Dongfeng is not in debt. Has the window of opportunity for OLED TV explosion arrived?

It is said in "The Art of War" that "the one who has the best of the three elements of time, place and people is the winner." Translated into "marching" means nothing more than the right time, place and people. If you have all three, you will be invincible. Applied to the field of television, the television industry has developed rapidly in recent years, and various emerging technologies such as 4K, 8K, QLED, OLED, etc. have emerged one after another. The subdivided TV categories named after display technology are gradually dominating the market. Among them, OLED TV has entered the accumulation stage since its launch four years ago. It has gradually moved towards popularization. It has already gathered the momentum of "the right time, place and people", waiting for the opportunity of full outbreak.

Time: From accumulation to popularization

Over the past decade, the TV industry has undergone several changes. From CRT TVs, plasma TVs to LCD TVs, and now to the thriving OLED TVs, the TV industry has gone through many changes. Currently, OLED TVs are developing rapidly and are beginning to occupy a large part of the public's vision. Liu Buchen, a senior observer of the home appliance industry, said: "People used to think that LCD TVs had already done well enough, until OLED TVs appeared in front of us, and we found that OLED TVs could be even better."

As we all know, OLED is a self-luminous source based on organic thin film. It has special advantages such as ultra-thin, ultra-wide viewing angle, flexible and rollable, high color gamut, fast response, blue light protection and healthy eye protection. It is recognized by the industry as the next generation mainstream display technology to replace LCD. According to AVC industry chain data, the global shipment of OLED panels is expected to reach 1.5 million pieces in 2017, a year-on-year increase of 78%. In addition, the production yield of OLED panels is also increasing simultaneously. Among them, the manufacturing yield of 55-inch 1080P full HD OLED TV panels has exceeded 85%, and the yield of 4K ultra-high-definition OLED TV panels has also reached 80%. This means that the gap between the yield of OLED panels and LCD panels is constantly narrowing, which will greatly reduce the production cost of OLED TV panels. It is particularly emphasized that OLED has achieved the stable yield that LCD has achieved in ten years in just two years, becoming the fastest mature technology in the history of display technology.

Industry insiders pointed out that OLED display technology developed vigorously in 2016, leading the entire TV industry through changes. This year, with the maturity of technology and cognition at the industrial, enterprise and consumer ends, the trend of OLED display technology may come, and the time for OLED TVs equipped with this technology to explode is ripe. According to data from IHS, from a global perspective, the annual growth rate of OLED TV shipments from 2016 to 2019 is expected to be over 70%, and the annual growth rate of shipment value is over 40%; it is expected that by 2020, OLED TV shipments will reach 5.2 million units, accounting for 2.1% of the market share, and shipment value will reach US$6.4 billion, accounting for 7.4% of the market share. After years of accumulation, OLED TV has developed to the gradual maturity and perfection of various links in the industry chain, and the full outbreak is just in time.

Geographical advantage: from China to the world

At present, OLED TV "bases" have spread all over the world. According to the reporter's understanding, the OLED TV companies that have been listed or are about to be listed include LG, Bang & Olufsen of Denmark, Vestel of Turkey, Loewe of Germany, Panasonic of Japan, and more than 10 companies such as Skyworth, Changhong, and Konka of China. Last year alone, 5 European companies joined or are about to join. Color TV companies around the world are developing OLED technology to varying degrees and creating OLED TV products.

At the same time, global consumers are also rapidly favoring OLED TVs. Specifically for the US TV market, the US Consumer Research Report's Best TV Survey shows that 65-inch OLED TVs account for 74% of sales in high-end products, while 55-inch accounts for as high as 77%. OLED has become a new high-end fashion trend. LGD, a major supplier of OLED panels, predicts that OLED TVs will occupy 50% of the global high-end TV market within three years.

