Faced with constant pessimism, why have new car manufacturers such as NIO ushered in historic opportunities?

NIO successfully went public in the United States, with its stock price soaring and its market value almost doubling. But then, after problems such as battery life were exposed, its stock price fluctuated again.

It's not just NIO. Other new car manufacturers are also facing many common problems: insufficient vehicle manufacturing capabilities, mass production and delivery become a problem; capital consumption is too fast, and continuous financing is needed - mass production and delivery and financing capabilities have become the two key issues that determine the life and death of new car manufacturers.

The elimination round has begun. How many new car-making forces can survive?

There have been many criticisms of new car-making forces being obsessed with PowerPoint. Li Shufu, chairman of Geely Automobile, once said: "Some companies don't understand cars and don't have a lot of money. They make cars to make money in the capital market. The so-called new car-making forces are just fooling the people all day long."

These criticisms are not without reason. There were many new car manufacturers before, but only a few have made a name for themselves now.

At the same time, we should also objectively see that some new car-making forces have completed the difficult journey from 0 to 1 and have indeed started mass production and delivery. Although the speed is relatively slow, it is not PPT car-making after all.

In the CCTV program "Dialogue" in June this year, the host asked the guests a question: How many new car-making forces will survive in the future? Shen Haiyin, CEO of Singularity Motors, and Du Ligang, co-founder of WM Motors, believed that there would be no more than ten, while Li Xiang, chairman of CHJ Automotive, believed that there would be no more than five, and He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xpeng Motors, gave the answer of no more than two.

In fact, for new car manufacturers, if there is no improvement now, there is probably no hope. The cycle from design to delivery of a car is about four years. Now many new car manufacturers have launched new cars and are gradually mass-producing them. Those who fall behind are likely to miss one step and then miss every step.

As the national policy further relaxes foreign investment in new energy vehicles, BBA and Tesla have successively built factories in China. It is expected that the corresponding products will be produced in China around 2020. The golden opportunity period for the development of new car-making forces will end in the next two to three years. For those new car-making forces that have been slow to bring market confidence, they may be forced to withdraw.

A car has more than 30,000 parts, and the supply chain involved in car manufacturing is very complex. We have to admit that new car manufacturers have shortcomings in this regard. In fact, even Tesla faces the same problem. Compared with traditional auto giants, Tesla's production is still pitifully small.

Most of the new domestic car-making forces have been established for less than 4 years, while Tesla, the benchmark in the industry, has only achieved its current results after more than ten years. New car-making forces need time to accumulate strength, and they cannot be completely denied because of their current production capacity shortcomings.

The automobile manufacturing capability and experience are accumulated over a long period of time. When domestic joint venture automakers dominated the market, the development of independent automakers also faced a very difficult situation. But now, independent automakers have swept the domestic market.

New energy vehicles and smart cars are an emerging market. Not all traditional car companies have the technical reserves. In many aspects, traditional car companies also need to start from scratch. The entire market still has a lot of room for growth. This is undoubtedly a great opportunity for new players to compete fairly.

New car-making forces are facing a historic opportunity

Although new car manufacturers lack manufacturing experience, they do not have the anxiety of traditional fuel car manufacturers. Traditional car manufacturers need to consider bright financial reports, and most of them have adopted a cautious and gradual strategy in the fields of new energy vehicles and smart cars.

New car manufacturers can invest everything they have in the fields of new energy vehicles and smart cars, and concentrate their resources on one or two products to create high-quality products. Traditional car companies need to consider the inheritance and iteration between products, follow the overall technology and product routes of the company, and consider whether existing customers can accept them when innovating. New car manufacturers do not have these concerns.

Although automobile manufacturing is complex and difficult, there are mature technical paths to learn from. New car manufacturers can also integrate relevant resources, such as talents and suppliers, and gradually improve their corresponding capabilities. They may not be able to reach the level of traditional car companies in terms of cost control, manufacturing speed, and scale at the beginning, but as long as they gradually accumulate and run-in, as the scale expands and time accumulates, the manufacturing problems will be solved.

On the contrary, as a new thing, smart cars do not have much advantage for traditional car companies. Compared with traditional cars that focus on mechanical performance, smart cars pay more attention to user experience. Many of the new car-making forces have executives from the Internet industry, who are better at grasping user experience.

At present, the development of new energy vehicles relies more on policy support rather than market forces. However, the market demand for intelligent and networked vehicles is considerable. This demand breeds the market power for the upgrading of the automobile industry.

Although Chinese domestic automakers have a rising trend in brand, they are still dominated by mid- and low-end brands. This market is already very crowded, whether it is fuel vehicles or new energy vehicles. With the upgrading of consumption in the automotive industry, the competition in this market will become more brutal.

Most new car manufacturers did not compete for the low-end electric vehicle market, but instead set their sights on the mid-to-high-end market. This is conducive to new car manufacturers to obtain higher gross profit margins. In the future, there will be a large increase in mid-to-high-end new energy vehicles, and there are currently few new energy vehicle competitors in the mid-to-high-end market, so car manufacturers still have many opportunities.

After NIO went public, its market value once surpassed Great Wall, and Tesla's market value surpassed Ford and GM. This is because the market is optimistic about the future development prospects of new energy vehicles and smart cars, and about mid-to-high-end car brands.

If a car brand is positioned at the low end at the beginning, even if its technical strength is greatly improved later, it is difficult to break through the original image by relying on the original brand. New car manufacturers have no brand burden and directly position themselves in the mid-to-high end, which makes them more easily accepted by the market.

Car manufacturing requires a lot of capital investment. Funds are the key to the survival of new car manufacturers. Most new car manufacturers are positioned in the mid-to-high-end market and also consider financing issues. A high-end brand image will make the car manufacturing story sound better and easier to raise funds. The trend of intelligent and connected cars will also become a reality first in mid-to-high-end cars.

China's economy is facing transformation and industrial upgrading. The automobile industry is the focus of China's future economic development and industrial upgrading. Many "outsiders" have entered the automobile industry, indicating that capital is gathering in the automobile industry. Not only is the national level adopting a series of policies to support the automobile industry, but the capital market is also paying more and more attention to the automobile industry.

The elimination of some new car-making forces by the market is not a bad thing for the automotive industry. This is conducive to the gathering of resources to advantageous enterprises. As the number of new car-making forces decreases, capital will not have too many choices in the automotive industry. This is conducive to the next round of financing for powerful new car-making forces.

In fact, regardless of whether the new car-making forces can succeed in the end or how many of them can survive, their influence and contribution to the automotive industry is already a fait accompli. The innovation of the new car-making forces in smart cars and the automotive industry model is actually forcing traditional car companies to reform. This is just like the impact of Tesla on traditional auto giants such as GM and Ford.

China is the world's largest automobile market. In addition to the above advantages, the biggest historical opportunity for new car manufacturers comes from our world's largest market capacity, which means that it has greater inclusiveness and scalability. For new car manufacturers like NIO, what they have to do next is to trial and error and grow.

No matter thunder or rain, holding on means everything.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.