2018 was undoubtedly a difficult year for the Chinese auto market. After 28 years of continuous growth, the Chinese auto market fell into a cold winter without any warning. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, domestic automobile sales in 2018 were 28.0806 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.76%, the first decline in 28 years. Behind these figures, there are certainly some force majeure factors, such as the early implementation of the National VI emission standard, which has caused the slow sales and inventory pressure of the National V models; another example is the increase in recalled vehicles. According to statistics, the total number of vehicle recalls in 2018 was 12.57 million, which has exceeded the scale of 10 million for three consecutive years. Compared with the approximately 235 million vehicles in my country, it means that one in every 20 vehicles has been recalled. But in 2018, the new energy vehicle market went against the trend. New energy vehicles buck the trend In the past year, although the state's subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has been tilted, the subsidy for new energy passenger vehicles has changed from a simple mileage subsidy in the original policy to a comprehensive subsidy related to mileage, battery system energy density, vehicle energy consumption and other indicators. The subsidy policy has begun to favor products and companies with higher battery technology and higher battery energy density. However, in the past year, China's new energy vehicle production and sales still delivered an excellent report card, reaching 1.2705 million and 1.2562 million respectively, up 59.92% and 61.74% year-on-year. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles reached 985,600 and 983,700 respectively, up 47.85% and 50.83% year-on-year; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 283,300 and 270,900 respectively, up 121.97% and 117.98% year-on-year. From the perspective of vehicle models, the growth of new energy vehicles in the past year no longer relies on the sales of low-end models, but has turned to the popularization of high-quality models. Among them, joint venture automakers such as Volkswagen and Toyota have introduced new products in the new energy market. For example, Volkswagen's hybrid models Touareg, Magotan GTE, Corolla Lelink Hybrid E+, etc. Domestic veteran new energy powerhouses BYD, SAIC, and GAC have also begun to upgrade their models. At the same time, 2018 is also known as the "first year of delivery" for new energy vehicle manufacturers. NIO, Xpeng Motors, and Qiantu Motors have gone from "testing the waters" with small-scale deliveries to sprinting towards the goal of delivering 10,000 vehicles in the first year. With the progress of the times, the country's call for energy conservation and emission reduction, and in view of China's specific automobile market environment, new energy vehicles are bound to flourish in the next few decades. Although China's new energy vehicle products are still in the early stages, there are serious technical constraints in terms of reduced battery life, short life, long charging time, and infrastructure construction. But I believe that as long as time passes, these problems will eventually be solved. Why do we believe that the new energy strategy will continue to be implemented in my country? We believe there are two reasons that cannot be ignored. 1. The actual need for national energy security According to public information from the National Bureau of Statistics, China produced a total of 172.748 million tons of oil in the first 11 months of 2018, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. Based on the conversion rate of 1 ton equals 7.33 barrels, the average daily oil production is about 3.79 million barrels, ranking sixth in the world. The top five are Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Canada. Yes, you read that right, China is indeed the sixth largest oil producer in the world. But China imports more oil - in 2018, China imported 461.9 million tons of oil, equivalent to 9.24 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, making it the world's largest importer of crude oil, with a dependence on imported oil as high as 70%. For a modern industrial country, such a high degree of dependence on foreign oil is certainly not something that can make people feel at ease. After all, China is the world's number one manufacturing country, and once there is an energy crisis, it will have a major impact on the whole world. In addition, environmental protection is also a core concern. According to a survey by the United Nations Environmental Protection Organization, 50% of urban air pollution comes from exhaust emissions from fuel vehicles. The British Clean Air and Environmental Protection Association has also published a research report stating that compared with traffic accident victims, 10 times more people die in the UK each year due to air pollution. It can be seen that energy security is largely national security, and automobile exhaust pollution is related to survival safety. The development of zero-emission, low-noise new energy vehicles has become a practical need for the healthy development of the country. 2. The inevitable requirement of industrial transformation and upgrading New energy vehicles have become the direction and trend of the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry. The outline of the 13th Five-Year Plan clearly proposes to implement the strategy of building a strong manufacturing country, two important contents of which are to promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and support the development of strategic emerging industries, which provide strong support for China's automobile industry to promote the strategic transformation of the industry. In addition, from a technical perspective, China's traditional automobile industry has a relatively weak foundation, low technological innovation capabilities, and many key core technologies are controlled by others. There is still a large gap between it and countries with developed automobile industries. Therefore, if we want to achieve overtaking, we need to quickly catch up with traditional automobile technology while taking new energy vehicles as a starting point to achieve the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry. After years of development, China's new energy vehicle industry has made great progress. On the one hand, the market size of China's new energy vehicle industry has gradually increased, and it has mastered some key core technologies such as batteries and motors. The competitive landscape of industry players such as new energy passenger vehicle companies has been initially formed. On the other hand, to support the development of the new energy vehicle industry, China has introduced a series of industrial support policies, and has now formed a policy system that matches national and local support policies. I believe that in the next few decades, China's new energy vehicles will continue to show a blowout market, and various technologies and infrastructure will be increasingly improved. After all, it took more than 100 years for internal combustion engine vehicles to reach today's development status, and new energy vehicles are an emerging product. As long as they are properly controlled, the heights that the industry can reach in the future will be limitless, and the biggest beneficiaries are our consumers. As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity. |
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