Faced with the cold winter of VR market, Sony, Samsung, Google and HTC decided to join forces to keep warm

Looking back at 2016, the term VR suddenly appeared in people's vision like mushrooms after rain. After a period of fermentation, VR attracted the attention of consumers with its explosive growth. At the same time, VR was also favored by a large number of "Chinese-style" speculators. Therefore, when faced with VR with sufficient funds and broad development prospects, people seemed to selectively ignore its immature technology, and the hidden dangers behind the prosperity of the VR market were thus foreshadowed.

Has the “first year of VR” become a get-out-of-jail-free card for manufacturers?

As we all know, 2016 was nicknamed "the first year of VR" by netizens. It was in this year that VR entered people's vision, and it was also in this year that VR ascended to the altar. But can the term "first year", which symbolizes hope and the future, become a death-proof card for manufacturers? It should be noted that from smart wearables to H5 web games, any new technology that has some development prospects in a year will be given the term "first year" to show encouragement. But we all know what happened afterwards. It was "indistinguishable from the crowd" within one or two years, and "disappeared" after three to five years. We don't know whether the term "first year" represents "immaturity" or "double standards".

At one time, almost all major companies rushed into this "fertile land", and all training institutions were happy to add courses corresponding to VR technology, as if mankind was about to enter the brave new world of "tubes in the back of the brain" described by Huxley. However, every time I see the various "domestic VR" devices on Taobao, I can't help but wonder, are we putting our time and resources in the wrong place?

Correspondingly, with the wild growth of "domestic VR", the market has formed a special way of operating it. VR has not only spread rapidly in the market of China's third- and fourth-tier cities, but has also become a "gift" in the form of visiting relatives and friends and company awards. This change was unexpected, but this slightly deformed development method has become a unique market effect. It has to be said that it is a kind of helplessness. This phenomenon of needing to use low-end products to expand the consumer market is not only the helplessness of practitioners, but also more like a compromise of the entire VR industry to the requirements of manufacturers.

Domestic VR devices are popping up like mushrooms after rain

Industry giants who avoid risks by "grouping together to make fire"

On December 8, 2016, the Global Virtual Reality Association (GVR A) was established by Google, HTC, Samsung, Sony , Oculus and Acer. This seemingly risk-averse approach seems to be telling the entire VR industry that this winter may be very "cold". At the same time, according to SuperData's data analysis, the total output value of the VR market in 2016 was less than half of the expected value. This unsatisfactory result seems to be a feedback from the market to the VR industry, warning investors that if they continue to "paddle" in the VR industry, they might as well retreat as soon as possible. After all, what is the difference between a product that lacks competitiveness and a salted fish? This kind of product is destined to not find "gold" in the market.

At the same time, with the closure of many VR experience stores, it seems to prove that the VR industry has cooled down from top to bottom. Considering Apple, which has not taken any action so far, I am afraid that the joint action of the five giants is really to find a way for themselves to step down smoothly.

SuperData's 2016 market forecast

Weak follow-up support will lead to disaster

After the explosive growth of VR production capacity in 2016, we finally saw the fatigue shown by the VR industry in 2017. For third-party application manufacturers, a series of problems such as unsatisfactory application visual experience, scarcity of high-quality content, and low application freedom will become the direction of future efforts to overcome. How to find a balance between "quality" and "quantity" may become an important driving force for the VR industry to truly prosper.

On the other hand, whether it is HTC VIVE, Oculus or PSVR. As the leaders in the VR industry, they have all encountered some problems in sales. For these industry leaders, problems such as "insufficient production capacity" and "slow application development" have become "roadblocks" on the road to VR development. Even Sony, as the industry benchmark, still cannot get rid of the embarrassing situation of positioning PSVR as a home game console like PlayStation.

In fact, we can clearly understand that the development of a new technology requires a long period of precipitation. When the production technology and the application resources provided by third-party manufacturers become more mature, a complete industrial chain can be considered to have taken shape. So will the hasty actions of many manufacturers this time lead to the destruction of the VR industry? Or can it help VR technology survive? Perhaps the answer will be obtained at the next Virtual Reality Developer Conference.

"Death Tango" on the edge of the cliff

Compared with other emerging technologies, virtual reality technology has a broader development prospect and higher exposure, but at the same time it has lost the period of precipitation that can make the technology leap. At this time, the VR industry is like a dancer dancing on the edge of a cliff, and one careless move will lead to crushing.

Nowadays, the market's profit-seeking nature seems to have destined the number of people working in the VR field to increase, and the amount of investment will also increase. But don't worry, this impact is a sign of VR returning to normal. After eliminating the excessive bubbles in the market, facing the cooling market, it will promote the more sustainable and healthy development of VR. It is not impossible that the VR industry will become more stable in the future.

So how can we ensure that the timeliness and practicality of VR technology are not affected by this incident? I hope that the actions taken after the establishment of GCR A will bring us more surprises.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.