In fact, foreign TV manufacturers have monopolized OLED display technology for a long time, and the development of China's local OLED technology has been restricted by others. But just last year, Skyworth, BOE and HiSilicon jointly released the first OLED TV independently developed in China, breaking this monopoly in one fell swoop. The Chinese TV industry has completely bid farewell to the era of "lack of chips and screens", greatly accelerating the full popularization of OLED TVs in China.

Looking at the development of OLED TVs around the world, the Chinese market has risen the fastest, which is mainly due to the particularity of the development of the Chinese TV market. In 2013, Internet TV came out of nowhere. In just four years, it successfully changed the development pattern of the Chinese TV market, and the competition in the market became more intense. The success of Internet TV and the low-price competition of LCD TVs have continuously refreshed the lowest market price of TV products, and the profit margins of color TV companies have been continuously compressed. This has forced traditional TV companies to seek new transformation paths. By relying on high-end innovative technology to compete with them, OLED TV technology has become the best bargaining chip for TV giants such as Skyworth and Konka to win. This is a technical height that no Internet TV brand can reach.

Spreading from China to the global color TV market, OLED TVs have become a "hot spot" for major color companies to conquer the market, and the explosion has the "geographical advantage".

Renhe: The integration of users, brands and panel manufacturers

The "human" advantages of OLED TVs are mainly reflected in three aspects. First, the current family living standards have greatly improved, and consumers' spending power and demand have shifted. In the field of television, users are eager to experience a higher level of viewing effects, and OLED TVs can just meet user needs. According to AVC consumer survey data, consumers believe that OLED TVs are more outstanding than LCD TVs in terms of display details and appearance design, which is in line with the image of high-end TV products. The promotion of OLED TV as the next generation of display technology has been recognized by consumers, and they have greater expectations for OLED TVs.

Secondly, OLED TV is positioned at the high end, and more and more mainstream color TV companies at home and abroad are standing by OLED display technology. TV giants such as Skyworth, Konka, and LG are determined to continue to increase their investment in OLED TVs and bet on the development of OLED TVs. It is particularly emphasized that as a leading company in the field of OLED TVs, Skyworth is unique in the healthy development of the OLED TV industry. From leading the world's first mass-produced 4K OLED organic TV, to launching the world's first AR TV, and then jointly launching China's first independently developed OLED TV with BOE and HiSilicon, Skyworth, the "TV leader", has established the industry status of "China's No. 1 OLED TV brand". Among them, Skyworth's world's first AR TV S9D integrates AR technology in OLED to bring users a new interactive experience and innovative audio-visual effects. In 2017, Skyworth plans to continue to enrich its OLED product line, and will launch the "wallpaper TV" with future significance, and continue to deepen innovative product iterations.

Finally, the continuous release of production capacity of OLED panel manufacturers has provided the premise for the explosion of OLED TV industry. In addition to many Chinese panel manufacturers such as BOE, Huaxing Optoelectronics, Everdisplay Optoelectronics, and Tianma, Japan's JDI, Sharp Sakai Factory and South Korea's SDI and LGD have all made collective efforts in OLED full-size R&D and production line layout. Among them, BOE's first OLED TV panel has been successfully trial-produced, and the tight supply of OLED panels will be alleviated in 2017.

The convergence of consumer perceptions, the collective efforts of global TV brands and the in-depth development of panel manufacturers are all "human" factors for the explosion of OLED TVs. "People's will, unity of knowledge and action" are all driving the widespread popularization of OLED TVs.

The only thing missing: price

Although OLED TVs have already gathered the three advantages of "right time, right place and right people", and seem to have everything ready, they are still a step away from a big explosion. Mr. Liu Tangzhi, Director and Vice President of Skyworth Group and President of Shenzhen Skyworth-RGB Electronics Co., Ltd., believes that "from the perspective of the industrial chain, the maturity of OLED product technology and market awareness, the conditions for OLED TVs to explode this year are basically in place. If there is still a step away, it should be price relaxation."

