Six key words to interpret the 2016 mobile phone industry. All you care about is here

2016 is coming to an end:

I was penniless on New Year's Day.

Development to nothing now

From nothing to heavily in debt

I am who I am, fireworks of different colors

I am who I am. I get angry when I see myself now.

Very good, this rhythm of self-abandonment is very suitable for the mood of year-end summary, and it is also very appropriate for this year's mobile phone industry keywords. If you want to summarize and look forward to this year's drama-like news, in fact, it can be summarized in two words - negative.

First, let’s take a look at the major events:

Samsung's flagship Note 7 ends in a bang; iPhone continues to lead the world in profits

Curved screen, borderless, and many other high-tech treasures; VR concept manufacturers all say it’s good after using it

OPPO and vivo are gradually encircling the city; LeTV, Coolpad and 360 are in a sincere relationship

LeEco's year-end empty city plan; Sony and HTC have difficulty leaving their mark

Sharp and Nokia are back to life; Lenovo, Moto and ZUK are in a state of distress;

There are many things to watch in 2016. Apart from the excitement, we will pick out some key points to talk about.

Battery issues: The ice and fire of product development

I mentioned two sets of keywords: the spontaneous combustion of Note7 and the dead iPhone 6s

In the former world: spontaneous combustion, testing, rumor refutation, recall, introduction of solutions, spontaneous combustion again, testing, global recall; the whole process lasted two months, and there is still no conclusion. It is just that the problem seems to be the battery.

Compared to the former, the iPhone 6s was less explosive. First, the protagonist of this incident had been released for more than a year, and second, "automatic shutdown" sounds less emotional than spontaneous combustion. However, due to the wide range of impact and complex causes, this incident lasted for almost a month. The most important thing is: the conclusion of the two incidents is that the spearhead is more or less pointed to the battery.

How do you describe the feeling? You prepared roses, tickets for a stage play, a small cake, a small surprise, and a small umbrella. Although the goddess showed up as scheduled, some props were not used in the end. As for why - guess?

Putting the two together is intended to explain the following issue: battery and space. According to a more reliable rumor, the Note 7 caught fire because there was not enough space for the battery compartment; it is also rumored that the iPhone had a problem with the power management module and could not identify the power level.

It makes sense to blame the battery - the capacity of mobile phone batteries has increased 20 times in the past decade, but the technical principles have remained almost the same. Relying on compressing the space of the internal safety structure in exchange for more electrolyte and greater space utilization can almost be said to be a rather risky idea.

According to relevant experts, "battery technology innovation must go through at least two stages: first, a feasible and stable new solution is needed; second, based on the first stage, it will take about five years to achieve observation, mass production, and cost control." But unfortunately, both the "new fuel cells" and "graphene" in the news are still in the first stage.

Therefore, if we want to continue to increase the battery life and stability of the phone, there is only one thing we can do - compress the space for other components. This naturally leads to the second topic - the popularity of AMOLED screens.

Screen: AMOLED brings two changes to mobile phones

From the beginning of the year to the end of the year, OV, Meizu, Huawei, and Xiaomi have all begun to use AMOLED screens; in people's minds, the obvious advantage of AMOLED screens is that the screen is self-luminous, which directly brings two obvious benefits - 1. Dark display is more energy-efficient; 2. Without the backlight layer, the screen thickness will be further reduced.

We often talk about these two points, but how much space can an AMOLED screen save? The exact data is: about 1 mm. Calculated based on the average thickness of 80 mm for mobile phones today, this item can save 1/80 of the space. Every inch of land is valuable, so it is foreseeable that AMOLED will become more popular in the future. For example, the rumor that the iPhone will use AMOLED screen next year has been said for almost half a year.

Another major advantage of AMOLED is the curved surface. Nowadays, mobile phones are basically straight, and if you want to create a concave shape, a curved screen is of course the most worry-free choice. If you don't believe it, let us silently recite a string of spells to let you feel it: Samsung S7 edge, Xiaomi Note 2, Huawei Mate 9 series, vivo Xplay6, a flagship rumored by Meizu.

AMOLED has many advantages, but its disadvantages are also obvious. For mobile devices, pixel decay and aging have basically been overcome, but in the past period of time, AMOLED mass production has been quite difficult.

By chance, LCD was once very popular. Although AMOLED has obvious advantages for small-screen devices, it is not so good for large screens (large monitors and TVs). The direct consequence is that there are not many manufacturers who insist on AMOLED. International manufacturers including Samsung and LG started earlier and solved the production capacity problem at the beginning of this year. As for domestic manufacturers, AUO, BOE, Everdisplay and Visionox only solved the yield and core technology problems in 2016.

Therefore, AMOLED will be more widely popularized in 2017.

AV/VR: Not as popular as before, but with a bright future

This year is the first year of VR. Sony and HTC's all-in-one VR game consoles are officially on sale, and mobile phone manufacturers are flocking to portable VR devices. Speaking of AR, the Pokemon mobile game has become a hot topic in the world. Having said so much, I still want to ask, have you figured out the concepts of VR and AR?

People's enthusiasm for VR and AR is well-documented. In the late 1960s and early 1990s, the concept of virtual reality was once the "first year". However, after the new technology was implemented, people found that there was still a gap between the imagined "virtual reality" and the real technology, and the enthusiasm also dissipated.

