Lithium iron phosphate is recovering, and the dominance of ternary materials may change

Recently, the market situation of the rise of ternary batteries and the decline of iron-lithium batteries has gradually changed. In July and August of this year, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries installed in pure electric passenger cars and special-purpose vehicles is "rising against the trend".

In August, my country's power battery production totaled 6.69GWh, of which ternary battery production was 3.78GWh, accounting for 56.51% of the total production, and lithium iron phosphate battery production was 2.83GWh, accounting for 42.35% of the total production. Both occupy an absolute dominant position.

According to statistics from Gaogong Industry Research Institute (GGII), the total installed capacity of power batteries in August was about 4.17GWH, with a stable month-on-month growth. Among them, ternary batteries still dominated, and although iron-lithium batteries declined slightly year-on-year, there was a significant improvement, increasing by 48%.

At the beginning of this year, affected by the decline in demand, the overall operating rate of lithium iron phosphate was low, and some manufacturers had to produce in small batches to keep their factories running. At the same time, mainstream battery manufacturers continued to require lithium iron phosphate companies to lower their supply prices. The purchase price given by some factories was already lower than 80,000 yuan/ton, and they fell into a long-term stalemate. In the following six months, lithium iron phosphate fell sharply, and during the shift between the old and new subsidy policies, it experienced a round of destocking process.

After the price of lithium carbonate went down, the cost performance of lithium iron phosphate became more prominent. At present, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate has been basically cleared, and production has begun to resume and stock up, and the demand is expected to increase month-on-month.

At first, my country gradually formed a mainstream technology route for power batteries based on lithium iron phosphate. As the requirements for driving range increased, ternary lithium batteries with higher energy density came later. In the new energy vehicle market in 2015, the proportion of ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate was still "30% to 70%, but in 2016 it became "40% to 60%, and in 2017 it was close to breaking even. In the first half of 2018, ternary lithium has completely surpassed.

This change is closely related to government subsidies. According to the new policy on new energy vehicle subsidies, vehicle subsidies will be linked to driving range and energy density, which has led to the rapid popularity of ternary material batteries with higher energy density.

Although the energy storage density of ternary materials is very high, its safety is not as good as that of lithium iron phosphate. Therefore, commercial vehicles generally require lithium iron phosphate batteries to ensure the safety of passengers. This year, there have been more and more electric vehicle fires, which are closely related to the blind increase in energy density of ternary batteries.

At present, lithium iron phosphate continues to maintain its mainstream position in the bus market and is gradually increasing in the application of special vehicles. In the bus field, lithium iron phosphate accounts for approximately 76%, 81%, and 78% in the fifth, sixth, and seventh batches of the "Recommended Model Catalog for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" in 2018. In the field of special vehicles, lithium iron phosphate accounts for approximately 30%, 32%, and 40% in the fifth, sixth, and seventh batches of the "Catalog" in 2018, respectively, and the application ratio is gradually increasing.

After the implementation of the new subsidy policy, the battery demand for some low-speed special-purpose vehicles shifted from ternary batteries to lithium iron phosphate batteries. In addition, orders for buses from large manufacturers also increased, and the number of orders gradually increased.

With the rise of the energy storage market, in recent years, some power battery companies have laid out energy storage businesses and opened up new application markets for lithium iron phosphate batteries. Extended-range hybrid vehicles are always suitable for the application of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Using lithium iron phosphate batteries in the extended-range electric vehicle market can not only improve the safety of the vehicle, but also support the marketization of extended-range electric vehicles.

As subsidies decline and lithium iron phosphate becomes truly commercialized, its advantages of low cost, long life, and high safety will become apparent in the passenger car and logistics vehicle sectors. Coupled with lithium iron phosphate's dominant position in the bus market and its subsequent application in the energy storage market, the market space is still broad.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.