Bitcoin has risen from 8,000 to over 100,000 this year. Who is "speculating like crazy"?

I once had a pile of bitcoins in front of me, but I didn't cherish them. I regretted it when I lost them. This is the most painful thing in the world. If God gives me another chance, I will say to these bitcoins - I love you. If I have to add a deadline to this love, I hope it is - this year!

If you have to use two words to describe Bitcoin this year, it is undoubtedly "crazy".

The price of Bitcoin is the most convincing indicator of how crazy it is: from around 8,000 yuan at the beginning of the year, it quickly broke through the 10,000 yuan mark, and then broke through the 20,000 yuan mark... and then on the evening of December 7, the global Bitcoin price broke through 100,000 yuan, setting a new record. On the morning of December 8, it hit a high of 19,400 US dollars, close to 130,000 yuan.

Some people say that the rise of Bitcoin has made people doubt their lives. So, what exactly is the reason for the new round of surge? Some analysts pointed out that the launch of Bitcoin futures on the world's largest futures trading platform may be one of the reasons for the rise in Bitcoin prices.

Analysis: Continued rise may be caused by the involvement of international speculators

In September this year, the central bank issued a document to rectify the domestic digital currency market. Starting from November 1, all domestic Bitcoin exchanges were shut down. Affected by domestic regulatory policies, the price of Bitcoin briefly plunged, but then it rose rapidly. In just over two months, the increase exceeded 300%.

According to OKCoin International Station market data, on the afternoon of December 7, the price of Bitcoin broke through US$15,000, and then fluctuated upward, reaching a high of US$19,400 on the morning of December 8, close to RMB 130,000.

"The rise in Bitcoin prices is related to recent good news, such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Commodity Exchange, which are about to launch Bitcoin futures." An overseas trading platform person told the reporter of the "Daily Economic News", "I personally think that Bitcoin prices have not yet reached their peak, and it is hard to predict when they will reach it, but it is difficult for Bitcoin to fall all of a sudden."

The person told reporters that RMB transactions are currently not allowed, but many domestic exchanges have gone overseas and continue to operate international sites in Hong Kong and other places, where they can trade in US dollars. There is also OTC (over-the-counter) trading, which is the Taobao platform for Bitcoin. C2C transactions can be conducted, and users can still buy Bitcoin.

"Bitcoin's market value is already very large. If it continues to rise on the basis of such a large market value, there must be a large influx of capital. I think it is the intervention of international speculators." Xiao Lei, a senior digital currency analyst, told the reporter of "Daily Economic News".

As the price of Bitcoin soars, the overseas expansion of domestic Bitcoin trading platforms is accelerating. Recently, Li Lin, Chairman of Huobi Group, and Yoshitaka Kitao, Chairman of Japan's SBI Group (formerly "SoftBank Investment Group"), signed a cooperation agreement. Huobi Group and SBI Group will establish two exchanges in Japan: SBI Virtual Currency and Huobi Japan, to jointly develop the Asian and global digital asset markets. The new exchange will be launched in early 2018, providing currency-to-currency and yen transactions.

Reminder: Digital currency has high returns but also high risks

As for the reasons for the rise in Bitcoin prices, Huobi Blockchain Application Research Institute also pointed out that the launch of Bitcoin futures on the world's largest futures trading platform may be one of the reasons.

CME Group announced on December 1 that the new Bitcoin futures contract will be issued on December 18, but will be available for trading on December 17 through the exchange's electronic Globex platform. The initial margin for the contract will be 35%, including position and intraday price limits. The affirmation of Bitcoin by the world's largest futures exchange means that traditional finance is gradually trying to accept Bitcoin, and the successful launch will bring a chain effect.

CME Group, the full name of which is Chicago Mercantile Exchange, is the largest futures exchange in the United States. It was listed on NASDAQ in 2002 and completed its initial public offering. In 2007, it acquired the Chicago Board of Trade (mainly trading agricultural products, Treasury futures and futures options), and in 2008 it acquired the New York Mercantile Exchange (mainly trading crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil and other energy futures).

Xiao Lei analyzed to the reporter of Daily Economic News that in the short term, CME futures have a positive effect on the Bitcoin market. "International investors were previously concerned about regulatory issues, and there was no point of intervention in the product itself. The liquidity and system of general spot exchanges are difficult to guarantee security. The listing of CME futures has strengthened the confidence of international institutional investors to participate. In addition, asset management companies in some countries are preparing to issue public Bitcoin funds, and regulators are also considering it, which shows that Bitcoin is gradually being accepted by the mainstream market."

Wang Yongli, vice chairman of China International Futures Corporation, wrote that the price fluctuation of Bitcoin is very large, which meets the characteristics of being included in futures trading. Futures trading requires a real-name system and has strict requirements on the legality of funds. Generally, it does not involve the actual delivery of goods, but reverse hedging at the expiration of the contract to end the transaction. Therefore, the launch of Bitcoin futures trading should also be the same. It is not limited by the actual delivery volume of Bitcoin, which can allow more people to participate, express their views or wishes on the price of Bitcoin more widely, and better find a "reasonable price" that meets the expectations of most people. Therefore, the launch of futures trading is actually to include Bitcoin in the standardized market trading and management, and it will not necessarily drive its price up sharply as many people imagine.

"Many countries support Bitcoin, while some countries oppose it. For investors, they should first understand the technology and historical background of blockchain and digital currency. Compared with other investments, the digital currency market has high returns but also high risks." said the person from the overseas trading platform.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.