Apple is stepping down from the throne, will the mobile phone industry enter the domestic era?

"Change" seems to be the only unchanging law in the mobile phone industry. Nokia and Motorola once dominated the global mobile phone industry, and Apple emerged as a disruptor, creating the legend of its mobile phone profit accounting for more than 80% of the world's profits. But now Apple's leadership value is being weakened.

The recent release of Apple's iPhone 8/8plus and iPhone X has not dispelled previous doubts about its lack of innovation. It is still unknown whether the iPhone X, equipped with facial recognition technology, can make consumers realize its true value. It has taken the lead in triggering the full-screen craze; launched the first artificial intelligence chip; and made bold attempts in facial recognition, VR, 3D cameras, etc. Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo and other Chinese mainstream mobile phone manufacturers have leapt to a position where they can compete with Apple, Samsung and others in some aspects. Have they ushered in an unprecedented opportunity to overtake in the history of mobile phones?

'Breathe a sigh of relief'

Although Apple recently released three new mobile phones, iPhone 8/8 plus and iPhone X, a relevant person in charge of a Chinese mobile phone manufacturer told reporters that he was relieved to see the innovative technology applications displayed by Apple's new products. Jobs released the first iPhone in 2007. At that time, Nokia had a global market share of about 40%, and the Symbian system was in its heyday. Three years later, Apple's iPhone 4 was significantly revised for the first time. Since then, Apple has successfully defeated Nokia and Motorola, the mobile phone hegemons for many years, and the IOS system has also successfully defeated the Symbian system. However, today, just ten years later, the brand premium brought by Apple's innovation is declining.

According to Sun Yanbiao, president of the First Mobile World Research Institute, the reason behind the relief of Chinese mobile phone manufacturers is that their overall strength has greatly improved. When Apple released a new iPhone, it took Chinese mobile phone manufacturers two or three years to catch up with its innovation pace by applying an innovative technology to the new product. But now, Huawei, OPPO, vivo, Xiaomi, etc. only need two or three months to catch up. There is almost no threshold for the application of innovative technologies, and some even take the lead.

In the second half of this year, there is a joke in the industry that if the new mobile phone is not full-screen, it is embarrassing to hold a press conference. Samsung, LG, Sharp, Huawei, Xiaomi, vivo, OP-PO, Gionee, Nubia, etc., some have already released full-screen flagship mobile phones, and some are about to release them. Even Candy Mobile launched a full-screen mobile phone priced at 1,000 yuan, stretching the scope of the full-screen mobile phone fierce competition from the mid-to-high-end market to the low-end market. Apple, which recently released three new models, iPhone 8/8plus and iPhone X, did not lead the trend in terms of timing, and secondly, only the iPhone X, which represents its innovation level, is a full-screen mobile phone, while iPhone 8/8plus is not.

In the era of mobile phone homogeneity, Sun Yanbiao told reporters that full-screen mobile phones are like "Korean micro-plastic surgery". The improvements in appearance give consumers the impression that the mobile phone has changed a lot, but there is a pain point. The cost has increased exponentially when the screen-to-body ratio of the mobile phone has increased from 85% to 90%, because this brings about the integration of components, centralization of modules, miniaturization of cameras, etc., which requires all components to be customized.

However, full screen is becoming the standard configuration of mobile phones. Because iPhone 8/8 plus is not full screen, the first sale effect is much lower than previous new mobile phone launches. Neil Cybart, an analyst at Above Avalon, said that the sales volume of iPhone 8 in the first week of sale may be the lowest since the release of iPhone 6 in 2014. The sales volume disclosed by a person from China Mobile is quite consistent with what the former said.

Apple's supply chain embarrassment

On the one hand, the iPhone 8 uses an in-cell screen. If the cutting size is changed to make a full screen, the yield rate of the entire screen will drop below 50%. Since the in-cell screen can realize the integration of touch and display, if the in-cell screen is not used, it will go against Apple's pursuit of a slim body.

On the other hand, the iPhone X, which has a full screen, is still contradictory. The phone uses a Samsung OLED screen, but Sun Yanbiao analyzed that this does not seem to be what Apple wants, because Apple iPhone products generally have a market life of 36 months, while OLED screens have a natural defect, and the light decay is 18 months. After using it for a period of time, consumers will find that the phone screen becomes greener and greener, which is obviously inconsistent with Apple's usage cycle. However, in order to use Samsung's folding technology patent, it can only use its OLED screen according to Samsung's requirements.

This highlights the embarrassment of Apple's poor control over its supply chain.

Recently, Apple's ability to control the supply chain for procuring core components, especially new technology OLED screens, has declined. Taiwan panel manufacturer AUO was excluded from the 2017 supplier list, and Samsung became the only supplier of OLED screens for its mobile phones. This goes against the "dual supplier strategy" that Apple has always adhered to. Recently, Apple has frequently communicated with BOE on cooperation matters, which shows its urgency to change the status quo. It also indirectly reflects that China's strength in upstream core components has been greatly enhanced.

Ren Zhengfei said in a recent internal speech at Huawei's Noah's Ark Laboratory symposium that he never wanted to overthrow Apple, and that the peak of AI investment is an opportunity. Huawei released an artificial intelligence chip called Kirin 970 at IFA on September 2. This chip will be used in the high-end flagship mate 10 to be released on October 16. This new phone is analyzed to have the latest technologies such as iris recognition or 3D camera, while Xiaomi Mix 2, vivo x20, etc. are equipped with face recognition technology.

"It only takes two or three months for Chinese mobile phone manufacturers such as Huawei, OP-PO, vivo, and Xiaomi to apply new technologies such as AI, AR, and 3D cameras to Apple's iPhone X. For today's Chinese mobile phone manufacturers, there is no particularly high technical threshold and implementation cycle," Sun Yanbiao told reporters.

Moreover, it takes a process for each new technology to become popular. It is still unknown when the 3D camera face recognition technology on the iPhone X will lead to consumer demand in this regard. The process from the education market to the real market explosion has brought some opportunities for Chinese mobile phone manufacturers to survive and develop, because Chinese manufacturers are very good at grasping consumer needs, focusing on user experience, and following up on new technologies very quickly.

Recently, Google, the creator of the Android system, a rival of the iOS system, spent $1.1 billion to acquire the HTC mobile phone team. This is seen as a move by Google to avoid the dominance of the iOS system. This is bound to bring some new pressure to Apple. Since most Chinese mobile phone brands use the Android system, this undoubtedly gives Chinese mobile phone manufacturers an opportunity to catch up.

In China, the world's second largest economy, Apple's sales have been declining for six consecutive quarters. In order to reverse the downward trend in China, Apple recently created a new position in China and appointed Ge Yue as the first vice president and general manager of Apple Greater China (including mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan).

Apple does not have any executives in other regions. Ge Yue is not only facing the unsatisfactory first-time sales of iPhone 8, but also the problem of how to make the upcoming high-priced iPhone X gain recognition from Chinese consumers amid strong competition from Chinese mobile phone brands.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.