How long can the iPhone 6 slap the mobile phone futures model in the face last?

Smartphones are no longer a scarce product. The comprehensive improvement of hardware performance has made entry-level products sufficient to meet the basic needs of users. The intensified competition among manufacturers has also made it difficult for a single manufacturer to have an absolute cost-effective advantage. Coupled with the fact that consumers are becoming more rational, the sales model of futures mobile phones may be unsustainable.

Last Friday, the iPhone 6 was released. Since the Chinese mainland was not included in the first release but the demand was particularly strong, Apple "scalpers" around the world had a feast. But for Apple fans who wanted to get the iPhone 6 as soon as possible, the scalpers' snatching of goods and sky-high prices made them hate it very much. So many people naturally complained why Apple could not sell it freely, and questioned whether Apple was engaging in hunger marketing again and suspected that it was selling futures.

However, according to the news from the industry chain, Apple's first batch of supply has reached 5 million units, which is really not a small amount. However, compared with the total order volume of more than 10 million units that Apple received in the first three days after the sale, this supply capacity is obviously far from enough, so it is inevitable to be labeled as a "futures". In fact, this situation of supply and demand is not unique to Apple in the mobile phone market. Since its release, Xiaomi mobile phones have gone through four generations of products. Each generation of products has been in a state of "one machine is hard to find" for more than half a year. Since 2014, the e-commerce brands Honor and Dashen under Huawei, Coolpad and other manufacturers have repeatedly fallen into a situation of supply and demand due to their "super high cost performance". The latest cases are OnePlus and Meizu's MX4. Although the official claims that they will never do futures, consumers' needs are still difficult to meet. And they have all been awarded the "honorary" title of futures mobile phones by netizens without exception. Why do mobile phones that were once easily available become "futures" at any time after entering the era of smart phones?

In this regard, the most common explanation given by domestic mobile phone manufacturers is the need to increase production capacity, and the reason for "climbing" is mostly due to "too complicated processes" and "insufficient upstream raw material supply". From the perspective of the industrial chain, these reasons are indeed possible. But what is strange is that the "climbing" time for domestic mobile phone manufacturers is always very, very long. Take Apple iPhone as an example. Even if the market popularity is very high, the supply and demand can often be balanced after three months. However, many domestic manufacturers still cannot sell their products openly half a year after the product is launched. Why is this?

Obviously, this is not a simple capacity problem. The reason is that many manufacturers use the shortage of supply to create a topic effect and conduct free marketing. On the other hand, Internet mobile phones overemphasize cost-effectiveness and even advocate cost-based pricing, which leads to unprofitable or even loss-making sales in the early stage. Manufacturers sometimes have to "slow down" in the later production process to wait for the cost of components to drop to form profit margins. This is indeed an effective way for enterprises to reduce operating risks, but it is really unfair to consumers.

However, this unfairness will not last long. Smartphones are no longer a scarce product. The all-round improvement of hardware performance has made entry-level products sufficient to meet the basic needs of users. The intensified competition among manufacturers has also made it difficult for a single manufacturer to have an absolute cost-effective advantage. In addition, consumers are becoming more rational, and the sales model of futures mobile phones may be unsustainable. Therefore, manufacturers should try to spend more time on product competitiveness and brand premium, and avoid using tricks such as artificial control in the sales process, otherwise they may shoot themselves in the foot.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.