year, which was the company's previous highest quarterly delivery figure.

While profitability and financial health are critical, deliveries are one of Tesla's most closely watched performance metrics when a quarter ends, helping to support the company's financial results and widely viewed as a barometer of consumer demand for electric vehicles as consumers switch from gasoline-powered cars. Many major automakers are set to report U.S. sales results on Friday, but Tesla has not yet given a specific date for announcing first-quarter global sales.

Tesla's manufacturing capacity has only increased slightly since the fourth quarter of last year, as it recently began delivering cars produced at its Berlin, Germany, plant. Meanwhile, the Austin, Texas, plant may have also helped boost delivery figures, as some Model Y cars produced there have been spotted on the road, but it is not certain whether they have actually been delivered to customers and will be included in Tesla's first quarter 2022 delivery figures.

Tesla's deliveries have increased every quarter since the first quarter of 2020. Tesla's global deliveries currently rely mainly on two factories: the factory in Fremont, California, assembles Model S, Model X, Model 3 and Model Y. The Shanghai factory mainly produces Model 3 and Model Y. In addition to being sold in the Chinese market, many domestically produced cars are also exported to Europe.

Tesla has delivered the first batch of Model Y at its new factory near Berlin, Germany, and will hold a grand ceremony "Cyber ​​Rodeo" with 15,000 participants next week to celebrate the opening of its new factory in Austin.

Although Tesla is expected to set a new delivery record, the company has also encountered many challenges in the past quarter. For example, the suspension of production at the Shanghai factory may drag down Tesla's sales performance. New cars produced by the Shanghai factory accounted for more than half of Tesla's total car sales in 2021, exceeding the Fremont factory. The suspension of production may be an important reason for the first decline in Tesla's deliveries in two years.

“Given that Tesla’s deliveries typically ramp up sharply toward the end of a quarter, we view the Shanghai factory shutdown as a potential downside risk,” said Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy. He expects Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries to be around 307,000 vehicles, slightly lower than the fourth quarter of last year.

The strong delivery numbers could boost Tesla’s shares, extending a rally that has pushed its market value back above $1 trillion. The electric car maker has deftly navigated a supply chain crisis, enacted a stock split and hosted new factory openings that have helped bolster investor confidence.

Tesla's stock price closed at $1,084.59 per share on Thursday, up 0.65%. The stock has been on an upward trend recently, but the performance of the S&P 500 or automakers such as General Motors and Ford is not the same. Tesla's stock price performance is also much better than that of electric car startups Riyan or Lucid.