People's Daily comments on Bitcoin: The so-called advantages are all a cover for speculation

In the past 2017, the soaring and plummeting of Bitcoin has undoubtedly become one of the hottest topics in the world: the price soared about 20 times in one year, and fell more than 40% in one day. At the beginning of the new year, Bitcoin continued its recent decline, and the price fell below $13,000 per coin, but compared with the price of less than 1,000 yuan at the beginning of last year, the price of Bitcoin still deviates from its value. Looking back at the days when Bitcoin was first introduced and no one was interested in it, a man once bought a pizza with 10,000 Bitcoins. Faced with today's market, some people regret it, and more people are worried and doubtful: How big is the bubble of Bitcoin? Is it a replica of the tulip bubble?

The existence of a bubble in the price of Bitcoin is a question that needs no discussion. Whether from the increase or the value of the currency itself, Bitcoin is full of bubbles. Its so-called advantages: scarcity, authenticity, strong liquidity, transparency and decentralization, etc., are just a cover for speculation and cannot support its roller coaster-like rise. The recent plunge is very telling.

One of the sources of Bitcoin's bubble is the hype of new forms of speculation. On the one hand, the mystery of Bitcoin is hyped, including but not limited to the mystery of the inventor's background, the aura of cryptocurrency, and the fact that total volume control will not lead to inflation. On the other hand, the hype of its "decentralization", that is, it is not controlled by any country, government or financial institution, and has safe and "unfettered" properties. In addition, Bitcoin itself has no price fluctuation restrictions in its trading mechanism, nor a completely unified trading platform, which gives speculators the imagination of getting rich overnight. Coupled with new ways of playing such as Bitcoin forks and the initial issuance of tokens, its price has once soared.

How can the value of Bitcoin, which has no value support, soar? Another possibility is that there is a trading conspiracy. Following the trajectory of Bitcoin from cold to hot and from low to high, it is not difficult to find that the so-called "advantages" mentioned above are inherent in Bitcoin, so why did it become popular overnight? This is worth pondering. According to Bloomberg, to date, about 40% of the world's Bitcoin is controlled by only about 1,000 people. People in the Bitcoin circle call it "white whale". At the same time, from the historical evolution of Bitcoin development, until the eve of its price soaring, the currency was only traded in a "small circle" on a few platforms. This easily makes people think of the possibility of trading conspiracy - those who hold a large number of Bitcoins naturally have the motivation to drive up the price of the currency to cash out.

Bitcoin is called a currency but it is not a currency. Looking around the world, only Germany among the major countries recognizes it as an equivalent to "private currency". Since it is not a currency, financial regulatory authorities of various countries will naturally not regulate Bitcoin like they regulate currency. In this way, Bitcoin is gradually becoming a special "equivalent" wandering in the gray area.

Recently, Bitcoin and its derivative financial transactions are in full swing. Many exchanges in the United States and other countries have approved Bitcoin futures trading, but they do not regulate it. This gives Bitcoin a seemingly "legal" coat, and also makes Bitcoin more like the tulip bubble in the Netherlands in the 17th century: "dealers" with clear purposes make a lot of money, while blind followers know the bitterness and sweetness. Compared with the high point of $20,000 per coin, the current price of Bitcoin is expected to fall sharply, but if the government strengthens supervision in the future, or its own capacity limitations lead to contraction, the degree of Bitcoin de-bubble will be deeper. In the past, the price of Bitcoin has been cut in half, and its future trend is particularly worthy of vigilance.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.