Although OLED TVs have many advantages, they have not been popularized in the market quickly because of their high prices, which are often tens of thousands of yuan, making them difficult for many ordinary consumers to accept. For a long time, the production process of large-size OLED panels was complicated and the yield rate was low. At the same time, only LG Display was the largest large-size OLED panel manufacturer in the world. Its annual production capacity of more than 1 million is still a drop in the bucket compared to the 260 million LCD panel shipments last year, and it is far from meeting market demand.

In order to further promote the development of OLED TV, China's OLED TV "master" Skyworth took the lead in reducing the price of OLED TVs, hoping to further increase sales and truly drive the overall outbreak of the OLED TV market. Since midnight on March 10, Skyworth has made a big move to adjust the price of OLED TVs nationwide, including online and offline channels. Among them, the price of 55-inch OLED TVs will be reduced by 3,000 yuan. Compared with the previous retail price of 13,999 yuan, the reduction is more than 20%, officially bringing mainstream-sized OLED TVs into the high-end market's psychological dividing line of 10,000 yuan. Skyworth said that this is only the first wave of OLED TV promotions. This year, more OLED TV products with new technologies and new specifications will be launched to provide users with a better experience. Skyworth's goal for OLED TVs this year is 200,000 units. Liang Zhenpeng, an economic observer of the home appliance industry, said that this means that after two years of market introduction, the OLED TV market will truly enter the popularization period in 2017.

It is worth mentioning that OLED TVs have entered the 10,000 yuan price range with a 20% drop, and the general background of competing with high-end LCD TVs with zero price difference is that LCD TVs are rising in price. In 2016, the global supply of LCD TV panels was tight, resulting in a continuous increase in panel prices. Since September last year, color TV companies have adjusted their pricing strategies, LCD TV prices have rebounded, and the price gap between OLED TVs and LCD TVs in the high-end market has further narrowed. According to AVC monitoring data, in the high-end color TV market of more than 10,000 yuan, the price ratio of OLED TVs to LCD TVs has dropped to 1.16 in January and February 2017.

Obviously, the price adjustment of Skyworth OLED TV will further impact the high-end market of LCD color TV. The high cost performance of OLED will attract more consumers to buy it, and the development of OLED TV industry will usher in a turning point. According to the forecast of CMM, the overall sales volume of OLED TV in the Chinese market last year was about 40,000 units, and it is expected to increase to about 180,000 units this year, which is a significant increase compared with 2016.

At the same time, the sales performance of Skyworth OLED TV in the first week after the price reduction further reflects the high popularity of OLED TV in the overall TV market. According to offline monitoring data from AVC, during the period from March 6 to March 12, Skyworth OLED TV sales increased by 351% year-on-year and 52% month-on-month compared with the week of New Year's Day. It can be seen that OLED panel technology is almost perfect, and OLED TVs that make up for the price shortcoming already have an absolute advantage in the competition at the 10,000 yuan price range. High-end OLED TVs represented by Skyworth are gradually approaching mainstream consumers in terms of price, which has made the prediction of OLED "explosion" become a reality.

Some industry insiders believe that Skyworth took the lead in adjusting prices at the right time. On the one hand, it set an example, and on the other hand, it played a misplaced card of "LCD price increase", making the price of OLED TV more attractive. This is a good market window period. In addition, it also sends a signal to the industry that when the market gradually matures, it is a "natural" thing for OLED TV prices to drop.

In summary, OLED has experienced years of accumulation, and its technology and cognition have become increasingly mature and perfect. Today, it has the natural advantages of time, place and people, but it has long been constrained by high prices and has not been able to achieve a large-scale outbreak. However, with the current situation of rising LCD TV prices, Skyworth has hit the head and caused the unexpected price drop of OLED TVs, which is bound to make some consumers with consumption power turn against it and welcome OLED TVs. In addition, the concerted efforts of the entire mid- and downstream industry chain will further promote the full popularization of OLED TVs. In 2017, the production capacity of OLED panels for large-size TVs will enter a period of rapid release. In the battle of the 10,000 yuan level, more OLED TV camps will organize a more competitive offensive!

There is no doubt that the window for OLED TVs to fully explode is coming.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.