China Automobile Dealers Association: Analysis of China's automobile export market in July 2023

After years of plateauing at the million-unit level, China's auto exports finally broke through in 2021. After a sharp decline in the global economic downturn from 2013 to 2016, the export growth rate gradually stabilized and improved from 2017 to 2020, with annual exports remaining at around 1 million units. In 2020, exports reached 1.08 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 13%. It then entered a period of high growth.

Due to the impact of the global epidemic and Tesla's domestic production, China's automobile exports have achieved huge sales and unit price breakthroughs. From January to July 2023, China's automobile exports achieved 2.78 million units, with a continued strong growth of 69%. As long as there is stable market demand internationally, there is still huge room for the development of China's automobile exports in the future.

The sales volume for the whole year of 2020 reached 1.085 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%. The sales volume in the export market in 2021 was 2.187 million units, a year-on-year increase of 102%.

The export market sales in 2022 reached 3.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 55%, mainly due to insufficient overseas supply and the substantial enhancement of the export competitiveness of Chinese auto companies. In the past two years, China's exports have grown significantly due to the international epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

In July 2023, China exported 438,000 cars, with a continued strong growth of 55%. From January to July 2023, China exported 2.78 million cars, with a continued strong growth of 69%. Compared with the gradual recovery of domestic car sales, the performance of the export market is still very strong. The main driving force this year is still the improvement of the competitiveness of Chinese products and the breakthrough in the European and American markets. The international brands in the Russian market under the Russia-Ukraine crisis have been fully replaced by Chinese cars, especially the huge export increase brought by the improvement of China's new energy export competitiveness.

Monthly trend of vehicle exports

From the monthly trend, exports in recent years still show seasonal characteristics, showing the characteristics of a roller coaster with a peak and a decline in the summer. The auto market started strongly in 2022, but from February to April, affected by the Shanghai epidemic, the export volume showed a downward trend month by month, and continued to rise from May to September. However, under the global epidemic, due to problems in the overseas supply chain, China's auto exports have risen strongly.

Exports will continue to be strong in 2023, maintaining sales volume in the fourth quarter of 2022, reflecting a significant increase in the global competitiveness of China's automobile industry.

China's automobile exports reached 438,000 units in July 2023, and exports in July continued to maintain a historically high trend. Due to the high base brought about by the recovery of Shanghai in 2022, exports in July this year increased by more than 55%, so the situation of China's automobile exports has continued to surge.

Structural characteristics of automobile exports

The export car market in 2017-2019 has been growing relatively in the same period. In 2021, the export of complete vehicles (including chassis) was 2.19 million units, with a growth rate of 102%, which is a very good performance. The four-wheel drive SUV and other passenger cars performed well in exports in 2021-2022.

From January to July 2023, automobile exports are strong across the board, with passenger cars being the main export product, with the highest growth rate of 86%. Among them, four-wheel drive SUVs and unlisted passenger cars have good exports. This year, the export performance of buses and special vehicles is average.

From January to July 2023, the customs exported 400,000 trucks, a year-on-year increase of 30%. Compared with the sluggish domestic truck market, the export performance of all types of trucks has rebounded recently.

From a structural perspective, the export performance of passenger cars has increased in the exports of unlisted passenger cars. In 2023, the export of unlisted passenger cars accounted for 36% of passenger cars.

Among trucks, tractors performed well, while light truck exports declined. Among buses, light buses performed poorly.

New energy vehicle export structure characteristics

The export volume of new energy vehicles before 2019 was large, but passenger cars were basically mainly micro low-speed electric vehicles, and the actual number of mainstream new energy models was not large.

The export structure and quantity of new energy passenger vehicles have improved. New energy exports performed well from 2020 to 2022, with a total of 1.12 million new energy vehicles exported in 2022.

From January to July 2023, 940,000 new energy vehicles were exported, a year-on-year increase of 96%; among them, 900,000 new energy passenger vehicles were exported in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 105%, accounting for 96% of new energy vehicle exports. The export of new energy special vehicles also grew rapidly.

The export growth rate of passenger cars in 2023 will be stronger than that in 2022. The export of pure electric trucks is very strong, which is a good performance.

In 2023, new energy vehicles accounted for 40% of passenger car exports, while new energy vehicles accounted for 7% of truck exports and 15% of bus exports, reflecting the high recognition of China's new energy passenger vehicles at home and abroad.

Overseas market structure of automobile exports

Regional characteristics of export manufacturers

The importance of Shanghai to China's exports is extremely obvious. In 2021, Shanghai accounted for 23% of China's exports; in 2022, Shanghai accounted for 24% of China's exports; from January to July 2023, Shanghai accounted for 20.3% of China's exports. This is mainly because Shanghai's local companies are relatively excellent, especially SAIC Passenger Vehicle and Tesla, which have relatively strong export volumes, so they have formed a large growth performance, but SAIC-GM's export performance is stable.

Anhui's export performance is relatively strong, mainly due to Chery's relatively strong export performance.

The contribution of automobile exports in Zhejiang, Chongqing, Shandong, Beijing and Tianjin has declined significantly. Tianjin's export performance in 2022 is relatively strong, mainly due to the relatively strong export performance of new energy vehicles. Tianjin's automobile exports in 2023 are relatively weak.

