“Car keys” come first, will Apple cars be far behind?

In the past two days, Apple's iOS 13 beta system has swept major media - the reason is that the iOS 13.4 beta version brings a "CarKey" interface, through which users with Apple mobile devices can directly unlock their cars through these devices.

Although this feature only opens the door for other companies, considering Apple's nature of taking one step and looking ten steps ahead and the frequent rumors of the "Apple Car" smart car on the Internet, it is hard not to think that it is making early preparations for its own cars.

Although Apple Car is still in the shadows, combined with Apple's tone and industry trends, we can still outline a rough sketch of Apple Car from three aspects: equipment, ecology, and sales model.

The advantages of multi-device interconnection still exist

Ever since iOS defeated WP in the 2010s, Apple realized that although different types of devices will be born in the future, these devices cannot share a "cloud system", but can only strengthen the connection between devices through the cloud, which is the "Apple family bucket" we currently see.

The iPhone acting as a car key mentioned above is obviously also derived from Apple's product thinking. Of course, just doing this step is obviously not enough.

From an industry perspective, the biggest trend in the automotive field right now is undoubtedly autonomous driving. From Apple's frequent road tests and applications for related patents, we can see that Apple has high hopes for this technology. This is mainly because once autonomous driving can be achieved, the driver can be freed from the task of focusing on driving, thereby unleashing greater possibilities for the device.

Considering that Apple has always been a "software company" that earns revenue by distracting consumers, this may also predict that Apple will not rashly launch smart cars before it reaches L4 level autonomous driving technology.

Once Apple has mastered L4 level autonomous driving technology, its products may be very different from current car products. According to Apple's simple thinking, the steering wheel of traditional cars can obviously be removed, and the large screen in front of the driver may further interpret the charm of the "Apple family bucket".

For example, we may be able to use the car's large screen to display the Keynote work done on the Mac, or to video chat with friends. Or, we may be able to control the air conditioning temperature and the songs played in the car on the Apple Watch.

On the other hand, Apple has spared no effort to create a multi-device linkage atmosphere, but for users who do not have Apple devices, there seems to be a huge threshold. For example, users who do not have an iPhone cannot experience the convenience of unlocking their phones. It is not clear how Apple will balance this interference.

In short, after the launch of the Apple Car, it will definitely strengthen the connection with other Apple devices, thereby releasing deeper product vitality. Of course, as a company that is good at creating an ecosystem, Apple will never stop there.

Building an ecosystem from the inside and outside

Looking at Apple’s history, whether it’s Mac, iPod or iPhone, we can find a consistent product soul - ecosystem.

Taking the App Store on Apple's iOS devices as an example, it brought a total revenue of US$50 billion to developers in 2019. Based on Apple's 30% share, Apple got about US$15 billion in revenue out of thin air.

Although in the automotive industry, the price of products can be more imaginative just by relying on hardware and brand, considering that Apple is a mass consumer product company, it will never price its own cars too high and be shelved in the consumer market. On the contrary, Apple may try to lower the price of cars to create a more imaginative ecosystem.

Specifically, the ecosystem that Apple can create in the automotive field is nothing more than internal and external aspects.

From the inside, the design of a fixed space + a large screen is similar to the smart TV in the living room. Content, games, and scenes are all areas where Apple can work hard. In early 2019, Apple picked up the long-abandoned Apple TV and added the Apple TV channels service, which may also indicate that Apple will reuse Apple TV one day in the future.

Considering that the entire autonomous driving industry is far from mature and related industries have not been established, we can only predict Apple’s possible direction in the external ecosystem based on trends and the foreseeable future.

First of all, there is the payment function. Although the connection between cars and money is not as strong as that between mobile phones, considering that parking fees and passing through highway intersections are rigid demands, Apple is likely to transplant the mature Apple Pay on the iPhone and make it Apple's "ETC".

On the other hand, since autonomous driving can operate independently without the driver, Apple may be able to work with car owners to allow Apple cars to become "taxis" during idle periods, helping car owners make money - of course, the 30% "Apple tax" is inevitable.

Direct sales model is an inevitable choice for Apple

Although the main sales channel for cars is currently 4S stores, considering Apple's strong desire for control and its love for reputation, it is very likely to adopt Tesla's direct sales model. Taking Tesla as an example, we only need to place an order online and then go to the nearest sales point to buy a car, just like buying an iPhone.

In fact, this model has three benefits for selling cars.

First, to ensure the interests of users. Under the traditional sales model, selling a bicycle is not profitable. 4S stores can only rely on insurance, license plates and other marginal channels to make money. The direct sales model only makes money from bicycles, and the price is more transparent, which is undoubtedly more user-friendly.

Second, educate users. In the traditional car sales model, the tacit understanding reached between the store and the consumer is that the sales point is for buying and maintaining the car. In the direct-operated store, since the Apple car is a new product, Apple can let the salesperson patiently explain the product to consumers with an attitude of "you are welcome even if you don't buy it", which will have a great effect on popularizing the product;

Third, control inventory. Since automobiles are heavy industrial products with high average order value, the traditional automobile sales model cannot achieve macro-control, which easily leads to overstocking. However, in the direct sales model, user order and purchase data can be communicated in real time. In an ideal situation, it can even achieve a zero inventory model.

In particular, we have to consider that Apple has 506 Apple Stores in 25 countries and regions around the world. This natural sales network will naturally allow Apple Car to reach as many people as possible.

Overall, although Apple Car may not have anything sci-fi in terms of hardware, just like the iPhone 13 years ago, once Apple delegates its own understanding of ecosystem, software, cloud connectivity and other functions, it will make a mediocre product shine with a different charm.

However, we cannot ignore the fact that Apple can launch such an attractive car product based on the realization of L4 level autonomous driving technology. At present, more and more companies, both at home and abroad, have seen the value of autonomous driving and are devoting themselves to research.

Whether Apple can maintain its advantages under the layers of siege remains an unknown.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.