The glory is gone: Yu'ebao's annualized rate of return is approaching 4%
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On July 29, the 7-day annualized yield of Yu'ebao was 4.1840%, a drop of nearly 40% from the highest point of 6.7630% at the beginning of the year, and not much different from the 1-year fixed deposit rate of 3.25%. In the view of industry insiders, the high returns of various Internet financial products are mainly derived from bank agreement deposits. With the four major banks publicly stating that they will not accept agreement deposits of Internet financial products, coupled with the current overall market liquidity tending to be loose, the money market interest rate is downward, and the decline in the returns of Internet financial products is an inevitable result, and the yield breaking "4" is also a high probability event. From falling below 6% on March 2, to falling below 5.5% on March 25, to falling below 5% on May 11, and then to the 7-day annualized yield of 4.184% on July 29, the yield of Yu'ebao has been declining since the beginning of this year. The high-yield myth of the Internet "baby" army represented by Yu'ebao is being shattered, and the annualized yield is approaching 4%, which is only slightly more than the normal bank deposit rate. At the same time, the yields of many bank wealth management products are catching up, and most of them remain at around 5%. With the high-yield halo of Yu'ebao gone, is Internet financial management still attractive? Yu'ebao's yield continues to decline Since Yu'ebao was launched in June 2013, it has attracted many investors with its flexible operation mode and low threshold, high yield, strong liquidity and fragmented financial management model. At the end of the first quarter of this year, Yu'ebao's scale was close to 500 billion yuan, and the number of users exceeded 81 million. It once led to the emergence of various Internet "babies" including Wealth Management, Value-added Bao, and Full Amount Bao, which completely subverted the traditional bank financial management model. However, in just one year, Yu'ebao went from being sought after by tens of thousands of people to being forgotten by the crowd. On July 29, Yu'ebao's 7-day annualized yield was 4.1840%, a drop of nearly 40% compared with the highest point of 6.7630% at the beginning of the year, and not much different from the 1-year fixed deposit rate of 3.25%. Other Internet "baby" products also fell. The annualized yield of Baidu's Baizhuan 7-day product fell from more than 6% at the beginning of the year to the current 4.42%. Suning's Lingqianbao fell from more than 7% at the beginning of the year to 4.3%. NetEase Cashbao also fell to 4.5%. There are even nearly 10 "baby" products whose yields have fallen below 4%, such as Wanjia Cashbao and Tiantian Wealth Management Bao. In the eyes of industry insiders, the high returns of various Internet wealth management products mainly come from bank agreement deposits. With the four major banks publicly stating that they will not accept agreement deposits of Internet wealth management products, coupled with the current overall market liquidity tending to be loose, the money market interest rate is downward, and the decline in the returns of Internet wealth management products is an inevitable result. The yield breaking "4" is also a high probability event. Against this background, funds have flowed back from Yu'ebao to banks. Data shows that 130 billion yuan and 356 billion yuan entered Yu'ebao in the fourth quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014, respectively, but fell sharply to 33 billion yuan in the second quarter. At the same time, the high risk of Yu'ebao has also been paid attention to by the market. According to statistics, in the third quarter of 2013, 70% of Yu'ebao's funds were invested in products with a maturity of less than 60 days, while in the second quarter of this year, this proportion dropped to 43%. At the same time, the proportion of products with a maturity of more than 90 days in its asset allocation soared to 33%, a further increase from 30% in the first quarter. In other words, in order to continue to provide high returns, Yu'ebao has begun to show signs of maturity mismatch. Not only that, Yu'ebao has also begun to invest more and more in assets with repurchase agreements. In the first quarter, the proportion of Yu'ebao's investment in such products was 3.5%, and soared to 9% in the second quarter. Bank-type "Baobao" strikes back While Internet "Baobao" has stepped down from the "altar", it has also been frequently besieged by bank-type "Baobao". Since the beginning of this year, more and more banks have launched their own "Bao" products. So far, there are 11 banks that have launched "Baobao" products. Compared with the gradual fatigue of Internet "Baobao", bank-type "Baobao" products, as latecomers, have begun to show a trend of catching up, with yields basically hovering around 5%, generally higher than Yu'ebao. For example, the 7-day annualized yield of the Industrial Bank's treasurer wallet on July 15, 2014 was 5.0220%. Not only is the yield much higher than that of Internet "baby", but in terms of convenience, bank-type "baby" is also not inferior. For example, Bohai Bank's Tianjinbao, with a minimum purchase of 0.01 yuan, no fast withdrawal limit, no need to subscribe and then redeem, can be directly withdrawn from ATMs and POS machines. In addition, when investors accumulate funds in their Tianjinbao accounts to 50,000 yuan or 100,000 yuan and will not use them within a certain period of time, the bank also provides diversified financial products with higher returns such as 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year terms. In terms of redemption time, when the cumulative transfer amount of Yu'ebao is greater than 50,000 yuan, it may take two working days, while bank-type "baby" represented by ICBC's salary treasure can withdraw money in real time. Returning to the essence of cash management tools As we all know, the income of Yu'ebao is the income of Tianhong Zenglibao money market fund, which is the money market fund in the usual sense. Money funds have strict investment targets and can only invest in low-risk products such as interbank deposits, short-term government bonds, and bonds. Risk and return are proportional. Therefore, money funds are a stable and highly liquid cash management tool. However, money funds are not equivalent to deposits, and theoretically there is still the possibility of losses. Industry insiders analyzed that the essence of money funds is a cash financial management tool. The normal return level of money funds in the past few years was about 3%. From last year to this year, the overall market interest rate was high, so the return of money funds also rose. By the end of last year and during the Spring Festival this year, the return of money funds reached the peak in recent years, once reaching an abnormal state of 6%. Some companies also unilaterally promoted a return rate of 7% to 8%, misleading investors' psychological expectations. In fact, these seasonal factors, subsidies, etc. are unsustainable, and the return rate of money funds will return to normal levels. According to Wind data statistics, from 2009 to 2013, the average annualized return rate of money funds in each year was 1.38%, 1.78%, 3.39%, 3.77% and 4.17% respectively. Obviously, money market funds have never been high-yield investment products. Tianhong Fund said that the original intention of launching Yu'ebao was to customize a fund product for Alipay users based on the concept of funds entering daily life, so that users can manage their finances while shopping and living, adding an additional value-added service. Industry insiders said that as the essence of money market funds, Internet "baby" products such as Yu'ebao will become more prominent as cash management tools as their yields gradually decline, and their ever-expanding functions such as shopping and transfers are the source of their long-term vitality. As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity. |
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