I didn’t expect that autonomous driving would affect the motorcycle business

It’s no secret that self-driving technology will bring big changes to the automotive industry. But it may also change the business of selling motorcycles in a very different way. This change can be attributed to the increased safety that self-driving technology will bring. When cars are mostly self-driving, there will be far fewer accidents that kill motorcycle riders than there are today, which will change the minds of potential users who are eager to ride motorcycles but are afraid to buy them because of safety concerns.

This year, about 1,000 motorcyclists will die in the United States in accidents caused by other motor vehicles turning left. Cars traveling in the same direction as a motorcyclist often do not notice the motorcycle on the left trying to pass. Oncoming vehicles turning left often do not notice the oncoming motorcycle or misjudge its speed.

Self-driving vehicles, in theory, will not make either of these mistakes. First, they will be able to use their sensors and radar to "see" the motorcycle in question and warn the driver, or actively prevent the vehicle from cutting off the motorcycle's path.

But this is just the beginning of an improvement. Eventually, motorcycles will be able to "talk" to all other vehicles on the road, constantly informing them of their location, direction of travel, and speed.

Once every aspiring motorcyclist realizes that a car driver on the road is not a safety threat to him, motorcycle sales will rise in some places. Xavier Mosquet, a senior partner at Boston Consulting Group, believes that the increase in motorcycle sales will mainly occur in countries such as the United States where people enjoy riding for fun, and in countries such as China and India where motorcycles are used as a low-cost and fast way to get around.

In contrast, in places like Europe, where motorcycles are often a good way to get around traffic jams, sales of motorcycles could fall if self-driving cars arrive in large numbers. If traffic becomes more organized as smart driving becomes mainstream, there will be less curious onlookers and congestion caused by traffic accidents, and less need to jump on a motorcycle to get through congested areas.

Mosquet believes that the specific situation will depend on people's consumer psychology and regional differences in motorcycles. However, for motorcycles and the companies that make them, the large-scale arrival of self-driving cars will not happen overnight. Yamaha Motor, which is developing a motorcycle-riding robot called Motobot, estimates that self-driving motorcycles will be available at least ten years later than self-driving cars.

But some automated driving functions will soon help motorcycle riders - BMW envisions a system that will show the road ahead in a map-like manner and warn the rider of upcoming curves and road conditions. If the motorcycle calculates that it is going too fast for the terrain ahead, it will warn the rider.

The price of making cars safer is that the technology may make driving less fun. But a motorcycle is not about getting from point A to point B, but about enjoying the ride all the time. Driving a motorcycle will still have the pleasure of control. Driving a car, on the other hand, may become about checking emails from time to time or catching up on video games (such as Game of Thrones).

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.