WeChat "Mini Programs" are going to kill apps? Entrepreneurs may not think so

"What is a mini program? A mini program is an application that can be used without downloading. It realizes the dream of making applications 'out of reach'. Users can open the application by scanning or searching. It also embodies the concept of 'use it and leave it'. Users don't have to worry about installing too many applications. Applications will be everywhere and available at any time, but there is no need to install or uninstall them."

This is what Zhang Xiaolong said on WeChat Moments at 23:00 on September 22.

In the comment section of Zhang Xiaolong's speech, Tencent's Ma Huateng was the first to leave a message saying, "Apple not allowing the use of app numbers may be a good thing." On the evening of September 22, some WeChat public accounts received an invitation letter from WeChat officials for internal testing: developers can quickly develop a small program in WeChat. This new feature, originally named "App Number", which was brewing at the beginning of the year, was all over the screen of friends the night it was launched for internal testing. Some people in the Internet circle couldn't help but sigh and said, WeChat's "Mini Program" is here, do we still need to develop apps?

▌ With mini programs, you can download fewer apps

Judging from the screenshots that have been circulated, various types of "mini-program" applications will appear on the "Discover" page of WeChat. Under the category of "Application Number" added below "Shopping" and "Games", Hammer Calendar, Ink Weather, Didi Chuxing, Maoyan Movies, etc. all appear in the screenshots.

Currently, when you click on the “Discover” page of WeChat, “Shake”, “People Nearby”, “Message in a Bottle”, etc. will appear on the page. In the future, after WeChat’s mini-programs move from internal testing to large-scale launch, these functions are expected to disappear from the “Discover” page.

As early as January this year, Zhang Xiaolong, the "Father of WeChat", said that he would develop an application number to provide app functions for users. This has two benefits for users: first, fewer apps can be downloaded to the phone, and the software that is not opened frequently can be replaced by WeChat's "Mini Programs"; second, when changing phones, there is no need to reinstall the software.

After more than seven months of preparation, the new function of this mini program has finally appeared.

▌ APPs are rampant, most of them are "zombies"

The birth of WeChat "Mini Programs" occurred when there were hundreds of millions of APPs.

On September 22, at the Tencent Global Partner Conference, Zhou Tao, general manager of Tencent Mobile Application Platform, said that the daily distribution volume of App Store exceeded 200 million, and the number of APP access reached 3.5 million, ranking first in the distribution industry. However, among the millions of APPs, the traffic growth rate of most APPs (long-tail applications) cannot keep up with the growth rate of quantity. Except for instant messaging applications such as WeChat and mobile QQ, which have a penetration rate of more than 40%, the penetration rates of other categories such as navigation, shopping, life, video, music, etc. are all below 40%.

What does this mean? There are a large number of apps in various app stores, but there is not enough motivation to stimulate users to download them. Nowadays, the cost of acquiring a user for an app is getting higher and higher. Some analysts say that in the early days, it might cost 2 yuan to get an app download, then 20 yuan, and now it is more than 200 yuan.

However, with the cost of acquiring APP customers increasing, changes in the mobile phone market have also made APP entrepreneurs helpless. "The bonus of new phones is disappearing, and the entire mobile phone market has entered a replacement market." Zhou Tao gave a set of data. In 2015, the proportion of users who replaced their phones was 75%, and this year it has reached 88%. The proportion of users who bought a phone for the first time was only 12%. Every change of phone means the loss of APP users. Some APP developers may spend a lot of money on acquiring users, but once a user changes his phone, he will not think of downloading an APP unless he really needs it.

In addition, the time interval between users changing their mobile phones is getting shorter and shorter. In 2015, users might change their mobile phones every year and a half, but now they change their phones every year or so. If an APP cannot occupy the minds of users before they change their phones, it will lose users after the change. The user churn rate may even reach 40%.

▌ Is it still necessary for entrepreneurs to make APPs?

On the one hand, WeChat launched the internal testing of mini-programs, and on the other hand, APPs are facing survival difficulties. Under such circumstances, is it still necessary for entrepreneurs to make apps?

"Mini programs are still unknown. They are estimated to be similar to HTML5 in terms of interaction and cannot perform complex tasks." Cong Xixing, CEO of Pilaipiwang, said that he would not give up on the development of apps. "Our B-side customers all use WeChat, but it is difficult for a mini program to provide more professional support for these customers."

Lin Songtao, vice president of Tencent's mobile business group responsible for mobile application distribution and open business, said that when WeChat official accounts came out, many people said that this would end APPs, but now there are many entrepreneurs who have both official accounts and APPs. From APPs, official accounts, to mini-programs, or using robots to interact and talk to replace the way users download apps, no matter which model, it is difficult to meet the needs of entrepreneurs in the short term. "We just provide entrepreneurs with more choices."

Another entrepreneur told reporters that the uncertainty of mini programs also lies in the fact that a lot of data remains on the WeChat platform rather than in their own hands. In addition, they may be blocked at any time, just like many WeChat public accounts may be blocked by the platform. This is a point of concern for many APP entrepreneurs.

▌ The real test is the app store model

WeChat's mini-programs save users the trouble of downloading and uninstalling apps, and this is not the first of its kind. In fact, Baidu also launched "direct number" in the early years, which allows users to directly complete their needs on the Baidu page after searching for their needs, but this function has never been developed.

At the Apple Autumn Conference just past, Apple released iOS 10 and called it a "very important version". The most important change is the new function of iMessage, which can send animated bubble conversations and chat application plug-ins, etc. This is considered by the outside world that Apple may be creating an important market besides the App Store. Major brands, game companies, etc. can realize their IP and products in iMessage, such as launching sticker packs and iMessage applications for free or for a fee.

Judging from Apple's actions, the relationship between Apple's App Store and i Message is similar to that between Tencent's App Store and WeChat Mini Programs. From another perspective, the model of the App Store is also facing new challenges. In July this year, Alibaba acquired Wandoujia, and it was reported that the transaction price was only US$200 million. Recently, Baidu has also begun to divest its APP distribution business and plans to sell 91 Wireless' iOS business, which mainly distributes and operates mobile applications for iOS devices.

Tencent's App Store, the industry leader in APP distribution, is also facing pressure to upgrade. For example, the new version of App Store has upgraded its positioning from guiding users to download apps to a platform for solving user needs. Users do not need to download apps, but can solve their needs within the App Store app. For example, if they want to listen to a song, they can just shout into the microphone and the song will be sent to them immediately. In the future, similar scenarios can be realized for taking a taxi, buying movie tickets, etc.

Currently in the APP distribution market, the market share of Tencent App Store, 360 Mobile Assistant, Baidu Mobile Assistant, etc. is expected to exceed 80%, but it is obvious that the traditional guided download model is gradually becoming outdated. How to meet user needs among massive APPs while also bringing traffic and usage efficiency to APP developers is a new challenge.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.