However, we cannot erase the historical significance of this VR/AR. Compared with the YY of the previous crazes, this VR all-in-one machine has brought an immersive virtual reality experience to a certain extent. You put on the helmet, with visual display and sound, it can take you into a "virtual scene" similar to that described in novels; based on this experience, PC and game companies also have relatively complete game equipment for you to try. As the seed of virtual reality, this has gone much further than the previous ones.

AR is more like a tool, just like the glasses in Dragon Ball that can show "Are you a warrior with a combat power of 100 million, or a weakling?", adding some auxiliary images or data in real scenes. This device and VR have similar functions in technical training, medical assistance, teaching operations, and life management. At present, both have technical foundations, implementation scenarios and needs. So it is destined that in 2017, neither of them will be a flash in the pan.

Of course, as a keyword in the mobile phone industry, portable VR devices are still just "toys" with extremely imperfect experience. Computing power, display power, battery life and heating issues make it difficult to compete with all-in-one VR. This may be the biggest bubble left by the VR industry in 2016.

LeEco's Empty City Strategy at the End of the Year: A Profit Pain Point for Android Manufacturers

In late November and early December, LeTV became another hot topic in the mobile phone industry. There were constant rumors of defaulting on funds to channels and suppliers, tight capital chain, and turmoil in the top management. In the end, LeTV confirmed the following: 1. The capital chain was indeed tight; 2. The mobile phones were sold at a loss, and the more they sold, the bigger the funding gap would be. By the end of the year, LeTV had sold 20 million units.

It's not hard to understand. According to the Q3 financial report, Apple took 91% of the profits in the mobile phone industry, and the remaining profits were taken by Huawei, OPPO, and vivo. For the rest, it has always been the norm for Android phone manufacturers to sell at a loss.

Meizu raised a similar question a year ago. As luck would have it, after receiving investment from Alibaba, Meizu's sales also soared to 20 million units a year. After that, Meizu's 2016 plan was: not to increase sales, but to develop in all aspects. What does this comprehensive mean? To complete offline channels and inventory, improve maintenance channels and experience - to improve the offline system.

Obviously, there seem to be only two brands that can reach this level by relying on "Internet thinking" and using users and system services to realize revenue: Apple and Xiaomi. The former's iOS ecosystem is difficult to replicate, and the latter's model of relying on MIUI and game payment is not something that can be achieved overnight. Therefore, the offline models of OPPO and vivo have become a hot topic this year, and will be the same next year.

OPPO and vivo: Can the channel model be copied?

The channel model of OPPO and vivo has become a hot topic in 2016. In the third quarter alone, the two companies' shipments in the Chinese market reached 20.1 million and 19.2 million, accounting for 20.1% and 19.2% of the shipments respectively; at the same time, they each cut 2% of the total global mobile phone profits (Apple accounted for 91%), which can be said to be a double harvest in terms of quantity and quality. The reasons for their success are analyzed externally, on the one hand, whether this model can be replicated, and on the other hand, whether OPPO and vivo can maintain this trend of development.

From an emotional point of view, OV has invested heavily in TV variety show advertising and celebrity endorsements. It has a full range of prime-time variety shows on satellite TV, and each product launch has a "launch spokesperson", which are essential means for both companies. In addition, deep channel development is another feature of OV. Hundreds of thousands of stores cover a series of issues such as new product stocking, underwriting, brand promotion, product shopping guides, and user cultivation.

However, timing is still an indispensable factor, just as Weibo's second rise is inseparable from the "influx of a new wave of netizens from third- and fourth-tier cities", OV also happened to catch up with the same time point. Thinking from another perspective, OV's model will still be sustainable next year, because after all, the user base will not change overnight after being cultivated; but it seems a bit naive to want to replicate a new brand with the same model.

Nokia and Sharp: Selling nostalgia? Or resurrecting?

Sharp's return, Nokia's return, these news are bound to attract attention from old fans at the end of the year. It is undeniable that both of them did have many "emotional fans" in China, but if we analyze it carefully, we find that this return may just be wishful thinking for some people.

Take Sharp as an example. Currently, the Weibo account of Sharp mobile phones belongs to Qun Yang Technology (Tianjin) Co., Ltd. The shareholder of this company is Kangfa Technology, a channel agency under Foxconn. In addition, Foxconn has completed the acquisition of Sharp before, and the suspected new phone is completely OEM-level, so it is not an exaggeration to say that it is a private label phone.

The same situation also occurred with Nokia. As a newcomer in the mobile phone industry, HMD, which currently bought Nokia, does not have much experience in mobile phone manufacturing and research and development. Therefore, the production of mobile phones is contracted to the manufacturer Fuji, and the operating system of smartphones is handed over to Google. In the context of deep optimization of domestic mobile phone UI, accelerated mobile phone research and development, and extremely low sales profits. Whether Nokia is capable of making good products and whether it can be "popular and popular" is a question mark for all of us.

Written at the end:

Since ancient times, deep affection has never stopped flowing, so I put all these big and small things together and sorted out a series of bright and dark story lines. However, at the end of writing, I found that there are still many stories that have not been fully completed, such as the popularity of mobile payment, the domestic 5G technology overtaking, and the sales of Apple Wtach. Of course, how can a story that is still in progress be simply summarized?

Besides, if I write down everything, I don’t think I will get angry anymore.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.