China Passenger Car Association: It is expected that the retail sales of narrow passenger cars will reach 1.32 million units in May 2022

Market Review in April

Affected by the epidemic, many places have maintained silent management, production of automobile OEMs and parts manufacturers has stagnated, logistics and transportation have been blocked, and the market has suffered a serious impact. In April , the narrow passenger car retail sales of the China Passenger Car Association were 1.044 million, a year-on-year decrease of 35.4% . Affected by the production shortage of some leading new energy manufacturers, the new energy market retail sales in April were 282,000 vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 36.5% , and the penetration rate remained at a high level of 27.1% .

The automotive industry chain is recovering slowly

Since the beginning of this month, Shanghai and surrounding areas have maintained strict epidemic prevention and control measures. Although enterprises have begun to gradually resume closed production and point-to-point resumption of work, the capacity utilization rate is low and it is difficult to return to normal levels before the end of May , and the pressure on the supply side remains unabated. In addition, there are currently many restrictions on cross-provincial travel in Shanghai, and logistics and transportation are recovering slowly. As a major city in China's automobile industry, the supply of parts companies in Shanghai will be blocked, which will have a lasting impact on downstream vehicle production. In the new energy market, production and supply have rebounded compared with last month, and it is expected that the new energy market will still maintain a market penetration rate of about 25% this month .

1. Manufacturer sales trends

In mid- May , the overall passenger car market discount rate was about 12.9% , slightly higher than the previous month ( 13.2% ). According to the May retail target survey, manufacturers accounting for about 80% of the overall market saw a year-on-year decline of more than double digits. Preliminary estimates show that the narrow passenger car retail market this month is around 1.32 million vehicles, down 19.0% year-on-year .

2. Weekly trend estimation

The average daily sales of major manufacturers in the first and second weeks were -21% and -22% respectively . The auto market has been affected by the continued epidemic and has declined significantly. It is expected that the market will recover in the third week, driven by the resumption of work and production in Shanghai and surrounding areas, with a year-on-year growth of about -12% , and a year-on-year decline of about -19% in the fourth week . It is estimated that retail sales in May will reach 1.32 million vehicles.

3. The auto market continues to be affected by the epidemic

Affected by the frequent outbreaks of local epidemics in many places, the epidemic prevention work has entered the comprehensive prevention and control stage of " scientific prevention and control, dynamic zeroing " . Residents passively or actively reduce travel, and travel and service consumption demand has declined significantly. From January to April this year , the total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 0.2% year-on-year , of which the total retail sales of automobiles decreased by 8.4% year-on-year. Since late April , Guangdong, Jilin, Zhejiang, Shandong and other places have gradually introduced automobile promotion fee policies to slightly support the auto market. The supply of the new energy market has improved month-on-month from the previous month. With the launch of many new products, it will continue to maintain a steady growth trend this year. The survey results of the China Automobile Dealers Association show that the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers at the end of April was 1.91 , an increase of 9.1% from the previous month . The number of terminal closures is still large, and sales have been greatly affected. At the same time, the production capacity of the main engine factory has not yet fully recovered, and there are structural supply constraints at the terminal.

At present, the prevention and control of the epidemic in Shanghai and surrounding areas has initially shown results, but the pressure to prevent a rebound is still high. Clustered and sporadic outbreaks have occurred in many provinces, including Beijing, Tianjin, Sichuan, Henan, and Jiangxi. Local governments have immediately adopted strict control measures, which have had a certain impact on normal production and life, and also had an impact on terminal automobile consumption.

In summary, the retail sales volume of narrow passenger cars in May is expected to be 1.32 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 19.0% .