Can Windows tablets make a comeback?

Are you still using a tablet computer? Has the scene of everyone having a tablet and tapping it happily gradually faded?

Recently, IDC released the 2016 Global Tablet Computer Annual Sales Analysis Report. The report shows that the overall sales of the tablet computer industry are poor and the decline is still continuing.

Decline: Yes, this is the main theme shown in the report. Business is not good, which is a common problem faced by tablet manufacturers around the world. Last year, global tablet sales fell by 15.6% year-on-year to 178.4 million units. Among the sales of less than 180 million units, the three major camps are the well-known Android, IOS and Windows series, and the first two camps continue to decline. However, bright spots have also emerged. The Windows camp, which has lacked a sense of presence for many years, has seen an increase, from 8.5 million units to 10.1 million units, an increase of 19%, and now occupies 16% of the market share.

With the development of larger screens of smartphones and more portable PCs, and the fact that traditional tablets can only provide entertainment services, the positioning of tablets in the current market has become increasingly awkward.

The iPad has a bad year

I still remember Jobs holding up the iPad in the cheers of the audience in early 2010. It can be said that the iPad really opened a new computer era for us. In that era when mobile phone screens were generally small, and laptops were too heavy and did not have touch screens, the iPad quickly occupied most of the market as soon as it was released, and at the same time led to the rapid development of the entire tablet computer market.

After many years, iPad is still the sales champion of the entire tablet market. However, the size of the entire market is far less than that of the past. In addition, the iPhone screen is getting bigger and bigger, and the Mac is getting smaller and lighter. The iPad seems to have become a bit dispensable and gradually faded from people's sight.

According to the latest data released by Apple, iPad still tops the list with a global market share of 24.7%, but its sales in the fourth quarter of 2016 were only 13.1 million units, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 19%. In the fourth quarter of 2013, iPad shipments once reached 26 million units, which means that three years later, sales have only been half of that level.

In the face of the iPad's continued decline, Apple CEO Tim Cook seems to be still confident about the future of the iPad product line. In a recent interview, Cook said that the iPad product line will usher in "exciting new products." It is reported that Cook's confidence comes from the high satisfaction of users with the iPad series of products.

However, facing the decline in global tablet demand and sales, it is impossible to say that Apple is not worried at all. When Apple released the new Macbook Pro last year, the media asked why the new Macbook Pro did not have a touch screen. Apple said that the touch screen was not well adapted to the new Macbook Pro and did not meet Apple's required user experience, so it was not installed.

I wonder if you are satisfied with this answer? Especially those who have already used Macbook, are they a little disappointed? Dongdong Notes analyzed that the new Macbook Pro does not have a touch screen because Apple wants to better protect the iPad product line. If the Macbook series products are equipped with touch screens, it will undoubtedly further squeeze the iPad's living space.

In order to solve the existing crisis in the tablet market, Apple has been trying, including launching a larger iPad Pro, compatible with Apple Pencil and keyboard accessories. But to some extent, when iPad serves as a laptop substitute, software is a major flaw. Most competing products can run mature Windows programs, while iPad can only run mobile applications. Although software developers such as Microsoft and Adobe have launched lightweight versions of popular services on iPad, these applications are not as easy to use as their desktop versions on iPad.

Thomas Hussen, principal analyst at Forrester, said: "On iOS, you can't really make a spreadsheet. Yes, you can use Excel, but it's really challenging without a mouse." Mouse lovers must be nodding their heads at this statement.

The iPad, which is more entertainment-oriented, is experiencing the pain of the entire tablet market's transformation from an entertainment tool to a productivity tool. Although Apple itself is constantly making new attempts, such as the larger iPad Pro, which is a representative of its transformation to a productivity tool, this attempt is not very successful in terms of current market performance.

The Windows tablet that finally came to fruition

From the initial Windows 8 to the later Windows RT, Windows tablets, which had never seen any improvement, finally made a comeback after years of dormancy. At a time when the entire market is constantly transforming into productivity tools, two-in-one tablets like Microsoft Surface, with detachable keyboards and screens, are becoming more and more popular among users, so more and more brands and manufacturers have launched similar products (such as Huawei's M series). Relying on the inherent advantages of Windows, Microsoft seems to have finally reaped the rewards of its hard work in the current era of market transformation.

The latest report from US market research firm Strategy Analytics shows that the widespread popularity of Windows tablets in the enterprise market will help Microsoft become the fastest growing manufacturer in 2019.

Strategy Analytics believes that Microsoft's important growth momentum comes from Windows 10, which will be attractive to corporate users. Peter King, director of tablet and touchscreen strategy analysis at the agency, said: "Windows 10 will provide a solid foundation to help the entire ecosystem grow. Windows tablets will grab a large share of Android tablets in the low-end market and compete with iPad in the high-end market."

With the rise of Windows 10, the global market demand for 2-in-1 devices may be picking up. Because 2-in-1 devices can meet most of the demand pain points: they are lighter, and can be detached and reassembled to cope with different application scenarios. Regarding the strong rise of 2-in-1 devices, IDC analyst Bouchard said, "People buy 2-in-1 devices because they like large-size displays and keyboards. People want the convenience brought by large-size screens and keyboards, rather than just using tablets for browsing and consuming content." From this sentence, we can see the development trend of the tablet market in the future.

IDC also said that 2-in-1 devices accounted for 8% of the global PC market in 2015, and this proportion will rise to 30% in 2020. At the same time, industry experts also believe that with the sluggish tablet market, the market for 2-in-1 tablet PCs will be considerable in the future.

In July 2016, when Dell announced its decision to stop selling Android tablets and focus on 2-in-1 devices based on the Windows platform, a Dell spokesperson said in an email: "We are seeing an increasing popularity of 2-in-1 devices. These devices bring the performance of a PC and the mobility of a tablet."

The inevitability of the transformation trend of productivity tools

The industry can only treat the shrinking tablet market with a more rational mindset. Every update of tablets, led by the iPad, seems to be a minor improvement. Apart from the enhancement of audio and video entertainment functions, there seems to be no substantial progress. At the same time, this also proves that the tablet industry lacks disruptive innovation.

While the entire market is facing difficulties, a number of Windows tablet products represented by Microsoft's Surface series have been able to break through the siege. On the one hand, this proves that detachable tablets may become a new growth trend. On the other hand, it also shows users' expectations for tablet office performance.

And with the continuous improvement of hardware level, the continuous improvement of supporting facilities, and the continuous enrichment and optimization of mobile software, tablet computers that are infinitely close to PCs may become the main theme of tablet computers in the next few years. By then, those PCs that focus on being light and portable may face the embarrassment of today's tablet computers.

We cannot judge whether the tablet market has gradually become a sunset industry, but it is obvious that it is experiencing the pain of transformation. Whether it is market segmentation or industry upgrading, for players in this field, they can stand out in the market dilemma only by constantly adapting to market needs, catering to user preferences, and improving user experience. As for the next epoch-making leadership and innovation of PC, we may have to wait until augmented reality technology matures and becomes popular.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.