Regional trend analysis

This year, the Russian market has undergone a huge change, and other foreign capital has withdrawn, so China's exports to Russia are also relatively large. Last year, most of the exports were to Belgium. This year, the European economy is sluggish, but the market share of Germany and the UK has increased.

Chile's auto market plummeted by 50%, but it was relatively strong in the past few years. Asia is still dominated by Saudi Arabia and Bangladesh. Mexico's market has been relatively strong recently.

The average export price of automobiles was US$16,000 in 2021 and US$18,000 in 2022. This year it rose to US$20,000. The quality of exports this year has basically remained stable compared with last year's average price.

Monthly increase and decrease trend of vehicle exports

In 2023, vehicle exports will mainly target markets such as Russia, Mexico, Australia, and the United Kingdom. In July, markets such as Bangladesh, Chile, and Vietnam declined significantly; both the Mexican and Russian markets performed relatively strongly, and even the Russian market became a core market for growth.

From January to July 2023, the markets with relatively large increases are Russia, Europe, North America, and Asia. Russia, Mexico, Australia, etc. are all very strong.

Overall, the global epidemic has brought certain promotion to China's automobile market exports. Due to overseas conflicts and the improvement in the cost-effectiveness of Chinese automobiles, China's exports to various countries have also increased to a certain extent.

Analysis on regional changes in new energy exports

With Tesla's entry into China, China's auto export pattern has changed. In 2023, the regions with relatively strong exports of new energy vehicles are Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Hubei, etc.

At present, micro electric vehicles in the northern region have a greater advantage in the export of new energy vehicles, and low-speed electric vehicles in Tianjin, Beijing and Hebei have relatively strong characteristics.

Judging from the current export growth, Shanghai's growth is relatively large, which is mainly due to the relatively good demand in SAIC's passenger car export market.

Analysis of changes in export countries

The effects of overseas bases for automobile exports in the early stage were not ideal. In 2020, automobile exports were mainly realized in Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Egypt, Chile and other countries, with sharp fluctuations.

The export structure of automobiles improved in 2021, mainly to countries such as Belgium, Chile, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Bangladesh, and Egypt.

In 2022, the main markets for automobile exports will be Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Chile, Belgium, Australia, the Philippines, Russia, etc., with many underdeveloped countries.

In 2023, the main markets for automobile exports will be Russia, Mexico, Belgium, Australia, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom and other countries, with the European and American markets showing strong performance. Recently, relatively developed countries such as Australia, Belgium and the United Kingdom have improved their performance.

The target market demand for automobile exports fluctuates greatly. In the early stage, exports were promoted by countries such as Iran, Mexico and Bangladesh, which suffered heavy losses under the epidemic. Recently, countries such as Chile and Egypt have also suffered export losses.

Analysis of changes in exports to Russia

In 2022, China exported 160,000 units to Russia, and from January to July 2023, it exported 464,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 607%. Russia suddenly became the largest market for Chinese automobile exports. This is another major change in China's automobile exports after 15 years. At that time, Chinese independent brands entered the Russian market and performed well, but with Russia's policy of imposing huge tariffs on Chinese automobiles, Chinese automobiles almost withdrew from Russia that year.

As other countries’ cars have recently withdrawn from Russia, Chinese car companies have quickly ensured Russia’s vehicle supply needs. Currently, Chinese car companies should be safe in Russia for the time being, but they still need to be cautious.

China's exports of products such as tractors and heavy trucks have increased countless times, which is also a good performance.

New energy passenger vehicle export structure characteristics

In 2023, exports to European countries such as Belgium and the United Kingdom and Southeast Asia such as Thailand will be the two main destinations. Recently, Spain, Australia, Thailand, and the Philippines have performed strongly.

Passenger car export trends by category

Passenger car exports by displacement

The displacement of exported passenger cars is mainly in the range of 1 liter to 1.5 liters, which is also the comprehensive advantage of China's independent passenger car products.

Passenger vehicle export structure characteristics

The export growth rate of the truck market has not been strong in recent years, and its share in the automobile export market has continued to shrink slightly.

The main force in the truck market is gasoline and diesel trucks below 5 tons, and there is also strong demand for diesel heavy-duty trucks above 20 tons.

As the overseas epidemic gradually eases, coupled with rising mineral prices, China's truck exports have been boosted, effectively offsetting domestic downward pressure.

Changing characteristics of truck export market

The top truck export markets have generally performed stably. The main exporters performed well in 2022.

Truck exports from Russia and Mexico were strong from January to July 2023; truck exports from Chile and Vietnam declined.

Passenger car export trends by category

Passenger car export

Due to the outbreak of the epidemic, the global demand for buses has declined to a certain extent, resulting in a continuous shrinkage in China's bus exports in the past two years, from 64,000 units in 2019 to 37,000 units in 2021.

In 2023, the world demand will recover after the epidemic, and China's bus exports will recover to 39,000 units from January to July. The export of pure electric buses will continue to recover.

Changing characteristics of the bus export market

The main markets for China's bus exports are relatively scattered, mainly in underdeveloped countries. The markets are relatively complex, making it difficult to export in an orderly and continuous manner. This year's export growth is in Saudi Arabia, Peru, Russia and other markets, while Vietnam and other countries also had strong demand for buses in July. The shrinkage is in developing countries, with large declines in markets such as Egypt and Venezuela.